Expectations, the business cycle and the Mexican peso crisis

The 1994–95 ‘peso’ crisis did not displaycharacteristics which allow it to be easily captured by traditionalcrisis models. Models based on Minsky's financial fragilityhypothesis offer more persuasive accounts but have been supportedby relatively little direct empirical evidence. This paper providessuch evidence, with particular attention being paid to the roleof domestic financial liberalisation in the process. Minsky'shypotheses about the evolution of expectations over the businesscycle are tracked using business survey data. In addition, crisisindicators are constructed, reflecting the changing vulnerabilityof the economy to shocks. The findings support a Minskyian interpretationof the crisis.     

Takeover activity in Australia: endogenous and exogenous influences

The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25-year period to re-examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity: (i) is endogenous; that is, determined by own activity; (ii) is jointly determined by macroeconomic and capital market variables; and (iii) has an exogenous spillover impact across the economy. We find that stock prices and takeover activity share a long-term common trend, the relative success of takeover bids is independent of sharemarket activity, and conclude that aggregate takeover activity is driven by fundamental economic factors rather than by speculative activity.     

Money and economic activity,inventories and business cycles

Incomplete information is a necessary condition for any real effects produced by monetary impulses. An alternative to the local-global inference problem is explored in this paper. Agents are confronted with permanent and transitory shocks. Even with full knowledge about the stochastic structure their best perception at any particular time will usually be erroneous. Prices for each period are set at the beginning of the period on the basis of market conditions. The realization of the shock process thus creates a short-run ‘disequilibrium’ absorbed by inventory adjustments. This adjustment translates perceived transitory monetary shocks into serially correlated output movements. The analysis proceeds within the context of rational expectations It offers a generalization of equilibrium analysis in two respects. Prices are always in equilibrium relative to perceived conditions, but they do not reflect all ongoing shocks. Quantity adjustments reflect the perceived transitory shocks. The framework used involves moreover a stock-flow interaction operated by inventory adjustments. The stock-flow interaction imposes at any time a future expected adjustment path (for price-level and quantities) to the system's unique stock equilibrium. A major implication of the analysis resolves a puzzle experienced in a recent paper by Robert Hall. It reconciles intertemporal substitution with lagged effects of monetary impulses. It also reconciles small and inconclusive cyclic movements in real wages with the occurrence of production function and large variations in unemployment. Lastly, the nature of the inference problem determined by the pattern of incomplete information produces serially correlated movements conditioned on large permanent shocks.     

CAPITAL BUDGETING,INTERTEMPORAL PROGRAMMING MODELS,WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO AGRICULTURE

Investment decision processes typically involve the selection of projects, the timing of their initiation and the determination of the amount to be invested in each time period. A linear programming model considered appropriate for solving such models is described, in which the multi-dimensional criterion function is expressed as a linear combination of the appropriately-weighted objectives. An empirical application is then discussed, the objectives of the firm being the maximization of tax-free cash and assets on hand at the end of the planning period. Finally, the appropriate length of the planning horizon, and some approaches to capital budgeting under non-certainty, are discussed.     

Agricultural development in Southern Africa: Theory,lessons and the food crisis in Africa

In this paper a household economics theory of farm‐household production in the Southern African context is presented which (a) places a new interpretation on the causes of low productivity per person and unit of land in the African farming sector, (b) demonstrates that even where improved food crop technology is widely adopted it may have a very limited impact on marketed production, and (c) contributes to an understanding of why Africa's food production per person continues to fall despite per capita aid inflows which have exceeded those for any other continent over the last decade.     

THE INFLATION ADJUSTMENT OF CORPORATE ACCOUNTS: THE CASE OF MONETARY ITEMS

This paper investigates the sensitivity of the computed loss from holding monetary items to alternative numerical estimating techniques. Using data from 38 companies for the fiscal year 1980-81, we find that estimation of the loss from holding monetary items is robust with respect to the calculating technique utilized, provided the monetary base is broadly defined. The implications of this for “market model” type studies of the impact of inflation adjustments are discussed.     

AN EVALUATION OF A NEW ZEALAND MARKETING BOARD'S SUPPLY DIVERSION STRATEGIES

It appears that the agricultural economics literature lacks much evidence upon which we can judge the performance of statutory boards as marketing institutions. This paper reports the achievements of the New Zealand Apple and Pear Marketing Board in two areas of supply diversion—the allocation of fruit between fresh and process markets, and the allocation of fresh fruit sales over time. Results indicate that the Board has achieved considerable gains for producers in the first of these areas, while in the second its behaviour has favoured consumers.     

Restructuring for the 21st century: The end of ideology or rediscovering corporatism?

Commission of the European Communities, Directorate-General for Regional Policy, 1991: Europe 2000. Outlook for the Development of the Community's Territory. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, no price stated.

Kennedy, R. 1991: London. World City Moving into the 21st Century. London: Her Majesty's Stationery Office, £24.95 cloth.

Sheffield Economic Regeneration Committee, undated: Sheffield 2000. Phase One. Sheffield: Sheffield Economic Regeneration Committee, £7.50 in Sheffield, £25.00 outside Sheffield.

Stanworth, J. and Stanworth, C. 1991: Work 2000. The Future for Industry, Employment and Society. London: Paul Chapman Publishing, £15.95 cloth.     

The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets

This paper implements strategies that use macroeconomic variables to select European equity mutual funds, including Pan-European, country, and sector funds. We find that several macro-variables are useful in locating funds with future outperformance and that country-specific mutual funds provide the best opportunities for fund rotation strategies using macroeconomic information. Specifically, our baseline long-only strategies that exploit time-varying predictability provide four-factor alphas of 12–13% per year over the 1993–2008 period. Our study provides new evidence on the skills of local versus Pan-European asset managers, as well as how macroeconomic information can be used to locate and time these local fund manager skills.     

Computer Technology Adoption by Agricultural Producers in Southern Alberta

A survey of farmers in Southern Alberta was developed to determine the importance of computer decision-making tools in the region. The survey provided approximately 300 useable responses. The results indicated that 78% of Southern Alberta farmers owned computers and 50% owned Pentium or Pentium II computers. The largest farm related uses for these computers were: 1) maintaining general farm account records, 2) tax preparation, 3) word processing, and 4) maintaining inventory records. Sixtyfour percent of respondents use computers for record-keeping and 58% use them for accounting. About 40% of respondents use the Internet to obtain price and weather information. Only 15% have ever used decision-making models .