Closed‐form option pricing formulas with extreme events

This paper explores the effect of extreme events or big jumps downwards and upwards on the jump‐diffusion option pricing model of Merton (1976). It starts by obtaining a special case of the jump‐diffusion model where there is a positive probability of a big jump downwards. Then, it obtains a new limiting case where there is an asymptotically big jump upwards. The paper extends these models to allow both types of jumps. In some cases these formulas nest Samuelson's (1965) formulas. This simple analysis leads to several closed‐form solutions for calls and puts, which are able to generate smiles, and skews with similar shapes to those observed in the marketplace. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:213–230, 2008     

The Price Relevance of Fiscal Developments

We use Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Estimation methods to assess the link between prices, bond yields and the fiscal behavior. A first equation determines the country-specific cost of government financing via the long-term government bond yield, as a function of budget balance positions. A second equation links the price level to the cost of government financing. Our results for 15 EU countries in the period 1980Q1–2013Q4 show that improvements in the fiscal stance lead to persistent falls in sovereign yields; higher sovereign yields are reflected in upward price movements; improvements in the fiscal stance in recession times lead to short-term decreases in yields and better fiscal stance in expansions induce downward movement in bond yields only after 8 quarters.     

The Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria: Some Evidence from the European Union and Portugal

Observing the statistical relationship between business cycles correlation and trade intensity in the European Union, euro zone, and the Portuguese economy, we conclude that there is, in general, a positive effect that supports the endogeneity argument proposed by Frankel and Rose (The Economic Journal 108(449):pp. 1009–1025, 1998). However, if we analyse this relationship in sub-periods – 1967–1975, 1976–1985, 1986–1992, and 1993–2003 – we conclude that endogeneity hypothesis just hold in the first two, although the correlations are increasing. This could mean that, after the Single European Act in 1986, other forces beyond trade are contributing to business cycle synchronization. The Portuguese business cycle correlation with the European Union and the Euro zone had also increased in these four decades, despite the fact that endogeneity hypothesis is at a 90 percent confidence level. We also analyse the bilateral relationships between the Portuguese economy and the other European Union countries and find that the endogeneity is confirmed in just four cases: Spain, Ireland, Netherlands, and UK.     

Focus on cash transfer programs: assessing the eligibility of the Bolsa Família program in Brazil

Quality & Quantity - Income transfer programs are important public policies in fighting poverty and reducing inequality. However, such a strategy is often criticised as being ineffective, as...