Contents of PMM,Volume 29 (2009)

This article appraises the recent UK quantitative easing (QE) monetary experiment. From March 2009 to February 2010, the Bank of England spent £200 billion on gilts and corporate bonds. This experiment represents, as a proportion of GDP, the most ambitious monetary policy ‘mission’ in history. Using several indicators to examine the impact of QE, our analysis leads to a conclusion which, metaphorically, is akin to that ascribed to the 1970 Apollo 13 Moon mission: a ‘successful failure’.     

AIDing contraception: HIV and recent trends in abortion

Using a difference-in-differences estimation framework and state-level data, we investigate the potential role of HIV/AIDS in contributing to declining abortion utilization in the United States. Our results suggest that the perceived risk of HIV contraction negatively affected unwanted pregnancies. Specifically, a 10% increase in HIV incidence is associated with 0.34–1.1% fewer abortions per live births, an effect that can account for at least one-tenth of the sharp decline in abortions observed from the early 1980s to mid-1990s.     

Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option

Hedge funds often impose lockups and notice periods to limit the ability of investors to withdraw capital. We model the investor's decision to withdraw capital as a real option and treat lockups and notice periods as exercise restrictions. Our methodology incorporates time-varying probabilities of hedge fund failure and optimal early exercise. We estimate a two-year lockup with a three-month notice period costs approximately 1% of the initial investment for an investor with constant relative risk aversion utility and risk aversion of three. The cost of illiquidity can easily exceed 10% if the hedge fund manager can arbitrarily suspend withdrawals.     

Tracking a changing copula

A copula models the relationships between variables independently of their marginal distributions. When the variables are time series, the copula may change over time. Recursive procedures based on indicator variables are proposed for tracking these changes over time. Estimation of the unknown parameters is by maximum likelihood. When the marginal distributions change, pre-filtering is necessary before constructing the indicator variables on which the recursions are based. This entails estimating time-varying quantiles and a simple method based on time-varying histograms is proposed. The techniques are applied to the Hong Kong and Korean stock market indices. Some interesting and unexpected movements are detected, particularly after the attack on the Hong Kong dollar in 1997.     

Combining choice modelling and multi-criteria analysis for technology diffusion: An application to the uptake of electric vehicles

Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector by adopting technologies such as solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles (EVs) have major implications for the capacity of electricity distribution networks, particularly at local areas with high uptake. Consumer decisions to purchase these technologies are also influenced by several complex criteria such as costs/benefits, performance, appeal/status, risk, psychographics, and demographics. This complexity motivated the development of an innovative diffusion model, incorporating features of multi-criteria analysis and choice modelling, to estimate the adoption of these technology options spatially across the landscape of heterogeneous consumers. We test the model to forecast market share of EVs through to 2030, using the vehicle stock across all 1.5 million households in Victoria, Australia. Seven financial and non-financial criteria were included and calibrated via focus groups and a large‐scale survey. Annual change of criteria values and their elasticity to adoption were incorporated. Geographical differences in uptake of EVs were primarily due to driving distance, employment status and household income, with urban areas having about three times the proportional uptake. By testing the model for a range of incentives, we demonstrate its capability to inform and evaluate policy options.     

Monotonicity in asset returns: New tests with applications to the term structure,the CAPM,and portfolio sorts

Many theories in finance imply monotonic patterns in expected returns and other financial variables. The liquidity preference hypothesis predicts higher expected returns for bonds with longer times to maturity; the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) implies higher expected returns for stocks with higher betas; and standard asset pricing models imply that the pricing kernel is declining in market returns. The full set of implications of monotonicity is generally not exploited in empirical work, however. This paper proposes new and simple ways to test for monotonicity in financial variables and compares the proposed tests with extant alternatives such as t-tests, Bonferroni bounds, and multivariate inequality tests through empirical applications and simulations.     

Variable reduction,sample selection bias and bank retail credit scoring

This paper investigates the effect of including the customer loan approval process to the estimation of loan performance and explores the influence of sample selection bias in predicting the probability of default. The bootstrap variable reduction technique is applied to reduce the variable dimension for a large data-set drawn from a major UK retail bank. The results show a statistically significant correlation between the loan approval and performance processes. We further demonstrate an economically significant improvement in forecasting performance when taking into account sample selection bias. We conclude that financial institutions can obtain benefits by correcting for sample selection bias in their credit scoring models.     

Rorty,Caputo and business ethics without metaphysics: ethical theories as normative narratives

Using the works of Richard Rorty and John Caputo, I want to suggest that we might be better off treating the traditional ethical theories of Kant, Mill, Aristotle and Hobbes as normative narratives rather than as justificatory schemes for moral decision making to be set up against one another. In a spirit akin to Husserl's ‘bracketing’ of metaphysics, when discussing ethical theories in business ethics, we can easily avoid metaphysics and use an approach that sees ethical theory as socially convincing normative narratives – narratives that unify us with others insofar as they describe our phenomenological experiences in a way with which many of us mutually resonate. I will do this by attempting to show how John Caputo's thinking in Against Ethics and Rorty's postmodern pragmatism might be appropriated to some extent by us in business ethics.     

The mediating effects of perception and emotion: Digital signage in mall atmospherics

Digital signage (DS), public screens showing video, is an important, little-researched topic. The “direct” route in the elaboration likelihood model suggests that DS influences cognition, which then influences emotions whereas the “peripheral” route is emotion→cognition. We predict that these operate in parallel and report a survey of mall consumers (n=315). DS has a significant, positive, total effect on approach behaviors, mediated by positive affect and (arguably) perception of mall environment. Results extend the limited capacity model of mediated message processing from television to DS, which predicts the effectiveness of vivid moving visual images as atmospheric stimuli.     

Music to Your Brain: Background Music Changes Are Processed First,Reducing Ad Message Recall

Background music captures attention, evokes images, and creates ambience, but may interfere with processing of advertised messages, reducing recall. Brains are hardwired to process unexpected background sound changes first, automatically preempting processing of brand message elements and reducing recall. The degree of this recall reduction depends on the structural characteristics of the music, as well as the advertised brand. Backgrounds with more frequent harmonic and textural changes create more frequent distraction, reducing message recall. Faster tempos increase the frequency of those distractions. However, faster tempos also enable streaming of like distractions, improving message recall. In Experiment 1, backgrounds, varying in harmonic, textural, and temporal characteristics, were compared across ads for six brands. Message recall was higher for ads with backgrounds with less‐frequent change. Message recall from ads for new, unfamiliar brands suffered more from background music interference than from ads for established brands. In Experiment 2, background change frequency was reduced in two ads, holding all else constant, which improved message recall.