Artificial neural networks with feature transformation based on domain knowledge for the prediction of stock index futures

A feature transformation method based on domain knowledge for arti?cial neural networks (ANNs) is proposed. The method of feature transformation based on domain knowledge converts continuous values into discrete values in accordance with the knowledge of experts in speci?c application domains. This approach effectively ?lters data, trains the classi?er, and extracts the rules from the classi?er. In addition, it reduces the dimensionality of the feature space, which not only decreases the cost and time in the operation but also enhances the generalizability of the classi?er. The experimental results of the proposed approach will be compared and tested statistically with the results of the linear transformation method. The results show that the method of feature transformation based on domain knowledge outperforms the linear transformation in modelling of ANNs. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The service sector of Cuba: An analysis and critique

The Cuban economy has experienced a significant increase in foreign direct investment over the past decade due to the end of the Soviet Union and the establishment of more liberal trade policies. Although the U.S. embargo of trade with Cuba still exists, there has been movement lately that suggests the end of the four‐decades‐old policy. The purpose of this article is to analyze the current Cuban business environment and to identify potential entrepreneurial opportunities in the service sector. Major trade partners are also reviewed and managerial implications discussed. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Book Reviews

Richard Robison, Indonesia: The Rise of Capital, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 1986 pp. xxv + 425. Indexed. $19.95.

W.L. Korthals Altes, Changing Economy in Indonesia: Volume 7: Balance of Payments, 1822–1939, Amsterdam: The Royal Tropical Institute. pp. 167.

Trade Statistics, Java, 1823–73: Trade Statistics, Indonesia 1874–1937. Mededeelingen van het Centraal Kantoor voor de Statistiek nos 160 and 161

Om Prakash, The Dutch East India Company and the Economy of Bengal, 1630–1720, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985 pp. xii + 291, map, tables. graphs, glossary, index. Cloth $38.50.

Sediono M.P. Tjondronegoro, Social Organization and Planned Development in Rural Java, Singapore, Oxford University Press for the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1984, pp. xv + 326.

A. Fujimoto and F. Matsuda (eds), An Economic Study of Rice Farming in West Java, Tokyo: NODAI Research Institute, Tokyo, University of Agriculture, 1986.

A. Fujimoto and T. Matsuda (eds), A Comparative Study of the Structure of Rice Productivity and Rural Society in Southeast Asta Two Village Studies in Indonesta and Thailand, Tokyo: University of Agriculture, 1985. Reviewed by C.L J. van der Meer (1986) Bulletin of Indanesian Economic Studies, 22(2) pp. 124–27

David Jenkins, Suharto and His Generals: Indonesian Military Politics, 1975–1983, Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Monograph Series No. 64, 1984, pp. xiii + 280. US$12.50. David Bourchier, Dynamics of Dissent in Indonesia Sawito and the Phantom Coup, Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Interim Reports Series, 1984, pp. 128. US$9.00.

Linda G. Martin (ed), The ASEAN Success Story: Social, Economic, and Political Dimensions, East-West Center, distributed by the University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu, 1987, pp. xviii + 253. $15.00.

Mubyarto and Edy Suandy Hamid (eds), Kredit Pedesaan di Indonesia, Badan Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi, U.G.M., 1986 pp, 160.

Ron Hatley, et al., Other Javas Away from the Kraton, Melbourne: Monash University, 1984, pp. 60.

K.S. Nathan and M. Pathmanathan (eds), Trilateralism in Asia: Problems and Prospects in US-Japan-ASEAN Relations, Antara Book Company, Kuala Lumpur, 1986, pp. xviii + 205. $18.00 (cloth): $12.00 (paper).     

The Prosecution of Public Figures and the Separation of Powers. Confusion within the Executive Branch – A Conceptual Framework

Criminal investigation and prosecution of politicians, top civil servants and other public figures are topics frequently discussed in the media. The nature of the investigating or prosecuting authority varies between countries – from the general public prosecutor, through magistrates to independent counsels or parliamentary investigation commissions. This paper analyzes the role and status of public prosecutors within the separation of powers-concept. Prosecutors are usually part of the executive and not the judicial branch, which implies that they do not enjoy the same degree of independence as judges, and are ultimately subordinated to the directives of the minister of justice or the government. Conflicts of interest may hence arise if members of government can use the criminal process for their own or partisan interests. The incentives of public prosecutors in different jurisdictions are compared.     

Fiscal Policy in Europe: How Effective Are Automatic Stabilisers?

It is largely recognised that fiscal policy will have largerresponsibilities for cyclicalstabilisation in EMU given the loss of the monetary instrument.At the same time, theEMU's budgetary framework emphasises the need to rely onautomatic fiscal stabilisers,rather than active policies in cushioning the business cycle.We show that automaticstabilisers are relatively powerful in the event of shocksto private consumption, but lessso in the case of shocks to private investment and exports.In the case of supply sideshocks, the automatic stabilisers are largely ineffective,but this may actually be a goodthing to the extent that supply-side disturbances call forstructural adjustment rather thancyclical stabilisation.     

This is what the leading indicators lead

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, non‐parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non‐parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real‐time analysis. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The political economy of industrialisation

This paper analyses how incentives under different sets of political institutions map into policies that promote industrialisation. I set out an endogenous growth model with non-overlapping generations, where agents are heterogeneous with respect to wealth, skills and political power. The skills of the political elite play a crucial role for industrialisation to occur. It is shown that a flat wealth distribution and a skilled political elite enhance development the most in elitist regimes, while democracies perform as well as elitist regimes in terms of industrialisation. The theoretical results regarding elitist regimes are in line with evidence on the Industrial Revolution.     

Linking Public Investment to Private Investment. The Case of Spanish Regions

Public investment constitutes one of the main instruments of regional policies. The existence of a direct link between infrastructure and regional income per capita is usually accepted. Literature also describes a positive effect of public investment on private capital accumulation. This paper seeks to provide new empirical evidence on this latter relationship for the case of Spanish regions over the period 1965–1997 using panel data methodology. The results show a positive effect of productive and social public investment (especially in education) on private investment. The spillover effects generated by the productive infrastructures located in other regions do not seem to encourage the private investment in neighbouring regions. Public consumption and interest rate exert a negative influence on private capital accumulation. These results are robust to changes in the econometric specification.     

Book Reviews

Leon A. Mears, The New Rice Economy of Indonesia, Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press, 1981, pp. xxiii + 605. Price US$15.

Alfian, Mely G. Tan, Selo Soemardjan (eds). Kemirkinan Struktural: Suatu Bunga Rampai (Structural Poverty: A Collection). Jakarta: Yayasan Ilmu-Ilmu Sosial (YIIS), 1980. pp. 189. Rp 2000.

Thee Kian Wie, Pemerataan- Kemiskinan- Ketimpangan (Equalization-Poverty-Uneven Distribution), Jakarta: Sinar Harapan. 1981, pp. 152. Rp 1750.

Bulletin Leknns, Year 1 No. 2, Feb. 1982, Special Edition on Employment Opportunity, Poverty and Population Mobility in Rural Areas, pp. 146.

Mubyarto (ed.), Growth and Equity in Indonesian Agricultural Development, Jakarta: Yayasan Agro Ekonomika, 1982. pp. xv + 258.

Muriel Charras, De la forêt malefique à I'herbe divine [From Malign Jungle to Divine Grain]: La transmigration en Indonesie: Les Balinais a Sulawesi, Paris: Editions de la Maison des sciences de I'homme 1982, pp, viii + 341. Price Fr. 90.00.

Yujiro Hayami and Masao Kikuchi. Asian Village Economy at the Crossroads: An Economic Approach to Institutional Change, Tokyo: University of Tokyo Press, 1981, pp. xvi + 275. Yen 4000. Geoffrey B. Hainsworth (ed.), Village-level Modernization in Southeast Asia: The Political Economy of Rice and Water. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press. 1982. pp. ix + 411. Can$34.00.

Colin MacAndrews and Chia Lin-Sien (eds.). Too Rapid Rural Development: Perceptions and Perspectives from Southeast Asia, Athens: University of Ohio Press, pp. xiv + 369. Cloth $19.95, paper $10.95.

Gary E. Hansen (ed.), Agricultural and Rural Development in Indonesia, Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1981, pp. xiv + 312.

William L. Collier, Declining Labour Absorption (1878 to 1980) in Javanese Rice Production, Bogor: Agro-economic Survey, Rural Dynamics Study, Publication No. 2, 1980, pp. 120.