ECONOMETRICS MEETS SENTIMENT: AN OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATIONS

The advent of massive amounts of textual, audio, and visual data has spurred the development of econometric methodology to transform qualitative sentiment data into quantitative sentiment variables, and to use those variables in an econometric analysis of the relationships between sentiment and other variables. We survey this emerging research field and refer to it as sentometrics, which is a portmanteau of sentiment and econometrics. We provide a synthesis of the relevant methodological approaches, illustrate with empirical results, and discuss useful software.     

Risk Judgments in Climbers: The Role of Difficulty,Meteorological Conditions,Confidence and Appropriate Tools

Risk perception among climbers is a factor that can contribute to injury prevention. The purpose of this study was to analyze how expert climbers make judgments about potential risks to their safety. Specifically, we studied how climbers combine the available information on environmental conditions and personal resources in order to arrive at risk judgments. Sixteen distinct scenarios were presented to 134 climbers, and their risk perception related to each situation was recorded. Findings revealed that all variables were highly relevant for determining risk perception. When all variables were present at the same time, confidence was found to minimize the perception of risks caused by environmental conditions, such as difficult climbing. We conclude that an understanding of how expert climbers combine relevant information in order to judge risk can offer ways for them to take more effective preventive measures against injuries, specifically to identify hazards and their combined effects.     

Sharing Strategic Decisions: CEO Humility,TMT Decentralization,and Ethical Culture

Journal of Business Ethics - Humility is increasingly recognized as an essential attribute for individuals at top management levels to build successful organizations. However, research on CEO...     

Co-Movements between Latin American and US Stock Markets: Convergence After the Financial Crisis?

Since 1980, the world has been undergoing a continuous process of integration in different aspects, and financial markets are no exception to this development. Even though global integration is gradual, specific events can accelerate this trend. This article shows that after the financial crisis of 2008, which was especially acute in the United States, the Latin American stock markets have exhibited a higher level of convergence, as measured by the correlation between the annual returns of their stock market indices. Additionally, we find convergence in the coefficient of co-movements between Latin American and the US stock markets using dynamic linear models at the regional level. In particular, we uncover consistent movements between the daily annual returns of the Latin American indices and the S&P index after the financial crisis. This kind of convergence might signal an acceleration of the virtual integration process in Latin America stock markets located in different countries, which has seen slow development since its beginning a few years ago.

RESUMEN

Principalmente a partir de los años 1980, el mundo está enfrentando un continuo proceso de integración en diversos aspectos y los mercados financieros no son una excepción en cuanto a este desarrollo. A pesar de ser una integración gradual, encontramos eventos específicos que pueden ayudar a acelerar esta tendencia. Este trabajo muestra que después de la crisis de 2008, que ocurrió principalmente en Estados Unidos, los mercados de valores latinoamericanos presentaron un nivel más alto de convergencia, medido especialmente por la correlación entre los retornos anuales de los índices de sus bolsas de valores. Además, mediante el uso de modelos lineares dinámicos al nivel regional, también encontramos convergencia en el coeficiente de los comovimientos entre los mercados de valores de América Latina y EE.UU. Este tipo de convergencia puede ser una señal para que aceleremos el proceso de integración virtual en los mercados de valores de América Latina, ubicados en varios países, que ha tenido una evolución lenta desde su inicio, algunos años atrás.

RESUMO

Notadamente a partir dos anos 1980, o mundo começou a presenciar um processo contínuo de integração em diversos aspectos e o mercado financeiro não é uma exceção neste avanço. Apesar de a integração global ser gradual, podemos encontrar eventos específicos, capazes de ajudar a acelerar esta tendência. O presente trabalho mostra que após a crise financeira de 2008, ocorrida principalmente nos Estados Unidos, os mercados acionários da América Latina apresentaram um índice mais elevado de convergência, medido pela correlação entre os retornos anuais dos índices de suas bolsas de valores. Também encontramos convergência no coeficiente dos comovimentos entre os mercados acionários da América Latina e EUA, com o uso de modelos lineares dinâmicos no âmbito regional. Constatamos, especificamente, movimentos consistentes nos retornos anuais diários dos índices latino-americanos e do índice S&P, após a crise financeira. Esse tipo de convergência pode ser um sinal da aceleração do processo de integração virtual nos mercados acionários da América Latina, situados em diversos países, que têm apresentado desenvolvimento lento desde seu início, alguns anos atrás.     

Progressive taxation in a dynastic model of human capital

We develop a quantitative theory of economic inequality to investigate the effects of replacing the current U.S. progressive income tax system with a proportional one. The cross-sectional implications of the theory are used to discipline the assessment of the effects of tax policy and circumvent the lack of conclusive micro-evidence on the parameterization of the human capital production technology. We find that the elimination of progressive taxation increases steady state level of output by 12.6%, capital by 21.8%, and consumption by 13.2%. Moreover, it increases economic inequality and its persistence across generations.     

Entrenchment and Severance Pay in Optimal Governance Structures

This paper explores how motivating an incumbent CEO to undertake actions that improve the effectiveness of his management interacts with the firm's policy on CEO replacement. Such policy depends on the presence and the size of severance pay in the CEO's compensation package and on the CEO's influence on the board of directors regarding his own replacement (i.e., entrenchment). We explain when and why the combination of some degree of entrenchment and a sizeable severance package is desirable. The analysis offers predictions about the correlation between entrenchment, severance pay, and incentive compensation.     

TRADE POLICY AND PROTECTIONISM IN ARGENTINA

Protectionism can take many different forms. In some cases, strong export performance can mislead observers assessing the trade policy of a country. Such is the case with regard to Argentina, where the strong showing in exports is not the result of a strategy of export‐led economic growth, but rather reflects a complex strategy of government intervention and isolation from international markets in general.     

The Information Content of Dividend Surprises: Evidence from Germany

This paper reconsiders the issue of share price reactions to dividend announcements. We use the difference between the actual dividend and the analyst consensus forecast as obtained from I/B/E/S as a proxy for the surprise in the dividend announcement. Using data from Germany, we find significant share price reactions after dividend announcements. We use panel methods to analyze the determinants of the share price reactions and find evidence in favour of the cash flow signaling hypothesis and dividend clientele effects. We further find that the price reaction to dividend surprises is related to the ownership structure of the firm. The results do not support the free cash flow hypothesis. An additional result of our analysis is that dividend changes are not an appropriate measure to capture the information content of dividend announcements.     

Settling the debate on multinational capital structure using the CEPR measure

Portfolio theory suggests that because of diversification benefits, multinational corporations (MNCs) should have lower risk and therefore could have more debt. Empirical studies, however, have repeatedly shown that MNCs from the US face higher risks and have lower debt levels. Burgman (1996) suggests that agency costs as well as political and exchange rate risks are the explanation. Kwok and Reeb (2000) explain this puzzle, presenting an upstream-downstream hypothesis suggesting that MNCs from emerging markets reduce their risk by going international (they go to safer markets), while firms from developed countries increase their risk by going abroad (they go to riskier markets). By introducing a new measure of Country Export Partner Risk (CEPR), we show that the weighted average risk level of a country's export trading partners is negatively related to the leverage of its multinationals, thus confirming the upstream-downstream hypothesis. Furthermore, once controlling for CEPR, we find that the multinationality of the firm is positively related to leverage, thus lending support to the traditional diversification argument. Our findings, therefore, help settle the debate between these two opposing streams of multinational capital structure literature.