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71.
72.
Incomplete information is a necessary condition for any real effects produced by monetary impulses. An alternative to the local-global inference problem is explored in this paper. Agents are confronted with permanent and transitory shocks. Even with full knowledge about the stochastic structure their best perception at any particular time will usually be erroneous. Prices for each period are set at the beginning of the period on the basis of market conditions. The realization of the shock process thus creates a short-run ‘disequilibrium’ absorbed by inventory adjustments. This adjustment translates perceived transitory monetary shocks into serially correlated output movements. The analysis proceeds within the context of rational expectations It offers a generalization of equilibrium analysis in two respects. Prices are always in equilibrium relative to perceived conditions, but they do not reflect all ongoing shocks. Quantity adjustments reflect the perceived transitory shocks. The framework used involves moreover a stock-flow interaction operated by inventory adjustments. The stock-flow interaction imposes at any time a future expected adjustment path (for price-level and quantities) to the system's unique stock equilibrium. A major implication of the analysis resolves a puzzle experienced in a recent paper by Robert Hall. It reconciles intertemporal substitution with lagged effects of monetary impulses. It also reconciles small and inconclusive cyclic movements in real wages with the occurrence of production function and large variations in unemployment. Lastly, the nature of the inference problem determined by the pattern of incomplete information produces serially correlated movements conditioned on large permanent shocks. 相似文献
73.
Investment decision processes typically involve the selection of projects, the timing of their initiation and the determination of the amount to be invested in each time period. A linear programming model considered appropriate for solving such models is described, in which the multi-dimensional criterion function is expressed as a linear combination of the appropriately-weighted objectives. An empirical application is then discussed, the objectives of the firm being the maximization of tax-free cash and assets on hand at the end of the planning period. Finally, the appropriate length of the planning horizon, and some approaches to capital budgeting under non-certainty, are discussed. 相似文献
74.
75.
Allan Low 《Development Southern Africa》1984,1(3-4):294-318
In this paper a household economics theory of farm‐household production in the Southern African context is presented which (a) places a new interpretation on the causes of low productivity per person and unit of land in the African farming sector, (b) demonstrates that even where improved food crop technology is widely adopted it may have a very limited impact on marketed production, and (c) contributes to an understanding of why Africa's food production per person continues to fall despite per capita aid inflows which have exceeded those for any other continent over the last decade. 相似文献
76.
This paper investigates the sensitivity of the computed loss from holding monetary items to alternative numerical estimating techniques. Using data from 38 companies for the fiscal year 1980-81, we find that estimation of the loss from holding monetary items is robust with respect to the calculating technique utilized, provided the monetary base is broadly defined. The implications of this for “market model” type studies of the impact of inflation adjustments are discussed. 相似文献
77.
Allan P. Layton 《The Australian economic review》1987,20(1):39-45
Using the methodology of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Boehm and Moore (1984) have recently constructed leading and coincident indexes of Australian cyclical economic growth. The present article examines the reliability of the leading index by investigating the coherence between these two measures of economic activity at different cycle-lengths using the technique of cross-spectral analysis. 相似文献
78.
It appears that the agricultural economics literature lacks much evidence upon which we can judge the performance of statutory boards as marketing institutions. This paper reports the achievements of the New Zealand Apple and Pear Marketing Board in two areas of supply diversion—the allocation of fruit between fresh and process markets, and the allocation of fresh fruit sales over time. Results indicate that the Board has achieved considerable gains for producers in the first of these areas, while in the second its behaviour has favoured consumers. 相似文献
79.
Allan Cochrane 《Local Economy》1992,7(3):273-278
Commission of the European Communities, Directorate-General for Regional Policy, 1991: Europe 2000. Outlook for the Development of the Community's Territory. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, no price stated.
Kennedy, R. 1991: London. World City Moving into the 21st Century. London: Her Majesty's Stationery Office, £24.95 cloth.
Sheffield Economic Regeneration Committee, undated: Sheffield 2000. Phase One. Sheffield: Sheffield Economic Regeneration Committee, £7.50 in Sheffield, £25.00 outside Sheffield.
Stanworth, J. and Stanworth, C. 1991: Work 2000. The Future for Industry, Employment and Society. London: Paul Chapman Publishing, £15.95 cloth. 相似文献
Kennedy, R. 1991: London. World City Moving into the 21st Century. London: Her Majesty's Stationery Office, £24.95 cloth.
Sheffield Economic Regeneration Committee, undated: Sheffield 2000. Phase One. Sheffield: Sheffield Economic Regeneration Committee, £7.50 in Sheffield, £25.00 outside Sheffield.
Stanworth, J. and Stanworth, C. 1991: Work 2000. The Future for Industry, Employment and Society. London: Paul Chapman Publishing, £15.95 cloth. 相似文献
80.
Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts have been increasingly accepted globally by both risk managers and regulators as a tool to identify and control exposure to financial market risk. However, modern portfolios are characterized by a constantly changing composition of security holdings that reflect portfolio managers’ strategies, expected prices, and net cash flows into the portfolio. As a result of these factors, portfolio returns are time-varying mixtures of distributions which are unlikely to be well approximated by conventional methods. 相似文献