A note on the socio-economic composition of the inner city

This paper considers the socio-economic structure of the inner area of Newcastle upon Tyne, in an attempt to contrast notions of a cycle of deprivation and the “housing trap” thesis. The use of discriminant analysis suggests that there exists no concentration of low-income groups within the inner city. The relationship between multiple deprivation and resource provision is examined with respect to this finding.     

From growth to basic needs

Despite growing hostility and basic misconceptions, the concept of "basic human needs" has superseded former approaches, including concentration on growth, creation of employment, and redistribution of benefits to the poor, as the approach by which mass deprivation may be reduced. The new approach can be defined briefly as one which is designed to improve, first, the income earning opportunities for the poor; second, the public services that reach the poor; third, the flow of goods and services to meet the needs of all members of the household; and fourth, participation of the poor in the ways in which their needs are met. All four pillars must be built on a sustainable basis. In addition, basic needs must be met in a shorter period and at a lower level of earned income per capita than has generally been true in the past, or than would have been achieved via the income expansion associated with growth alone. The basic needs approach is concerned with particular goods and services directed at particular, identified human beings. Another advantage of the basic needs approach is that it is a more positive concept than the double negatives of eliminating or reducing unemployment, alleviating poverty, or reducing inequality. The basic needs approach spells out in considerable detail human needs in terms of health, food, education, water, shelter, transport, simple household goods, as well as non-material needs like participation, cultural identity, and a sense of purpose in life and work, which interact with the material needs.     

External adjustment

Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even, for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets—the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position—the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations. JEL no. F21, F32, F36, F41     

Nominal shocks and the current account: A structural VAR analysis of 14 OECD countries

This paper provides some empirical evidence on one of the most controversial theoretical implications of the new open economy literature, which refers to the role of the current account in the international monetary transmission mechanism. In order to throw some light on this issue, two structural VAR models are estimated separately for 14 industrialized countries. The main empirical results highlight the importance of the role of nominal disturbances for current account fluctuations. Additionally, it is found that expansionary nominal shocks generate temporary current account surpluses, whose size is positively correlated with the openness of the individual countries. JEL no. C32, E40, F41, F42     

ITC voting behavior on sunset reviews

This paper is the first attempt to analyze ITC Commissioner voting behavior on sunset reviews of antidumping cases. Sunset determinations entail greater complexity than initial antidumping investigations because ITC commissioners must account for the impact of dumping protection as well as competitive forces on industry conditions. Empirical findings indicate that ITC voting is based on both sunset regulation and nonstatutory factors. Results reveal apparent biases against Chinese competitors and poorer nations generally, and favorable treatment toward U.S. steel producers and high-wage industries. There is also evidence of preferential treatment of industries located in states of Senate oversight committee members. JEL no. F13     

Productivity and the Euro-Dollar exchange rate

This article analyses the impact of productivity developments in the United States and the euro area on the euro-dollar exchange rate. The article presents a new measure of relative average labour, productivity (ALP) which does not suffer from the biases implicit in readily available relative ALP data. Importantly, the patterns of these series differ widely. Employing the Johansen cointegration framework, four models are estimated using four different productivity proxies. Our results indicate that the extent to which productivity can explain the euro depreciation varies with the productivity proxy used: readily available measures explain most, our new, preferred measure least. In all models, however, productivity can explain only a fraction of the actual euro depreciation experienced in 1999–2000. JEL no. F31, C32, O47 The views expressed in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank or its staff.