Inflationary expectations and transmission of inflation under floating exchange rates

Zusammenfassung Inflationserwartungen und übertragung von Inflation bei flexiblen Wechselkursen. — Dieser Aufsatz befaΒt sich mit den Inflationserwartungen, die vom Devisenmarkt herrühren, und der Art, wie diese von auΒen kommende Preisinipulse auf den Inlandsmarkt übertragen. Mit einem Modell wird analysiert, wie sich nach einer exogenen Verschiebung der Wechselkurserwartungen und/oder nach einer erwarteten Ver?nderung des ausl?ndischen Preisniveaus das inl?ndische Preisniveau verh?lt. Hervorgehoben werden einige Implikationen für Devisenmarktinterventionen und stabilit?tspolitische MaΒnahmen in offenen Volkswirtschaften mit schwankenden Wechselkursen.

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Résumé Expectatives inflationnistes et transmission d’inflation sous le régime des taux de change flottants. — Cet article s’occupe d’expectatives inflationnistes qui résultent du marché de change et la transmission des perturbations de prix à l’économie locale. Un modéle est appliqué à analyser le développement du prix local qui suit à un changement exogéne des expectatives concernant le taux de change et/ou le taux attendu du changement du prix étranger. L’auteur attire l’attention sur quelques implications du modéle présenté pour ne pas intervenir aux marchés de change et pour l’efficacité des politiques de stabilisation de prix dans les économies ouvertes avec des taux de change flottants.

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Resumen Expectativas iriflacionarias y transmisi?n de inflatión bajo tipos de cambio flotantes. — Este artfculo se ocupa de la naturaleza de las expectativas inflacionarias que surgen del mercado cambiario, y de la manera que ellas transmiten las perturbaciones de precios a la economfa domèstica. El modelo se emplea para analizar el comportamiento domèstico de precios que le sigue a un desplazamiento exógeno en las expectativas respecta del tipo de cambio y/o la tasa de cambio esperada en el nivel de precios externo. El artfculo centra la atenci?n sobre algunas implicaciones de este marco particular para la no-intervención en los mercados cambiarios extranjeros, y para la efectividad de polfticas de estabilización de precios en economfas abiertas con tipos de cambio volátiles.

     

Does the Notion of ‘Doing Well by Doing Good’ Prevail Among Entrepreneurial Ventures in a Developing Nation?

The rise in ethical and social responsibility awareness in contemporary businesses has led to assumptions that the associated behaviours would enable competitive advantage to be attained as a firm distinguishes itself from its competitors through such practices. This paper reports on a study conducted on the prevalence of such practices among entrepreneurial ventures in an emerging economy (Malaysia), and the effect of such practices on both financial and non-financial performance. A sequential inter-method mixing design was employed in which during stage 1, a series of semi-structured interviews with ten Malaysian SME founder-owners were conducted. Stage 2 involved a survey in which a total of 212 usable questionnaires were received. The results of the first phase of the research (qualitative) found evidence that entrepreneurial ventures in Malaysia do generally engage in both ethical and socially responsible practices. The subsequent model testing using SEM, however, revealed that while ethical practices were positively associated with venture performance, socially responsible practices were not. This may indicate that while entrepreneurial ventures in emerging economies like Malaysia become quickly aware of the more serious consequences of not adopting ethical practices, the concern for social issues may still be lacking, i.e., in terms of motivations, they may be closer to the profitable end of the philanthropy versus profitability spectrum. While the findings may be equivocal, we believe that the paper makes the following two significant contributions: (1) it provides an empirical test of the importance of ethical and socially responsible practices to entrepreneurial venture performance and (2) it furthers understanding of how and why this may be different in an emerging economy context.     

The legal framework and initiatives for promoting safety in the United Arab Emirates

Injury is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE is a rapidly developing country with fast economic growth, demographical and environmental changes that are associated with new hazards emerging at a similar pace. The UAE as a federal entity has federal and local systems responsible for safety policy, regulations and enforcement. To set priorities for safety promotion and injury prevention, it is necessary to have data on the most frequent external causes of injury and the main individual, equipment and environmental risk factors that contribute to injury. However good quality data for injury prevention are scarce. The aim of this paper is to describe the scale of injury as a public health problem in the UAE, and the development of safety policies, regulations and promotion efforts with special emphasis on traffic, occupational and child safety.     

Learning in a double-phase cobweb model

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this paper, we study a class of markets, among which we can mention agricultural and energy markets, characterized by seasonality, i.e., in which demand...     

An evolutionary Cournot oligopoly model with imitators and perfect foresight best responders

We consider the competition among quantity setting players in a linear evolutionary environment. To set their outputs, players adopt, alternatively, the best response rule having perfect foresight or an imitative rule. Players are allowed to change their behavior through an evolutionary mechanism according to which the rule with better performance will attract more followers. The relevant stationary state of the model describes a scenario where players produce at the Cournot‐Nash level. Due to the presence of imitative behavior, we find that the number of players and implementation costs, needed to the best response exploitation, have an ambiguous role in determining the stability properties of the equilibrium and double stability thresholds can be observed. Differently, the role of the intensity of choice, representing the evolutionary propensity to switch to the most profitable rule, has a destabilizing role, in line with the common occurrence in evolutionary models. The global analysis of the model reveals that increasing values of the intensity of choice parameter determine increasing dynamic complexities for the internal attractor representing a population where both decision mechanisms coexist.     

Nonlinearities in the real exchange rates: new evidence from developed and developing countries

This paper investigates nonlinearities in the dynamics of real exchange rates. We use Monte Carlo simulations to establish the size properties of the Teräsvirta-Anderson test, when the dynamics of the real exchange rate is influenced by an exogenous process. In addition, we show that a modified nonlinearity test, which includes additional right-hand-side variables, performs much better than the original in both Monte Carlo exercises and in the actual data on 1431 bilateral real exchange rate series. Finally, we investigate the dynamics of the real exchange rate for both developed and developing countries using the modified test for the recent floating period. In general, the results find a greater incidence of nonlinear dynamics for developing country real exchange rates.     

Self serving reference points in double auctions

We present a novel approach for modelling self serving bias by way of reference dependence. Bias is modelled as a systematic individual level deviation of the endogenous reference point from the expected price of a good in a two person k-double auction. We find that bias decreases the efficiency of the model, and that efficiency is decreasing in both the level of bias and reference dependence.     

Accident risk analysis based on motorway exposure: an application of benchmarking technique for human safety

Abstract

Accident risk analysis for human safety and infrastructural improvement are key requirements of the engineering sector. The purpose of this paper is to identify and prioritize problematic segments of roads based upon the risk evaluation concept and to focus on the severity of accidents regarding human life loss and easy manoeuvring. This study includes the concept of considering road segments as decision-making units for application of data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique which has no compulsion of the distribution function and critical assumptions, unlike the multiple regression models. According to the proposed methodology, a section of Motorway (M-2) Lahore-Islamabad has been analyzed. Out of 200 segments under consideration, 99 segments were selected with at least one accident and one injury or fatality. Furthermore, for risk calculation and ranking of road segments, the DEA technique along with the cross-risk matrix method was applied. This optimization technique could not only be helpful in ranking but also technical decision-making and prioritizations for safety improvement, policymaking and budget allocation.     

Developing a Website Service Quality Scale: A Confirmatory Factor Analytic Approach

The surge in online consumers and their preference to buy over the Internet is nudging marketers to embrace e-commerce, but mere online presence without distinct user experience may not help attract and retain customers. Research suggests that website service quality is a determining factor in Internet buyer behavior. Several measurement tools have been used in the context of developed economies to measure e-service quality. The very few empirical researches in emerging economies, including India, motivated the researchers in the present study to refine the WEBQUAL 4.0 scale developed by Barnes and Vidgen (2002 Barnes, S. J., and R. T. Vidgen. 2002. An integrative approach to the assessment of e-commerce quality. Journal of Electronic Commerce Research 3 (3):114–27. [Google Scholar]) to measure the service quality at shopping websites. The present study employs tools like SPSS 20.0 and AMOSS 20.0 to analyze the data through exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Study results suggest a 14-item WEBQUAL four factor (Ease of Use, Information Quality, Reliability, and Empathy) scale that is appropriate for Indian settings.     

Public Revenue‐Expenditure Nexus in South Africa: Are there Asymmetries?

This paper re‐examines the government revenue and expenditure relationship in South Africa using Enders and Siklos' Threshold adjustment and Granger causality tests. The paper allows for structural breaks in the unit root and cointegration tests. The results indicate the absence of any asymmetries in both the threshold autoregression and momentum threshold autoregression specifications of adjustments in the South African's budgeting process. The estimated symmetric error‐correction models provide support for the fiscal synchronization hypothesis of government revenues and expenditures for long‐run and short‐run dynamic equilibrium. These findings indicate that the South African fiscal authorities should try to maintain or even improve the control of their fiscal policy instruments to sustain the prudent budgetary process.