Risk premia: Exact solutions vs. log-linear approximations

We derive exact expressions for the risk premia for general distributions in a Lucas economy and show that the errors when using log-linear approximations can be economically significant when the shocks are nonnormal. Assuming growth rates are Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) and fitting the distribution to the data used in Mehra and Prescott (1985), the coefficient of relative risk aversion required to match the equity premium is more than halved compared to the finding in their article. We also consider a standard long-run risk model and, by comparing our exact solutions to the log-linear approximations, we show that the approximation errors are substantial, especially for high levels of risk aversion.     

An analysis of dynamic risk in the Greater China equity markets

This study looks at the time-varying nature of systematic risk in the Greater China equity markets. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets both have a low average systematic risk when measured against the world market. The short outbursts in systematic risk for these two markets seem to be directly related to policy shifts. The Hong Kong and Taiwan markets are more integrated with world markets and they show signs of large variations in systematic risk over time. Furthermore, conditional betas in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are stationary, while the Hong Kong and Taiwan betas are integrated of order one. In addition, long memory tests show that all four markets exhibit a long-run dependence in their conditional betas. While the two mainland China market betas are covariance stationary, the Hong Kong and Taiwan betas are not.     

The negative news threshold—An explanation for negative skewness in stock returns

Abstract

A vast literature documents negative skewness in stock index return distributions on several markets. In this paper the issue of negative skewness is approached from a different angle to previous studies by combining the Trueman's 1997 model of management disclosure practices with symmetric market responses in order to explain negative skewness in stock returns. Empirical tests reveal that returns for days when non-scheduled news items are disclosed are the source of negative skewness in stock returns, as predicted. These findings suggest that negative skewness in stock returns is induced by asymmetries in the news disclosure policies of firm management. Furthermore, it is found that the returns are negatively skewed only for non-scheduled firm-specific news disclosures for firms where the management is compensated with stock options.     

东欧金融危机的回顾与分析

【彼德森国际经济研究所2009年6月】在这次大萧条以来最严重的全球金融危机中,中东欧受到的打击超过了任何其他地区。预计2009年该地区GDP将下降4％左右,拉脱维亚和乌克兰两国GDP都可能出现两位数的负增长。     

Portfolio returns and manager activity: How to decompose tracking error into security selection and market timing

We develop a new method for detecting portfolio manager activity. Our method relies exclusively on portfolio returns and, consequently, avoids the pitfalls associated with disclosed portfolio holdings. We investigate the link between activity and performance of actively managed U.S. equity funds from 2000 to 2007 and document robust evidence that future performance is positively related to past stock picking and negatively associated with past market timing. Finally, we find that portfolio manager activity is highly persistent over time, which supports the conclusion that stock picking increases performance while market timing decreases performance.     

Implementing social media marketing strategically: an empirical assessment

The purpose of this study is to examine how firms implement social media systematically to drive strategic marketing actions. To this end, the study conceptualises social media implementation as a multidimensional, organisational construct composed of social media strategy, active presence, customer engagement initiatives and social media analytics. Using primary data, the study operationalises the social media implementation construct and tests its effect on firm performance isolated into social media performance and marketing performance. The results indicate that all except the active presence dimension of social media implementation are positively related to social media performance. The results further indicate that social media performance is positively related to marketing performance. The study contributes to the literature by offering a novel conceptualisation and empirical validation of the social media implementation construct.     

Underpaid and Corrupt Executives in China’s State Sector

This study examines the role of executive compensation in public governance. We collect data on corruption cases that involve top-level executives in Chinese listed state-controlled firms. We find a significant positive relationship between underpayment of executives and the likelihood of an investigation into corrupt behavior. We also show that corruption is positively associated with firm performance and that the relationship between underpayment of executives and corruption is influenced by firm performance, suggesting that top managers are more likely to engage in illicit behavior if they are compensated poorly while the firms under their control perform well. Finally, we find that pay-performance sensitivity decreases when top executives are involved in corruption investigations, indicating a lack of pecuniary incentives. Our empirical findings point toward an important relationship between executive compensation and corrupt behavior, thus providing valuable input to the understanding of executive pay and its effects in China’s state sector.     

A MULTI-OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF INPUT–OUTPUT MATRIX UPDATING METHODS

This paper shows that important insights can be lost when assessing the relative performance of balancing methods solely based on individual optima. This is demonstrated through a multi-objective assessment. A trade-off curve between RAS and sign-preserving absolute differences (SPAD) is obtained based on the 60×60 Norwegian 2001 input–output table. The trade-off curve takes on a form that is close to a step function. This demonstrates that the solution surface around the RAS and SPAD optimums are very flat. Solutions can be identified that improve on the other objective or measure with little or marginal cost to the original objective function. Motivation for the assessment is provided, the technique applied is presented and the implications of the findings are discussed in an input–output and industrial ecology context.     

Technological Diffusion and Growth among Nations: the Two Stages of Catching Up

The international diffusion of technology is fundamental to an understanding of the nature of technical progress and why growth differs among advanced industrialised countries. In the present technological gap model, innovation is supposed to take place in the leading country. In countries following behind, knowledge growth depends on the spill-over of technology from the leading country. The diffusion mechanism is first studied in a growth accounting framework. In a second step, a complete growth model is constructed in which there are two stages of catching up (falling behind). One involves closing (widening) the technological gap, the other one involves convergence (divergence) in the capital-labour ratio.     

Australia's consumption‐based greenhouse gas emissions

We use data from the World Input‐Output Database in a multiregional input–output model to analyse Australian consumption‐based greenhouse gas emissions for the years 1995 to 2009. We find that the emission content of Australian macroeconomic activity has changed over the 15‐year period. Consumption‐based emissions have been growing faster than production‐based emissions since 2001. We show that emissions embodied in Australian imports are increasingly becoming a significant source of emissions. We investigate emissions in Australian imports and find that increased trade with China contributed substantially to the increase in Australia's consumption emissions. China was the largest exporter of emissions to Australia and accounted for almost half of emissions embodied in Australian imports since 2002. The growth of trade with China coincides with the increase in imported emissions as well as the increase in aggregate consumption emissions. Our results suggest that tracking consumption emissions together with production emissions provides a more complete picture of Australian emissions.