A fuzzy model to assess the resilience of Protection and Civil Defense Organizations

Resilience is the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under expected and unexpected conditions. Protection and Civil Defense Organizations (PCDOs), communities and cities deal with disaster management involving routine, non-routine and even unpredictable/unforeseen situations with varying degrees of complexity. It is important that such organizations continually assess their resilience, enable them to learn on their weaknesses and real capacities to cope with emergency situations. This research aimed the development of an Organization Resilience Indicator System (ORIS) based on a fuzzy model to enable PCDOs self-assesses their resilience. Based on a literature review on organizational and community’s resilience, a system of resilience indicators was defined. This system was validated by experts using fuzzy set theory to aggregate opinions in the development of a resilience ideal pattern. Then, the resilience of four PCDO organizations was self-evaluated. The results were accordingly to maturity level of the organizations evaluated, indicating that the ORIS is valuable to measure PCDOs resilience.     

The effectiveness of advertising alcohol products in sports sponsorship

Studies have shown that exposure to sponsorship can influence behavior. However, evidence of the effectiveness of sports advertising and its influence on alcohol consumption is inconclusive. The goal of this research is to examine whether sponsorship by alcohol products receives the same attention as sponsorship by nonalcohol products depending on their congruence and the way they influence the intention to consume. Using sports posters, an experiment was performed to measure attention through eye-tracking. The results show that attention paid to alcohol brands is no greater than the attention paid to incongruent brands and is no different from the attention paid to congruent brands, regardless of gender and sporting discipline. Attention paid to sponsors has no influence on the intention to consume. These results show the need for further research on the effectiveness of sponsorship and its relationship with alcohol consumption.     

BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE QUANTITATIVE METHODS APPLIED TO THE MEASUREMENT OF INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS

Literature on methods for analysing interindustry interdependence and geographical concentration of firms began to multiply since the 1990s. The aim of this paper was to systematize the literature on methods and measures applied to the analysis of industrial clusters, as well as to identify trends in this knowledge field. The method used was bibliometrics, which consisted of a frequency evaluation of the publications and the relationship network between them. It was verified an exponential increase in the number of papers that composed this area, based mainly on the theories of New Economic Geography. Recently, the literature has focused on the geographic location in relation to interindustry linkages, and the frontier of knowledge has shifted from traditional methods of regional science to areas such as spatial statistics, econophysics and artificial intelligence. There are still relevant questions being explored, as Modifiable Area Unit Problem (aggregation bias), nevertheless, spatial anisotropy (directional bias) is still neglected and indicates a new research path.     

Conditional risk-neutral density from option prices by local polynomial kernel smoothing with no-arbitrage constraints

Review of Derivatives Research - A new approach is considered to estimate risk-neutral densities (RND) within a kernel regression framework, through local cubic polynomial estimation using intraday...     

The decision to first enter the public bond market: The role of firm reputation,funding choices,and bank relationships

This paper uses survival analysis to investigate the timing of a firm’s decision to issue for the first time in the public bond market. We find that firms that are more creditworthy and have higher demand for external funds issue their first public bond earlier. We also find that issuing private bonds or taking out syndicated loans is associated with a faster entry to the public bond market. According to our results, the relationships that firms develop with investment banks in connection with their private bond issues and syndicated loans further speed up their entry to the public bond market. Finally, we find that a firm’s reputation has a “U-shaped” effect on the timing of a firm’s bond IPO. Consistent with Diamond’s reputational theory, firms that establish a track record of high creditworthiness as well as those that establish a track record of low creditworthiness enter the public bond market earlier than firms with intermediate reputation.     

Setting a fox to keep the geese — Does the comply-or-explain principle work?

The German Corporate Governance Code works according to the comply-or-explain principle. One of its recommendations was to publish the remuneration of the members of the executive board on an individual basis. We examine the characteristics of the firms that complied with the code requirement. Our results indicate that firms that paid higher average remunerations to their management board members were less likely to comply, whereas firms with higher Tobin's Q were more likely to comply. We also document a non-monotonic relation between ownership concentration and the probability of compliance that is consistent with standard corporate governance arguments.Due to the fact that the number of firms complying with the disclosure requirement was low, a new law was passed that mandates disclosure unless the shareholders' meeting (with a 75% majority) decides otherwise. We find that this “loophole” in the new legislation is exploited by smaller firms, firms with comparatively high levels of executive remuneration, and firms with concentrated ownership. We discuss the implications of our results for the effectiveness of the comply-or-explain regulation.     

Disentangling the role of variance and covariance information in portfolio selection problems

The covariation among financial asset returns is often a key ingredient used in the construction of optimal portfolios. Estimating covariances from data, however, is challenging due to the potential influence of estimation error, specially in high-dimensional problems, which can impact negatively the performance of the resulting portfolios. We address this question by putting forward a simple approach to disentangle the role of variance and covariance information in the case of mean-variance efficient portfolios. Specifically, mean-variance portfolios can be represented as a two-fund rule: one fund is a fully invested portfolio that depends on diagonal covariance elements, whereas the other is a long-short, self financed portfolio associated with the presence of non-zero off-diagonal covariance elements. We characterize the contribution of each of these two components to the overall performance in terms of out-of-sample returns, risk, risk-adjusted returns and turnover. Finally, we provide an empirical illustration of the proposed portfolio decomposition using both simulated and real market data.     

The US financial crisis,market volatility,credit risk and stock returns in the Americas

We employ the multivariate DCC-GARCH model to identify contagion from the USA to the largest developed and emerging markets in the Americas during the US financial crisis. We analyze the dynamic conditional correlations between stock market returns, changes in the general economy’s credit risk represented by the TED spread, and changes in the US market volatility represented by the CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX). Our sample includes daily closing prices from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2015, for the USA and stock markets in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. We first identify that increases in VIX have a negative intertemporal and contemporaneous relationship with most of the stock returns, and these relationships increase significantly during the US financial crisis. We then find evidence of significant increases in contemporaneous conditional correlations between changes in the TED spread and stock returns. Increases in conditional correlations during the financial crisis are associated with financial contagion from the USA to the Americas. Our findings have policy implications and are of interest to practitioners since they illustrate that during periods of financial distress, US stock volatility and weakening credit market conditions could promote financial contagion to the Americas.

     

The origins of modern accounting in Brazil: Influences leading to the adoption of IFRS

Despite the increasing importance of Brazil, there has been little documentation of how accounting developed and about the significant formative influences involved. This paper explores the significant influences on Brazilian accounting and the path to the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Several important influences are emphasized: the equity theory of the Italian school of accounting in the early 20th century; the birth of the Brazilian accounting profession in 1931 and the certified accountants association in 1946; the impact of US trade and American accounting in the 1950s; and the high rates of inflation that occurred from the beginning of the 1960s. Modern Brazilian accounting had its beginning in the 1970s with the development of the stock market, the reforms of the financial system, and the decrease of tax influences on accounting. The globalization process and the need for Brazilian accounting to converge with international accounting led to the decision to adopt IFRS in 2007.