Migration in late working age and early retirement

The publication of population forecasts for small areas has highlighted the primitive basis for their migration components, while a recent growth of interest in the migration of elderly people has revealed pronounced differentials by age, sex and marital status. The paper presents a detailed examination of these differentials from United States and British census sources. It shows that improved forecasts of the volume of internal migration are produced by combining age specific participation rates with population forecasts for single or quinquennial years of age. Different series, based on different elderly cohorts, diverge in their forecasts by as much as 20%. Illustrative forecasts are presented and some implications for migration theory are discussed.     

Violence: the disease and the vaccine

With the rise of political correctness has come a condemnation of all violence. Individuals have been discouraged from deterring violence by threatening violence. Thus society's spontaneous reactions to violent attacks on the civil order have been repressed and official law enforcement is unable to cope with the consequences.     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

Estimating the impact of showroom entertainment on the gaming volumes of Las Vegas hotel–casinos

Increases in showroom headcounts are found to increase casino gaming volumes in two Las Vegas Strip casinos. This study examines long-standing assumptions regarding the indirect contribution of investment-intensive showroom entertainment. Such contributions are difficult to measure and the literature contains no rigorously derived estimates of gaming contributions from in-house entertainment venues. Despite the paucity of research, gaming companies are willing to invest staggering sums in showroom entertainment, based in large part on the belief that traffic from these venues will increase gaming volumes. Using estimates produced by time series regression models, the two showrooms produced average gaming win contributions of $11.28 and $19.32, per paid showroom attendee. Based on these estimates alone, extravagant investment in showrooms would have to be justified by other means. Future studies aimed at understanding the showroom contributions to non-gaming profit centers and the role of showrooms in the high-roller's patronage decision are both recommended.     

ROBUST BOUNDS FOR FORWARD START OPTIONS

We consider the problem of finding a model‐free upper bound on the price of a forward start straddle with payoff . The bound depends on the prices of vanilla call and put options with maturities T₁ and T₂ , but does not rely on any modeling assumptions concerning the dynamics of the underlying. The bound can be enforced by a super‐replicating strategy involving puts, calls, and a forward transaction. We find an upper bound, and a model which is consistent with T₁ and T₂ vanilla option prices for which the model‐based price of the straddle is equal to the upper bound. This proves that the bound is best possible. For lognormal marginals we show that the upper bound is at most 30% higher than the Black–Scholes price. The problem can be recast as finding the solution to a Skorokhod embedding problem with nontrivial initial law so as to maximize .