Did Leaving the Gold Standard Tame the Business Cycle? Evidence from NBER Reference Dates and Real GNP

Cover and Pecorino (2005) claim that the March 1933 departure from the gold standard is the most probable break point ushering in an era of longer U.S. expansions, both absolutely and relative to subsequent recessions. Their analysis is based on cycle durations as defined by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reference dates. However, much of macroeconomic analysis is based on (i) growth cycles (i.e., periods when the economy's production is above or below trend) rather than absolute increases or decreases in economic activity; and (ii) aggregate time series' volatility as the prime indicator of macroeconomic stability. In light of this, we reevaluate the March 1933 break point. First, using HP‐filtered quarterly gross national product (GNP), our analysis of growth cycle durations still implies a break point near 1933. Second, we test for structural breaks in the volatility of GNP growth rates and deviations from trends. These tests suggest a structural break considerably later than 1933, perhaps as late as the 1950s.     

Town centre management in the UK: A review,synthesis and research agenda

Despite rapid growth in the number of town centre management schemes in the UK there have been few attempts to consider this topic from an academic perspective. This article develops a typology of town centre management schemes, based upon a comprehensive review of existing literature. The criteria of organizational structure and resource origin are identified as primary influences in the initiation and development of such schemes. The article concludes by outlining a research agenda which considers both local governance and spatial and temporal themes in the initiation and development of town centre management. The analysis of such factors is vital to a fuller understanding of this area.     

Refractory Materials: The Global Market,The Global Industry

World demand for refractory products—heat-resisting ceramic materials used in metal refining, glass making, and other high-temperature industrial applications—will be slowing down considerably from an annual rate of 10.8 percent during 2002–07 to 3.5 percent during 2007–12. Such slower growth reflects many factors, but is due primarily to: unsettled economic conditions; better efficiencies in steelmaking (which accounts for about half of all end uses of refractories); and the preference of end-users for maintenance rather than new facilities. The four key markets or end uses for refractory materials are: iron and steelmaking; other metal-making; nonmetallic materials such as glass; and an all-other category. In 2007, world refractory demand was 38.1 million metric tons valued at $22.9 billion; the corresponding figures for 2012 are projected at about 45.2 million metric tons valued at $28.5 billion. The Asia-Pacific region accounted for about 45 percent of total weight in 2007; its share by 2012 should rise to about 69 percent, with China becoming the dominant producer and consumer of refractory materials.     

Happiness,income and poverty

There is considerable evidence from a variety of sources to suggest that well-being is a function of relative income. These findings have been used to explain the Easterlin Paradox, whereby a rise in income for all does not lead to a rise in average happiness in a country (even though the cross section relationship between income and happiness is positive). This relativity of utility has led to calls for policy to focus away from GDP. I here first discuss some of the evidence that well-being is indeed relative in income, but then consider two relatively little-analysed issues to suggest that there may continue to be a role for GDP per capita in happiness-based policy: the inequality of subjective well-being, and the specific case of those in income poverty.     

Hard globalization

Many companies aspire to be players in the global marketplace, but the challenges to succeed are now greater than ever. Steve Tappin and Andrew Cave spoke with the CEOs of strongly globalized companies to learn their secrets.     

Indoor Climate Control: The Global Demand for Heating,Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning Equipment

World demand for heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment is expected to rise in absolute terms during the current five-year period, but the rate of growth is slowing. However, growth is still in excess of that recorded by both global building construction expenditures and world gross domestic product. In 2007, $63.1 billion was spent on HVAC. The Asia-Pacific region now accounts for about 45 percent of the total. The two major categories of HVAC are cooling equipment, which accounts for 71 percent of the total, while heating equipment is responsible for the remaining 29 percent. The commercial market dominates the residential market by a ratio of 65:35. There are hundreds of suppliers around the world, but the eight leading firms have about 50 percent of the market.     

Aggregate supply response in Tanzanian agriculture

Tanzania is among the many African countries that have engaged in agricultural liberalization since the mid-1980s. in the hope that reforms that introduce price incentives and efficient marketing will encourage producers to respond. This paper assesses that claim by examining the supply response of agricultural output in Tanzania. Our estimates suggest that aggregate agricultural supply response is quite high so that the potential for agricultural sector response to liberalization of agricultural prices and marketing may be quite significant. The long-run elasticity of aggregate food crop output to relative prices was almost unity. Short-run supply responses were estimated at about 0.35 for aggregate food crops and for all (food and export) crops. Liberalization of agricultural markets, where it increases the effective prices paid to farmers, can be effective in promoting production, although complementary interventions, to improve infrastructure, marketing, access to inputs and credit, improved production technology etc, are probably necessary.     

Uncovering Dimensionality in the Servicescape: Towards Legibility

The type and level of service offered in the service sector is relatively homogenous, and notoriously difficult to distinguish. Company servicescapes are important differentiators and indicators of quality vis-à-vis image and competence. The paper develops an exploratory and conceptual framework that delineates the dimensions of service environments, emphasising those factors that can be successfully manipulated by management. Fieldwork examined a dynamic service environment and analysis revealed that the legibility of the setting (e.g., clear signage and spatial appearance) influenced peoples' moods generally. Analysis suggested that general layouts and legible signage help to induce positive moods, and therefore positive images of the service providers.     

Tobacco Advertising and Children

This paper expresses the results of an investigation of the influence of tobacco advertising on children's smoking. The investigation examined the existing body of evidence and literature on the subject including data obtained from empirical research carried out by the Children's Research Unit in London. Despite the speculation regarding the possible role of advertising in juvenile smoking, no evidence was found to link juvenile smoking initiation with tobacco advertising. On the contrary, the evidence suggests that smoking initiation is more dependent on family smoking behaviour and peer pressures. These factors emerged consistently as the major influences in smoking initiation throughout the literature and the range of countries investigated regardless of the extent of tobacco advertising permitted in each country. Advertising is not as influential as is often supposed. Psychological filter systems are employed by the consumer, who selects only that information which is of relevance or interest to him. Widespread awareness of the tobacco-health issue means that an additional barrier is formed in the case of cigarette advertisements. There is no evidence that tobacco advertising influences non-smokers (either children or adults) to take up smoking.