Employee Share Ownership: Safeguarding Investments in Human Capital

Valuable investments in human capital, it has been argued, may be at risk in much the same way as shareholder equity capital. In this paper, we develop and test the hypothesis that employee share ownership (ESO) may be used to encourage and safeguard investments in human capital. Using the Workplace Employee Relations Survey 1998, we examine the empirical link between the likelihood of ESO and the presence of valuable human capital. Adjusted for possible structural influences, empirical evidence suggests considerable support for our hypothesis.     

Management earnings forecasts and other forward-looking statements

We identify forward-looking statements (FLS) in firms’ disclosures to distinguish between “forecast-like” (quantitative statements about earnings) and “other”, or non-forecast-like, FLS.  We show that, like earnings forecasts, other FLS generate significant investor and analyst responses. Unlike earnings forecasts, other FLS are issued more frequently when uncertainty is higher. We then show that earnings-related FLS are more sensitive to uncertainty than quantitative statements, suggesting that managers are more likely to alter the content than the form of FLS when uncertainty is higher.  Our study indicates that incorporating other FLS into empirical measures provides a more comprehensive proxy for firms’ voluntary disclosures.     

The Many Dimensions of Child Poverty: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study*

In this paper, we use a multidimensional framework to characterise child poverty in the UK. We examine the interdependencies amongst the different dimensions of multidimensional poverty and the relationship between multidimensional poverty and income poverty. We also explore the links between multidimensional poverty, income poverty and children's cognitive and non‐cognitive development. Our findings suggest that multidimensional poverty identifies many but not all of the same children classified using standard income poverty measures. Approximately 20 per cent of children are classified as poor on one measure but not the other. Children in workless households and ethnic minority children face the highest odds of growing up in both multidimensional poverty and income poverty. We find similar levels of persistence in multidimensional poverty and income poverty, with 17 per cent (18 per cent) of children experiencing persistent multidimensional (income) poverty and 10 per cent of children experiencing both persistent multidimensional poverty and persistent income poverty. Multidimensional poverty (both episodic and persistent) also has a detrimental impact on children's development over and above the negative impact of income poverty.     

Owning and testing smoke alarms: findings from a qualitative study

Reducing injury and death in house fires is an important public health intervention activity with the presence of an operating smoke alarm widely considered an important way of reducing harm from fire. Yet despite a number of initiatives and fire-safety campaigns, a number of households at greater risk of domestic fire fail to have a functioning alarm. This paper provides empirical insight into everyday experiences of owning, maintaining and testing smoke alarms among a purposive sample of individuals identified as being less likely to own a functioning smoke alarm. Analysis from focus group data identifies a number of reasons why individuals may not own or test an alarm, and provides new insight into how fire risk is understood in the context of a range of competing, and potentially more prominent, individual and household risks. We suggest that while initiatives that aim to reduce fire injury and death should be continued, their success, and indeed future research on fire risk, should pay attention to the mundane and everyday contexts within which individuals currently rarely reflect on their risk of experiencing a domestic fire.     

Decomposing the market,industry, and firm components of profitability: implications for forecasts of profitability

Academics and practitioners frequently highlight that overall market and industry performance is an important aspect of a firm’s profitability. However, few studies allow for the decomposition of a firm’s profitability into market, industry, and idiosyncratic components, and those that do often assume that the market and industry components are cross-sectional constants. In this study, we allow for variation in firm-specific sensitivities to market, industry, and idiosyncratic economic shocks, and then assess whether and when this decomposition results in improved forecasts of profitability. For the overall sample, we find significant improvements in terms of the magnitude of forecast errors and the frequency with which forecasts based on the decomposed values are superior versus forecasts using only total profitability. Across the sample as a whole, decomposing profitability in the forecasting process results in more accurate forecasts greater than two-thirds of the time (increasing to almost 80% within certain subsamples). Our results provide strong support for the role that firm-specific measures of market and industry profitability play in predicting a firm’s future performance, as well as highlighting settings where the decomposition provides the greatest benefit in terms of predicting future changes in profitability.     

Learning minimum variance discrete hedging directly from the market

Option hedging is a critical risk management problem in finance. In the Black–Scholes model, it has been recognized that computing a hedging position from the sensitivity of the calibrated model option value function is inadequate in minimizing variance of the option hedge risk, as it fails to capture the model parameter dependence on the underlying price (see e.g. Coleman et al., J. Risk, 2001, 5(6), 63–89; Hull and White, J. Bank. Finance, 2017, 82, 180–190). In this paper, we demonstrate that this issue can exist generally when determining hedging position from the sensitivity of the option function, either calibrated from a parametric model from current option prices or estimated nonparametricaly from historical option prices. Consequently, the sensitivity of the estimated model option function typically does not minimize variance of the hedge risk, even instantaneously. We propose a data-driven approach to directly learn a hedging function from the market data by minimizing variance of the local hedge risk. Using the S&P 500 index daily option data for more than a decade ending in August 2015, we show that the proposed method outperforms the parametric minimum variance hedging method proposed in Hull and White [J. Bank. Finance, 2017, 82, 180–190], as well as minimum variance hedging corrective techniques based on stochastic volatility or local volatility models. Furthermore, we show that the proposed approach achieves significant gain over the implied BS delta hedging for weekly and monthly hedging.     

Death of linkages in host countries? A firm‐level study on the channels of productivity spillovers in the Malaysian manufacturing sector

Productivity spillovers from multinational corporations (MNCs) to local firms have been an area of keen research interest in developing economics. Claims of positive spillovers in the form of technology transfers have been questionable, in part because of the many ambiguous conclusions obtained. The paper argues that the lack of focus in the mechanisms underpinning spillovers may be one of the reasons for the ambiguity. Using local input–output linkages as the mechanism for technology transfer, this study examines the presence and the enabling conditions for spillovers. Accounting for the variations in firms' characteristics, the findings show that skills‐oriented MNCs participating in international production networks transmit horizontal spillovers to local establishments. Vertical spillovers from MNCs are mostly relevant only to lower‐skilled establishments. For skilled and export‐oriented local establishments, technologies learned from producing for international production networks are more significant than forming linkages with MNCs in the domestic market.     

Conservation finance and sustainable tourism: the acceptability of conservation fees to support the Tambopata National Reserve,Peru

Protected areas are key to the conservation of global biodiversity and ecosystem services; however, their success is contingent upon adequate funding. One possibility to increase funding for park management is to “sell” a wider suite of ecosystem services “produced” by protected areas, such as carbon sequestration. We conducted 420 tourist surveys to analyze willingness to pay (WTP) for ecosystem service benefits via a conservation fee in the Tambopata National Reserve in Peru. We also interviewed eight tour operators about their perceptions of the proposed fee. The average stated WTP was 15 USD. Sixty-six percent of tourists stated they would pay 10 USD or more, which, if actually paid, would have resulted in 318,000 USD for park management in 2015. Most respondents stated they would pay an additional fee if it supported biodiversity conservation or local ecosystem services, such as water, but less than 10% of tourists were motivated by carbon sequestration as a reason to pay the fee. Most tour operators supported the additional fee. Our findings suggest that tourists are willing to pay higher fees to support conservation but that interest in paying for additional ecosystem services from parks may not extend to global and intangible benefits such as carbon sequestration.     

A SURVEY OF THE ECONOMICS OF PATENT SYSTEMS AND PROCEDURES

The last several decades have seen increases in patenting activity worldwide, as well as growing issues related to patent quality. In response to these quality issues a recent patent literature has emerged, that investigates the behavior and incentives of patent examiners, applicants, and third parties. In this paper, we provide an overview of patent procedures, patent systems and a survey of the new economic literature on patent systems. Both theoretical and empirical papers are considered. Policy implications coming from this literature are presented.     

Healthcare costs of stroke and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants

Objective: To assess long-term healthcare costs related to ischemic stroke and systemic embolism (stroke/SE) and major bleeding (MB) events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs).

Materials and methods: Optum’s Clinformatics Data Mart database from 1/2009–12/2016 was analyzed. Adult patients with ≥1 stroke/SE hospitalization (index date) were matched 1:1 to patients without stroke/SE (random index date), based on propensity scores. Patients with an MB event were matched to patients without MB. All patients had an NOAC dispensing overlapping index date, ≥12?months of eligibility pre-index date, and ≥1 NVAF diagnosis. The observation period spanned from the index date until the earliest date of death, switch to warfarin, end of insurance coverage, or end of data availability. Mean costs were evaluated: (1) per-patient-per-year (PPPY) and (2) at 1, 2, 3, and 4?years using Lin's method.

Results: The cost differences were, respectively, $48,807 and $28,298 PPPY for NOAC users with stroke/SE (n?=?1,340) and those with MB (n?=?3,774) events compared to controls. Cost differences of patients with vs without stroke/SE were $49,876, $51,627, $57,822, and $60,691 at 1, 2, 3, and 4?years post-index, respectively (p?p?Limitations: Limitations include unobserved confounders, coding and/or billing inaccuracies, limited sample sizes over longer follow-up, and the under-reporting of mortality for deaths occurring after 2011.

Conclusions: The incremental healthcare costs incurred by patients with vs without stroke/SE was nearly twice as high as those of patients with vs without MB. Moreover, each additional year up to 4?years after the first event was associated with an incremental cost for patients with a stroke/SE or MB event compared to those without an event.