A neglected contribution to monetary theory in the eighteenth century: Anders Wappengren on paper money,floating exchange rates,and purchasing power parity

Abstract

Between 1789 and 1803 the National Debt Office issued unbacked interest bearing notes whereas the Bank of Sweden issued silver backed notes. The massive note issuance by the National Debt Office led to different exchange rates and two units of account. The situation gave rise to an early paper standard theory formulated by Anders Wappengren, a well-read merchant who was strongly influenced by Adam Smith and the French physiocrats. Wappengren had a firm understanding of monetary systems and the adjustment mechanism under floating exchange rates, including such concepts as purchasing power parity and price stickiness.     

What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies

We explore the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a FAVAR model that identifies shocks from different regions of the world, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian countries) is more than twice as important as demand from developed countries in accounting for the fluctuations in the real oil price and in oil production. Furthermore, geographical regions respond differently to adverse oil market shocks that drive up oil prices, with Europe and North America being more negatively affected than countries in Asia and South America. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How beliefs influence behaviour: Confucianism and innovation in China

Previous studies have analysed how religious beliefs may affect economic activity. We extend this literature by examining how Confucianism is linked to innovation activity at the firm level in China. We analyse the relationship between Confucianism and several proxies for input and outputs of innovation activities. Our results show that Confucianism is significantly related to lower levels of innovation activity regardless of which measure for firm-level innovation we use. We also find that the nature of ultimate ownership influences this relationship, with innovation among state-controlled firms being significantly more affected by Confucianism. This study thus adds to the understanding of how traditional belief systems influence behaviour among economic actors.     

Workforce Composition and Innovation: How Diversity in Employees’ Ethnic and Educational Backgrounds Facilitates Firm‐Level Innovativeness

This article studies how workforce composition is related to a firm's success in introducing radical innovations. Previous studies have argued that teams composed of individuals with diverse backgrounds are able to perform more information processing and make deeper use of the information, which is important to accomplish complex tasks. We suggest that this argument can be extended to the level of the aggregate workforce of high‐technology firms. In particular, we argue that ethnic and higher education diversity within the workforce is associated with superior performance in radical innovation. Using a sample of 3,888 Swedish firms, this article demonstrates that having greater workforce diversity in terms of both ethnic background and educational disciplinary background is positively correlated to the share of a firm's turnover generated by radical innovation. Having more external collaborations does, however, seem to reduce the importance of educational background diversity. The impact of ethnic diversity is not affected by external collaboration. These findings hold after using alternative measures of dependent and independent variables, alternative sample sizes, and alternative estimation techniques. The research findings presented in this article would seem to have immediate and important practical implications. They would suggest that companies may pursue recruitment policies inspired by greater ethnic and disciplinary diversity as a way to boost the innovativeness of the organization. From a managerial perspective, it may be concluded that workforce disciplinary diversity could be potentially replaced by more external links, while ethnic diversity could not.     

Asymmetric Monotone Comparative Statics for the Industry Compositions

Within a standard model of international trade with heterogenous firms and two asymmetric countries, we derive sufficient conditions for monotone comparative statics (MCS) for the industry composition. This model outcome is defined as first‐order stochastic dominance shifts in the equilibrium distributions of all activities across active firms. MCS for the industry composition occurs in a country that experiences a decline in its costs of serving the foreign market and meanwhile experiences an increase in its level of competition. In the other country, the industry‐level implications are exactly opposite. These clear industry‐level results hold while firms respond asymmetrically to the trade shock.     

How important is family background for labor-economic outcomes?

This paper uses Swedish register data to examine four classical outcomes in empirical labor economics: IQ, noncognitive skills, years of schooling and long-run earnings. We estimate sibling correlations – and the variance components that define the sibling correlation – in these outcomes. We also estimate correlations for MZ-twins, who share all genes. We also extend the variance-component decomposition by accounting for birth order. We find that conventional intergenerational approaches severely underestimate the role of family background, and that future research should follow a more multidimensional approach to the study of family background.     

Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?*

We develop a system that provides model‐based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out‐of‐sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then used to derive quasi real time weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that a combination forecast improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, a combination forecast outperforms Norges Bank's own point forecast for inflation. The beneficial results are obtained using a trimmed weighted average. Some degree of trimming is required for the combination forecasts to outperform the judgmental forecasts from the policymaker.     

Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach*

Empirical monetary policy research has increased in the last decade, possibly because deregulation and explicit monetary targets have made monetary policy issues more interesting. In particular, within the inflation targeting framework it has been argued that inflation forecasts can be used as optimal intermediate targets for monetary policy, and the development of empirical models that have good forecasting properties is therefore important. This paper shows that a VAR model with long‐run restrictions, justified by economic theory, is useful for both forecasting inflation and for analysing other issues that are central to the conduct of monetary policy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.