Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?

Studies in the economics of crime literature have reached mixed conclusions on the deterrence hypothesis. One explanation that has been offered for the failure to find evidence of a deterrent effect in the long run is the natural rate of crime. This article applies univariate unit root tests to crime series for the United Kingdom and United States and panel unit roots to crime rates for a panel of G7 countries to examine whether there is a natural rate of crime. Our main finding is that when we allow for two structural breaks in the univariate unit root test and a structural break in the panel data unit root test, there is strong evidence of a natural rate of crime. The policy implications of our findings is that governments should focus on altering the economic and social structural profile that determines crime in the long run rather than increasing expenditure on law enforcement that will at best reduce crime rates in the short run.     

The relationship between product and international diversification: the effects of short‐run constraints and endogeneity

We examine the relationship between growth along the product and international dimension in the short run. We argue that while the presence of fungible intangible resources and economies of scope may create opportunities for a firm to expand along both dimensions, the effect of short‐ run constraints may lead to a trade‐off and a negative association between the two dimensions. In addition, we suggest that rather than being independent, decisions concerning the extent of growth along the two dimensions are likely to be made simultaneously and endogenously by firms after taking into consideration the availability of various resources. We test these propositions by observing a sample of 1,299 firms over the period of 1993–1997. Our results show strong evidence of endogeneity and a negative association between growth along the two dimensions. These findings provide important support for theories of firm growth that have long held that firms are limited in the number of opportunities they can exploit in the short run by various constraints. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A semiquantitative risk assessment methodology to prioritize recommendations

Process safety engineers promote loss prevention by providing recommendations when deficiencies are observed. Deficiencies are undesirable conditions that aggravate the likelihood and/or the severity of loss events. Any improvement needs resources, and since the resources are always limited, process safety engineers have to establish priorities for loss prevention recommendations. One appropriate way to prioritize the recommendations is to evaluate and compare the cost of risk reduction associated with the improvements. While qualitative risk analysis techniques may not be able to provide the necessary resolution to differentiate the improvements, quantitative techniques need much expertise, time, and funds. A feasible approach would be a semiquantitative methodology with the simplifications necessary to make it easy to use, but at the same time providing the needed resolution for prioritization. This article presents such a methodology to prioritize loss prevention recommendations. The methodology uses the concept of engineered systems, which are simply hardware (equipment or facility), procedures, or a combination put in place to serve specific functional intents. The basis of the methodology is founded in the premise that deficiencies are always associated with engineered systems and deficiencies increase their failure likelihoods. A few examples are provided with the details of the methodology and the incorporated simplifications. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog, 2009     

Effects of link placements in email newsletters on their click-through rate

Firms adopting email marketing strategy often complain about low click-through rate (CTR). Scarcity of attention in this digital economy requires including psychological aspects of consumer behavior into the design considerations of digital contents. In this study, we propose differential effects of link placements in email newsletter on their CTR. We explain the observed effects of link placements on CTR drawing concepts from psychology and visual heuristics. The empirical analysis confirms that when it comes to clicking on the links of a newsletter, the click-through follows a U-pattern, i.e. as users traverse the links placed on a U-path their responsiveness decreases gradually. Thus, links placed in the left region of an email newsletter have higher impact than those placed in the right region with links in the top-left region having highest impact. Insights gained from this study can be used in the design consideration of email newsletters.     

Oil price–inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime

In the wake of the inflation-targeting strategy in Romania, we estimate the impact of international oil prices upon the consumer price index (CPI) and core inflation. The inflation target was systematically missed by the monetary authorities who explain this failure by exogenous factors. Using a frequency domain framework, we show that the oil price–inflation pass-through can be observed only for those components of inflation which include volatile prices and only in the medium run. Our results put forward that the constant missing of the target cannot be explained by the oil price–inflation pass-through and the credibility of the strategy is put into question.     

Impact of oil booms and busts on human capital investment in the USA

This paper uses Census IPUMS data from 1970 to 2000 and ACS data from 2010 to estimate the impact of oil booms and busts on wages and human capital formation in the USA. The paper finds that the oil boom between 1970 and 1980 was associated with a slower growth in the relative demand for skills in the oil and gas sector and regions where the sector had a large presence. The oil boom led to a sharp rise in real wages and a modest decline in college wage premium in oil-rich regions in the USA. Using a synthetic cohort approach, the paper finds that relative to cohorts who went to high school in the pre-oil boom period, the cohort reaching high school age during the oil boom was about 1–2% points less likely to have a college degree by 2000 and 2010.     

Error-correction based panel estimates of the demand for money of selected Asian countries with the extreme bounds analysis

This paper uses the extreme bounds analysis (EBA) of Leamer (1983, 1985) to analyze the robust determinants of the demand for money in a panel of 17 Asian countries for the period 1970 to 2009. These robust determinants are found to be unit root variables. Therefore, cointegration between these variables is tested with a recent time series panel method developed by Westerlund (2007). This method uses the error-correction formulation and has more power against the null of no cointegration. The results show that there is a well-defined long-run demand for money. Using the lagged error correction term from the estimated cointegrating equation, the short-run dynamic relationships are estimated. This paper, thus, suggests some useful guidelines to estimate other relationships with panel data.     

The energy consumption-real GDP nexus revisited: Empirical evidence from 93 countries

In this paper, we analyse the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP for 93 countries. We find mixed results on the impact of energy consumption on real GDP, with greater evidence at the country level supporting energy consumption having a negative causal effect on real GDP. For the G6 panel of countries, we find significant evidence that energy consumption negatively Granger causes real GDP. This means that for countries where energy consumption has a negative long-run causal effect on real GDP, energy conversation policies should not retard economic growth. We identify these countries and regional panels. We argue that these countries/regions should play a greater role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions.     

A stochastic frontier approach to modelling financial constraints in firms: An application to India

We propose the use of stochastic frontier approach to modelling financial constraints of firms. The main advantage of the stochastic frontier approach over the stylised approaches that use pooled OLS or fixed effects panel regression models is that we can not only decide whether or not the average firm is financially constrained, but also estimate a measure of the degree of the constraint for each firm and for each time period, and also the marginal impact of firm characteristics on this measure. We then apply the stochastic frontier approach to a panel of Indian manufacturing firms, for the 1997–2006 period. In our application, we highlight and discuss the aforementioned advantages, while also demonstrating that the stochastic frontier approach generates regression estimates that are consistent with the stylised intuition found in the literature on financial constraint and the wider literature on the Indian credit/capital market.     

Unemployment persistence in EU countries: new evidence using bounded unit root tests

We apply a series of bounded unit root tests to revisit the unemployment persistence in eight European Union (EU) countries. We find strong evidence in favour of the hysteresis hypothesis in all the cases. This result can be explained by a reduced labour mobility, a decreasing wage inflation and a high uncertainty regarding the future level of unemployment in the EU countries.