The Dutch disease: The Canadian evidence

Zusammenfassung Die ⋯holl?ndische Krankheit”: Der kanadische Befund. — Der Autor betrachtet detailliert das Ausma\ der sektoralen Verschiebungen und untersucht die strukturellen Anpassungsprozesse in der kanadischen Volkswirtschaft. Er zeigt, da\ das Wachstumsmuster nicht nur zwischen den Sektoren asymmetrisch ist, sondern auch zwischen zwei Phasen des Konjunkturzyklus. Dementsprechend scheint der Strukturwandel einem zyklischen Pfad gefolgt zu sein. Diese Hypothese wird empirisch getestet unter Verwendung von Vierteljahresdaten aus der Zeit zwischen 1962 und 1983. Eine disaggregierte Analyse der Lohnentwicklung zeigt eine ?hnliche Asymmetrie. Dies wird zum gro\en Teil auf die Rohstofflastigkeit der kanadischen Wirtschaft zurückgeführt. In einem verallgemeinerten Rahmen für die ⋯holl?ndische Krankheit” l?\t sich daraus entnehmen, da\ die Rohstofflastigkeit zum strukturellen Wandel beigetragen und auch die zyklischen Charakteristika bestimmt hat.

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Résumé La maladie néerlandaise: l’évidence canadienne. — Cette étude jette un coup d’oeuil sur la dimension des déplacements sectoriels et examine le processus d’ajustement structurel dans l’économie canadienne. Il est constaté que la croissance se développe d’une manière asymétrique en ce qui concerne les secteurs et les deux phases consécutives du cycle conjoncturel. Pour cette raison le changement structurel semble avoir suivi une voie cyclique. Cette hypothèse est examinée par un test empirique en utilisant des dates trimestrielles pendant la période 1962–83. Une analyse désagrégée du développement des salaires démontre une asymétrie similaire. Ce fait est largement attribué au caractère de l’économie canadienne basée sur des ressources naturelles. Dans un cadre généralisé de la maladie néerlandaise cela peut être expliqué d’avoir contribué au changement structurel et aussi d’avoir déterminé le caractère cyclique.

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Resumen La enfermedad holandesa: evidencia para el Canadá. — En este trabajo se analiza detalladamente la magnitud de cambios sectoriales y se examina la naturaleza del proceso de ajuste estructural de la economía canadiense. Se encuentra que además de ser asimétrica entre los sectores, la pauta de crecimiento también es asimétrica entre dos fases del ciclo económico. Por ello, el cambio estructural parece haber seguido una trayectoria c?clica. Esto se estudia emp?ricamente utilizando datos trimestrales correspondientes al período 1962-1983. El análisis desagregado del comportamiento salarial muestra una asimetría similar. Esto es atribuído en gran parte a la importancia de los recursos naturales para la economia canadiense. En el marco generalizado de la enfermedad holandesa esto puede haber contribuído al cambio estructural y a determinar sus características cíclicas.

     

Monetary vs. fiscal policy: Some evidence from vector autoregression for India

This paper investigates the relative importance of monetary and fiscal policy for India. Unlike previous studies, a more general approach of multivariate vector autoregression has been employed. Analysis of the causality results based on the joint F-tests and the dynamic multipliers based on the variance decompositions and the impulse response functions unambiguously support the Keynesian stance on the importance of fiscal policy. There is very little evidence of exogeneity of money supply, undermining the validity of the monetarist proposition. On the contrary, Indian monetary policy appears to have accommodated changes in government expenditure, prices and output, lending support to the structuralist-Mundellian views.     

Book reviews

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Audit report lag: the role of auditor type and increased competition in the audit market

This study investigates the effect of auditor type (private vs. state) and increased competition in an audit market on audit report lag (ARL). This is the first study to provide evidence regarding the effect of audit market competition on ARL. Utilising structure–conduct–performance theory, we predict that competition pressures private auditors to be more efficient and to have less reporting lag than state auditors. We also predict that competition among auditors after a liberalisation period forces auditors to be more efficient and to record less ARL than before. We use a unique data set in Iran, whereby the audit market liberalisation (an audit market where services were previously provided primarily by a state entity) has resulted in both state and private auditors simultaneously providing audit services. The findings are consistent with the following hypothesis, that is ARL is shorter for private auditors than it is for state auditors, and ARL decreases as competition increases in the Iranian audit market. Consistent with the structure–conduct–performance theory, the findings suggest that increased competition in the audit market results in higher efficiency, as reflected by a shorter ARL.     

A Market Efficiency Comparison of Islamic and Non-Islamic Stock Indices

This article examines the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) and the random walk hypothesis (RWH) for nine conventional and nine Islamic stock indices: Asia-Pacific, Canadian, Developed Country, Emerging, European, Global, Japanese, UK, and United States. It investigates whether Islamic stock indices are more, less, or as efficient as their conventional counterparts. We test four sub-periods of bullish and bearish stock markets, together with the financial meltdown and its recovery, over the period 1997–2012. We use the Escanciano and Lobato’s (2009) automatic portmanteau test (AQ) and Deo’s (2000) test for the MDH. We also apply the automatic variance ratio test (AVR) developed by Choi (1999) and Kim (2009) for the RWH. Over the period from 1997 to 2012, we find that three conventional indices (Europe, Japan, and UK) are efficient, but that none of the Islamic indices are efficient in these markets. During the recent financial crisis, our results indicate slightly more efficiency for the Islamic indices than their conventional counterparts. Our study finds that overall the conventional indices are more efficient than their Islamic counterparts. Nevertheless, during periods of general downturns the Islamic indices have shown the same level of efficiency as their counterparts. Furthermore, it appears that during the last two sub-periods under study, the Islamic indices have moved toward efficiency, displaying the same level of efficiency as their counterparts.     

Egypt’s digital activism and the Dictator’s Dilemma: An evaluation

In recent years academics have used the term Dictator’s Dilemma to describe the impact of the Internet on undemocratic societies. The Dilemma says that if dictatorial rulers permit increased Internet penetration, they risk overthrow; if they do not, they isolate themselves from the global information economy, causing economic decline. Since Internet penetration world-wide has deepened, the Dilemma implies that dictatorships are bound to fall one by one. But how good is the Dilemma as an analytical device? Not very, this essay argues, using the Egyptian uprising of January 2011 as a case study. By examining the state’s Internet politics before 2011, the use of the Internet by Egyptian resistance activists, and the power relations that existed after the overthrow of the Dictator, this essay argues that the Dictator’s Dilemma blinds scholars to what really happens on the ground.