Nonlinear Correlograms and Partial Autocorrelograms*

This paper proposes neural network‐based measures of predictability in conditional mean, and then uses them to construct nonlinear analogues to autocorrelograms and partial autocorrelograms. In contrast to other measures of nonlinear dependence that rely on nonparametric estimation of densities or multivariate integration, our autocorrelograms are simple to calculate and appear to work well in relatively small samples.     

LIFE EXPECTANCY AND ECONOMIC WELFARE: THE EXAMPLE OF AFRICA IN THE 1990s

A formulation for incorporating Life expectancy information into empirical economic welfare calculations is presented. In an application analyzing the economic progress of the African continent during the 1990s due consideration of life expectancy factors substantially modifies the conclusions drawn from standard welfare calculations.     

An analysis of the intra-firm sales activities of Japanese multinational enterprises in the United States: 1977 to 1989

This paper examines the activities of the largest Japanese multinational enterprises (MNEs) operating in the United States by looking at data on exports, imports, and intra-firm trade between the Japanese subsidiaries in the United States and their parent and other foreign groups. It also examines how much of the domestic sales in the United States are accounted for by local production of the Japanese subsidiaries. Sales data provide an indication of the advantages of being multinational, which are mirrored in the growth of the post-investment sales of overseas units (both manufacturing and non-manufacturing). Data on the flows and stocks of foreign direct investment (FDI) represent the initial decisions to undertake FDI and largely ignore the learning effects of having overseas production.The authors are from the City University of Hong Kong and NORTACK Software Limited. We would like to thank the Editor, Dr Leung Hing-Man, the anonymous referees, and Don Daly, Wendy Dobson, Hiroaki Izumi, Terutomo Ozawa, Alan M Rugman and Rob Tran for their helpful comments. All errors and omissions, however, remain the responsibility of the authors.     

Robert Browne and Full Employment

Among the valuable contributions Robert Browne made in his career was the role he played in shaping the “Equal Opportunity and Full Employment Bill of 1974” that was introduced by Congressman Augustus Hawkins of California. Browne defined full employment as “a condition in which all persons willing and able to work, no matter what their race, gender, or national origin would be guaranteed a job”. In his view, if the private sector was unable to produce full employment, the government should act as the employer of last resort. Language in support of that view was included in the Hawkins bill. Robert Browne believed only a national policy to achieve that goal would eliminate racial disparities in employment and unemployment—a long term reality in the American labor market. The 1974 Hawkins bill was met with only tepid Congressional support, little notice from civil rights leaders, and no response from the business community. Little was done to advance full employment legislation until Senator Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota embraced the cause in 1975. Negotiations with Congressman Hawkins led to the development of the “Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1975,” a legislative measure to replace the Employment Act of 1946. The new bill was commonly known as the Humphrey–Hawkins Full Employment Bill. Robert Browne offered far less support for the new bill than for the original full employment bill introduced by Mr. Hawkins. The Humphrey Hawkins Bill failed to provide explicitly a job guarantee for all workers, and included an inflation target to make price stability co-equal with full employment as a national policy objective. The Humphrey–Hawkins Bill was enacted into law in 1978, and remains the nation’s policy dictum on full employment to this day.     

ESTIMATING RISK EFFECTS IN CHINESE FOODGRAIN PRODUCTION

Given the importance of Chinese foodgrain production both in China and in the world food market, it is useful to explore the sources of the increased variabilities of China's foodgrain production (Stone and Zhong, 1989). A production function with composite error structure and a heteroscedastic disturbance is applied to cross-section and time-series data from China. The function provides information on the contributions of inputs to production variance and therefore on risk. It is found that production variance is positively related to sown area, chemical fertiliser and irrigation, and is negatively related to electricity use. However, most of the estimates determining the marginal risk effects lack statistical significance. This suggests that the measured controllable factors do not contribute very significantly to Chinese foodgrain production variability.