Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860�C1988

In this paper, we examine the large shocks due to major economic or financial events that affected U.S. macroeconomic time series on the period 1860–1988, using outlier methodology. We show that most of these shocks have a temporary effect, showing that the U.S. macroeconomic time series experienced only few large permanent shifts in the long term. Most of these large shocks can be explained by major recessions and World War II as well as by monetary policy for the interest rate data. We also find that some economic events seem to have the same effect (immediate, transitory or permanent) on a number of macroeconomic series. Finally, we show that most macroeconomic time series do not seem inconsistent with a stochastic trend once we adjusted the data for these shocks.     

Uncertainty and the macroeconomy: evidence from an uncertainty composite indicator

This article proposes a uncertainty composite indicator (UCI) based on three distinct sources of uncertainty (namely financial, political, and macroeconomic) for the US economy on the period 1985–2015. For that, we use a dynamic factor model, summarizing efficiently six individual uncertainty proxies, namely two macroeconomic and financial uncertainty factors based on the unpredictability, a measure of (micro)economic uncertainty, the implied volatility index, the corporate bond spreads, and an index of economic policy uncertainty. We then compare the effects of uncertainty on economic activity when the UCI is used instead of individual uncertainty proxies in structural VAR models. The interest of our UCI is to synthesize theses effects within one measure of uncertainty. Overall, the UCI was able to account for the most important dynamics of uncertainty which play an important role in business cycles.     

Crypto-assets portfolio optimization under the omega measure

Abstract

Crypto-currencies, or crypto-assets, represent a new class of investment assets. The traditional portfolio analysis approach of Markowitz is not appropriate for use with portfolios containing crypto-assets, as the model requires that the investor have a quadratic utility function or that the returns be normally distributed, which isn’t the case for crypto-assets. We develop a portfolio optimization model based on the Omega measure which is more comprehensive than the Markowitz model, and apply this to four crypto-asset investment portfolios by means of a numerical application. The results indicate that these portfolios should favor traditional market assets over crypto-assets. In the case of portfolios formed only by crypto-assets, there is no clear preference in favor of any crypto-asset in particular.     

Can good news be bad? The role of brand communication strategy and brand commitment in the announcement of product improvements

Although product improvements are usually good news, this research reveals that brands can be affected negatively depending on the level of brand commitment and on the type of communication strategy chosen by the brand. More specifically, this research examines how high-commitment consumers react to product improvements, and how these consumers respond to a communication strategy in which a brand admits that the new product version improves upon a previous inferior product (herein referred to as ‘honesty strategy’). Results of an online study reveal that product improvement is perceived more negatively by high- (compared to low-) commitment consumers, and that these consumers react more negatively and attribute manipulative intent when the brand uses an honesty strategy. This research shows that brands need to be cautious in communicating product improvements to consumers, particularly to its most committed ones. An admission that a product improvement significantly enhances the quality of a previous (inferior) product may backfire with committed consumers.     

Ethnic diversity and educational success: Evidence from France

This paper explores the relationship between ethnic diversity and adolescent educational outcomes at a very fine level. The French Labor Force Survey is used to obtain information on neighborhood composition and we use repetition of the school year at age 15 to 16 as an indicator of school underperformance. We use the method of Bayer, Ross, and Topa (2008) to take account of endogeneity. Although high ethnic diversity of the residential area and educational success seem to be negatively related at first sight, we show that the causal relationship between the two disappears when all confounding factors are properly controlled for. This result is robust for alternative definitions of origin.     

Psychological profile of subjects facilitating responsible preventive behavior

In the tradition of the psychological investigation there are some antecedents dedicated to the evaluation of the dissonance between attitude and observable behaviour. Some works in ecology showed that only some subjects are able to maintain a favourable attitude towards the waste recycling and also to do it in an efficient form. The majority thinks that it is a good action but they do not exert it. From this concept, in this work we establish the idea of preventionist responsible behaviour to define those subjects that such cognitive dissonance does not exist and that they maintain favourable attitudes towards the prevention and at the same time they exert the behaviours derived from that attitude. We compare a group of preventionist workers with a control group with nonpreventionist behaviour in a series of psychological variables in order to establish a differential profile (case control study). Data were collected between October 2006 and January 2007. The results showed a clear profile in variables like control, neuroticism, monitoring rules, etc.     

The random walk hypothesis for Chinese stock markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests

This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets for both A and B shares, using daily data over the period 1992–2007. The hypothesis is tested with new multiple variance ratio tests – Whang-Kim subsampling and Kim's wild bootstrap tests – as well as the conventional multiple Chow-Denning test. We find that Class B shares for Chinese stock exchanges do not follow the random walk hypothesis, and therefore are significantly inefficient. The Class A shares seem more efficient.     

Analysis of the implications of collaborative work in terms of performance and satisfaction among students registered in the Data Analysis in Psychology course

Currently the introduction of the European Higher Education Area suggests modifications in teaching and learning strategies adopted by the universities. To achieve this aim, the collaborative work among students has been encouraged. During the past years various studies have demonstrated that the incorporation of collaborative work renders high levels of satisfaction among students, though the results obtained in relation to performance are more modest. The objective of the present research is to determine whether the incorporation of collaborative work, in an intensive way, in the Data Analysis in Psychology course for the academic year 2006–2007 produces an increment in the performance of the students, as well as keeps the high levels of student satisfaction with this course. A sample of 350 registered students in this 2006–2007 academic course was used. The outcome of our study shows a significant increase of students presenting the evaluations and passing the course when compared to those of the previous academic year, as well as the high levels of satisfaction, on the part of the students, with the organization of this course.     

Understanding Consumers’ Ethical Justifications: A Scale for Appraising Consumers’ Reasons for Not Behaving Ethically

This article reports the results of research aimed at developing and validating a multi-item scale to measure consumers’ agreement with three main justifications for not engaging in socially responsible consumption (SRC) behaviours, namely the ‘economic rationalist argument’ founded on the idea that the costs of SRC are greater than its benefits, the ‘economic development reality argument’ based on the idea that ethical and moral aspirations are less important than the economic development of countries, and the ‘government dependency argument’ grounded in the premise that government inaction demonstrates the legal character and the banality of unethical consumption behaviours. The scale items were generated on the basis of a multi-country qualitative study of consumers (Eckhardt et al., 2006, ‘Why Don’t Consumers Behave Ethically’. DVD Document, AGSM). The content validity of the scale was assessed in the first study. The second study was a survey of 157 Canadian adult consumers in which the three-dimensional scale and other scales measuring relevant concepts were administered. The survey results showed that the 28-item resulting scale is reliable and generally behaves as one would theoretically expect. Implications for consumption ethics researchers and policy makers are proposed.     

You ruined our love story,but I just cannot hate you—A moderation–mediation analysis of past experienced brand love and brand hate

The development of the consumer–brand relationship is crucial for brands as it reflects how well a consumer is emotionally connected with the brand. However, due to unacceptable behaviour, brands have become susceptible to negative consumer–brand relationships. Given the recent importance of the negative consumer–brand relationship and its consequences, little is known about the role of previously experienced brand love. Studies support the link between strongly remembered events and experiences, customer knowledge, brand association, and consumer congruence with brands in creating long-lasting influence and deep emotion towards the brand. The study examines moderation–mediation analysis of past experienced brand love and brand hate. This research, anchored in consumer brand relationship literature, builds on an analysis of data from 207 respondents. We conducted a research survey in a South-Western European country and performed the SPSS Hayes Process macro 58 to analyse the moderating role of past experienced brand love alongside the mediating role of brand hate to test our hypotheses. The moderation results show that past experienced brand love significantly moderated the link between brand hate causes (corporate wrongdoings) and brand hate. However, there is no significant moderation influence of past experienced brand love on the consequences of brand hate causes. The study also demonstrates that brand hate mediates the link between corporate wrongdoings and violations of expectations with negative word of mouth, consumer complaints, and patronage reduction/cessation. The current study is unique in that it highlights new avenues in existing research by extending the domain in consumer–brand relationships. The findings of the study have theoretical and empirical implications for brand managers.