WORLD OUTLOOK

After six years of steadily rising OECD output, fears of a significant rise in world inflation are now increasing. In the last year there has been a slight pick-up in inflation with producer prices up nearly d per cent. But prompt action by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the presidential election appears to have damped inflationary expectations in the US and has given Japan and Germany an opportunity to tighten monetary policy without causing major currency fluctuations. It is also apparent that the other possible source of world inflation, commodity prices, is not a problem. OPEC over-production has ensured that the oil price remains weak and other commodity prices appear to have stopped rising after a brief acceleration at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless the major imbalances in world trade are declining only slowly and without a change in fiscal policy in the major economies it is difficult to believe that minor changes in monetary policy will be sufficient if the process of adjustment begins to falter. Despite these risks, we take a sanguine view of world prospects. Tighter monetary policy should effect a slowdown in world growth next year (already indicated by recent developments, particularly in the US) and this should be sufficient to control inflation which we expect to peak at just under 5 per cent at the beginning of next year. From 1990 onwards we see steady growth accompanied by low inflation.     

Owning and testing smoke alarms: findings from a qualitative study

Reducing injury and death in house fires is an important public health intervention activity with the presence of an operating smoke alarm widely considered an important way of reducing harm from fire. Yet despite a number of initiatives and fire-safety campaigns, a number of households at greater risk of domestic fire fail to have a functioning alarm. This paper provides empirical insight into everyday experiences of owning, maintaining and testing smoke alarms among a purposive sample of individuals identified as being less likely to own a functioning smoke alarm. Analysis from focus group data identifies a number of reasons why individuals may not own or test an alarm, and provides new insight into how fire risk is understood in the context of a range of competing, and potentially more prominent, individual and household risks. We suggest that while initiatives that aim to reduce fire injury and death should be continued, their success, and indeed future research on fire risk, should pay attention to the mundane and everyday contexts within which individuals currently rarely reflect on their risk of experiencing a domestic fire.     

Job Satisfaction in Britain

Little recent empirical work in economics or industrial relations has examined job satisfaction, despite its demonstrated correlation with labour market behaviour such as quits, absenteeism and productivity. This paper uses information from a study of 5000 British employees to investigate the relationship between three measures of job satisfaction and a wide range of individual and job characteristics. Notably, men, workers in their thirties, the well-educated, those working longer hours and workers in larger establishments have lower levels of job satisfaction. The estimated job satisfaction equations are used to calculate a measure of the shadow wage and to provide some evidence that is consistent with the existence of non-compensating differentials in the industry and occupational wage structure.     

The Dynamic Relationship Between Investments in Brand Equity and Firm Profitability: Evidence Using Trademark Registrations

Abstract

Most marketing practitioners and scholars agree that marketing assets such as brand equity significantly contribute to a firm’s financial performance. In this paper, we model brand equity as an unobservable stock that results from up to 30 years of past brand-related investment flows. Using firm-specific trademarks as investment proxies, our results show a significant long-run impact on financial performance. The dynamic profile of brand-related investments has an inverted-U shape that reaches its peak after 11 years. On average, it takes four years before brand-related investments show a positive return, and investments older than 19 years show no significant impact. For the median trademarking firm, brand equity contributes €265,000 to annual profits.     

Economic Growth Evens Out Happiness: Evidence from Six Surveys

In spite of the great U‐turn that saw income inequality rise in Western countries in the 1980s, happiness inequality has fallen in countries that have experienced income growth (but not in those that did not). Modern growth has reduced the share of both the “very unhappy” and the “perfectly happy.” Lower happiness inequality is found both between and within countries, and between and within individuals. Our cross‐country regression results suggest that the extension of various public goods helps to explain this greater happiness homogeneity. This new stylized fact arguably comes as a bonus to the Easterlin paradox, offering a somewhat brighter perspective for developing countries.     

Identifying contracts,combinations and conspiracies in restraint of trade

Antitrust guidelines rely on structural screens to review horizontal merger proposals for possible anti-competitive effects. This paper extends this screening approach to forecast where industry cartels will form, and where cartel agreements are more likely to raise price. I test the screen's reliability for a unique data set of legal, privately enforced industry cartels that formed under the Webb-Pomerene Export Trade Act. Consistent with screening assumptions, I find that cartels formed more frequently in industries with significant potential market power, high barriers to entry, and conditions facilitating the enforcement of agreements. However, these characteristics generally perform less well at distinguishing when cartels are likely to raise price without generating offsetting cost-savings, suggesting that screening is reliable only as a preliminary check for possible anti-competitive behavior.     

Balancing growth across geographic diversification and product diversification: A contingency approach

We theorize that firms simultaneously seek to balance their growth across both the geographic and product diversification domains. To achieve this balance, businesses commonly adopt a strategy of expanding an under-diversified direction at the expense of an over-diversified one. Accordingly, we depict geographic diversification and product diversification as being an endogenous relationship, from which we hypothesize that firms that have under-diversified in a given direction and over-diversified in the other will expand the former at the expense of the latter. Meanwhile, firms that have under-diversified in both directions will expand both diversification paths, while firms that have over-diversified in both directions will contract in both diversification routes. We investigate these predicted relationships and show them empirically using a sample of leading Japanese multinationals in the 1990–2000 period.     

The Economic Deterioration of the Family: Historical Contingencies Preceding the Great Recession

The “Great Recession” in the United States exposed contradictions between the economic well‐being of families and capital that developed in the decades prior to this latest downturn. Using social structure of accumulation theory, a qualitative institutional analysis, and quantitative time‐series models, this article investigates historically contingent relations between the nature of public assistance, family economic deterioration, and capital accumulation. To sustain the circuit of capital, I argue that the family propped up economic growth first through public cash assistance and then through private expenditures, the latter of which lead to the economic deterioration of families dependent on unprecedented levels of debt.