How long to eat a cake of unknown size? Optimal time horizon under uncertainty

This paper is concerned with the determination of the optimal time horizon for the cake–eating problem under uncertainty. It is shown that if the uncertain exhaustible resource stock is a discrete random variable admitting at most a finite number of values, the optimal planning horizon is infinite (finite) according as the marginal utility of extraction–cum–consumption is infinite (a finite positive value) as the latter approaches zero, thereby extending the scope of the similar result under perfect certainty. Other results show that uncertainty will generally lengthen the planning horizon, implying a more conservative extraction policy under uncertainty, and that the extraction policy aimed at extracting an amount equal to the expected value of the uncertain resource stock takes longer than the expected value of the optimal planning horizon. JEL Classification: D81 and Q31 Combien de temps pour manger un gâteau de taille inconnue? L’horizon temporel optimal en régime d’incertitude. Ce mémoire s’attaque à la détermination de l’horizon temporel optimal dans le cas du problème du gâteau–à–manger en régime d’incertitude. On montre que si le stock incertain de la ressource épuisable est une variable aléatoire discontinue qui ne peut prendre qu’un nombre fini de valeurs, l’horizon temporel est infini (fini) selon que l’utilité marginale de l’extraction–cum–consommation est infinie (prend une value finie positive) quand celle–ci approche zéro, et ce faisant élargit la portée d’un résultat similaire obtenu en régime de certitude parfaite. D’autres résultats montrent que l’incertitude accroît généralement l’horizon temporel, ce qui suggère qu’une politique d’extraction plus conservatrice va prévaloir en régime d’incertitude, et que la politique d’extraction visant à extraire une quantitéégale à la valeur anticipée d’un stock de ressource incertain prend plus de temps que la valeur anticipée de l’horizon temporel optimal.     

The relationship between mixed strategies and strategic groups

This paper identifies a theoretical basis for the existence of strategic groups. We represent the competitive marketplace by means of a game-theoretic model and motivate the existence of markets wherein the only Nash solution may be in mixed strategies. Given deterministic behavior on the part of the firms, we interpret this solution in terms of a strategic groups equilibrium. The major implication of this analysis is that strategic groups can exist even if there is no inherent asymmetry (in terms of skills) between firms.     

A portfolio based theory of excessive foreign borrowing and capital control in a small open economy

We develop a simple model of portfolio choice in a mean variance framework to address the issue of international borrowing and financial crisis. Instead of adverse selection or moral hazard of lending and borrowing activities we emphasise the role of exchange rate movement. Syndicated borrowing by way of internalising the aggregate effect tends to restrict excessive borrowing from external source. However, this may undermine the welfare consequences by further aggravating the extent of risk undertaken in the process. There is a built-in externality in the model that leads to over exposure to foreign currency debt and readily calls for intervention by the government. Government intervention by way of a tax on foreign borrowing may help restrain the amount of external debt and implement the first best.     

Growth Options, Beta, and the Cost of Capital

We show how to decompose a firm's beta into its beta of assets-in-place and its beta of growth opportunities. Our empirical results demonstrate that the beta of growth opportunities is greater than the beta of assets-in-place for virtually all industries over all periods of time dating back to 1977. The difference has important implications for determining the cost of capital. For example, when choosing comparables to determine a project beta one should match the growth opportunities of the project with those of the comparable firm. Assuming a 6% market equity risk premium, accounting for growth opportunities alters the project cost of capital by as much as 2% to 3%.     

How Effective Are Second-Generation Road Funds? A Preliminary Appraisal

Underfunded, inefficient road maintenance is a perennial problemin many developing economies. To address it, some countrieshave created "second-generation" road funds that are financedby fuel levies and managed by boards representing the interestsof road users. Macroeconomists often oppose such funds, arguingthat this earmarking of revenue reduces fiscal flexibility.Some argue that such road funds should be seen as an interimstep toward fully commercialized road maintenance or good publicsector governance—and hence subject to sunset provisions.Decisions on whether to retain (or create) such funds shouldthen be based on their effects on resource allocation, operationalefficiency, and rent seeking. Using evidence on new road fundsin Africa, this article finds that they have not underminedfiscal flexibility. Moreover, they have improved the administrationof road funding (in terms of execution capability) and its outputs(in terms of road conditions). So, although criteria for assessingroad funds remain relevant, the funds should not automaticallybe considered temporary mechanisms. But when establishing newfunds, government's continued role in approving spending onroad maintenance should be explicitly recognized.      

Index of Authors Volume 7, 2003

Authors Index

Index of Authors Volume 7, 2003     

Gender,differential mortality and development: the experience of Kerala

This study examines aspects of sex differentials in mortality in India. "The general question of sex bias and excess female mortality is first discussed.... Subsequently the reasons for the regional contrast in sex ratios are explored.... We then focus on the interesting exception to the Indian trend and attempt an explanation for the unusual sexual profile that Kerala displays.... The paper ends...with an attempt to draw some tentative conclusions from the Kerala experience with an eye towards more general issues concerning women and the development process."     

Does the Diversification–Firm Performance Relationship Change Over Time? A Meta‐Analytical Review

We study the relationship between diversification and firm performance in the context of the decline in levels of diversification over time. We argue that the pressure to reduce diversification may have more strongly affected those firms whose diversification strategies were most detrimental to firm performance. We employ meta‐analytical regression (MARA) in order to test our hypotheses, using a total of 267 primary studies containing 387 effect sizes based on 150,000 firm‐level observations from over 60 years of research on the diversification–firm performance relationship. The findings suggest that levels of unrelated diversification have decreased, whereas levels of related diversification have increased since the mid‐1990s, following an initial decrease in the 1970s and 1980s. Furthermore, we find that the relationship between unrelated diversification and firm performance has improved significantly over time, whereas the relationship between related diversification and performance has remained relatively stable.     

What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation

Using a two-step system GMM approach on a unique bank-level dataset for the period 1998/99–2013/14, this paper tries to explore the key determinants of credit risk in the Indian banking industry. The main premise of this paper is that, along with regulatory and institutional factors, both macroeconomic and bank-specific variables influence the formation of credit risk in a banking system, and their influences vary across ownership groups. The empirical findings suggest that lower profitability, more diversification in the banking business, the large size of banks and a higher concentration of banks in lending increase the probability of defaults in India. We find a significant degree of persistence in credit risk, and the observed persistence is higher in the gross non-performing loans (NPLs) specification relative to what has been observed in the net NPLs specification. In the case of public sector banks, NPLs are more sensitive to internal bank-specific factors, while for private and foreign banks, macroeconomic and industry-related factors play a significant role in determining credit risk. Our results are robust for different panel data estimation models and sub-samples of ownership groups. The findings of this paper provide important insights into the formation of default risk in the banking system of an emerging market economy.     

Distress Anomaly and Shareholder Risk: International Evidence

Financially distressed stocks in the United States earn puzzlingly low returns giving rise to the distress risk anomaly. We provide evidence that the anomaly exists in developed countries, but not in emerging ones. Using cross‐country analyses, we explore several potential drivers of returns to distressed stocks. The distress anomaly is stronger in countries with stronger takeover legislation, lower barriers to arbitrage, and higher information transparency. In contrast, shareholder bargaining power and expected stock return skewness in a country do not affect the anomaly. These findings suggest that various aspects of shareholders’ risk play an important role in shaping distressed stocks returns.