Agglomeration effects in Europe

The paper estimates agglomeration effects for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. Estimation takes into account endogeneity of the spatial distribution of employment and spatial fixed effects. Empirical results suggest that agglomeration effects in these European countries are only slightly smaller than agglomeration effects in the US: the estimated elasticity of (average) labor productivity with respect to employment density is 4.5 percent compared to 5 percent in the US.     

The somatic marker hypothesis: A neural theory of economic decision

Modern economic theory ignores the influence of emotions on decision-making. Emerging neuroscience evidence suggests that sound and rational decision making, in fact, depends on prior accurate emotional processing. The somatic marker hypothesis provides a systems-level neuroanatomical and cognitive framework for decision-making and its influence by emotion. The key idea of this hypothesis is that decision-making is a process that is influenced by marker signals that arise in bioregulatory processes, including those that express themselves in emotions and feelings. This influence can occur at multiple levels of operation, some of which occur consciously, and some of which occur non-consciously. Here we review studies that confirm various predictions from the hypothesis, and propose a neural model for economic decision, in which emotions are a major factor in the interaction between environmental conditions and human decision processes, with these emotional systems providing valuable implicit or explicit knowledge for making fast and advantageous decisions.     

This is what the leading indicators lead

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, non‐parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non‐parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real‐time analysis. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between goods and services inflation in the United States

In this paper, we model the long-run relationship between goods and services inflation for the United States over the period 1968:1–2003:3. Our empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration that consider the possibility of a nonlinear relationship between the two inflation series. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration would be rejected in favor of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. Consequently, we could expect a cointegrating relationship only when the divergence between services inflation and goods inflation is above the threshold point estimate.     

A complete characterization of Pareto optimality for general OLG economies

In the context of general pure exchange OLG economies where agents can have heterogeneous longevities, we provide both sufficient and necessary conditions for Pareto optimality of competitive equilibria. For the case in which all agents live for the same number of periods, we find that these conditions are equivalent. We also find this equivalence when agents can have different lifetimes, but in this case we need to impose particular restrictions on relative equilibrium prices. Moreover, we show that without these conditions on prices the equivalence, and hence a full characterization, is not necessarily obtained.     

Linking Public Investment to Private Investment. The Case of Spanish Regions

Public investment constitutes one of the main instruments of regional policies. The existence of a direct link between infrastructure and regional income per capita is usually accepted. Literature also describes a positive effect of public investment on private capital accumulation. This paper seeks to provide new empirical evidence on this latter relationship for the case of Spanish regions over the period 1965–1997 using panel data methodology. The results show a positive effect of productive and social public investment (especially in education) on private investment. The spillover effects generated by the productive infrastructures located in other regions do not seem to encourage the private investment in neighbouring regions. Public consumption and interest rate exert a negative influence on private capital accumulation. These results are robust to changes in the econometric specification.     

Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.     

Ethical aspects of an urban catastrophe

As a consequence of the collapse of a building in Barcelona, in December 1990, it was discovered that a large number of dwellings, mainly in Barcelona but also in other towns of Catalonia, were affected by a structural defect known as aluminosis, consisting of a deterioration of the reinforced concrete manufactured using aluminous cement, which considerably reduced its strength and that of the steel embedded in the concrete. This brought to light a series of economic, social, political and also moral problems, such as the use of the aluminous cement itself — a quality product but which requires careful handling —, the lack of regulation concerning the product and its use in construction, the poor state of repair of the buildings affected, the careless manner in which they had been built, the lag in technical knowledge, the financial situation of the people affected by the aluminosis, etc.This document provides a full account of the events and their historical, technical, economic and legal background, paying particular attention to the ethical problems created by the situation.Antonio Argandoña is Professor at IESE, the International Graduate School of Management of the University of Navarra in Barcelona (Spain), where he teaches Economics and Business Ethics. He is a member of the Executive Committee of EBEN (European Business Ethics Network), and of the Organizing Committees of the Second (Barcelona, 1989) and Sixth (Oslo, 1993) European Conferences on Business Ethics. He is also co-editor ofPeople in Corporations: Ethical Responsibilities and Corporate Effectiveness (Kluwer, 1990) and author of many articles on business and economics ethics. This article was presented to the Fifth European Conference on Business Ethics (Paris, October 1992).     

The rise of cost accounting: evidence from Italy

Accounting historians link the origins of cost accounting to the rise of manufacturing firms and, in a more detailed way, to efficiency control, pricing and decision-making problems faced in those organizations. To date, the international debate has mainly focused on practices in the USA, Great Britain and France, with little evidence available of developments in other countries, such as Italy. In this paper, the authors analyse the development of cost accounting in an Italian firm, 'La Magona d'Italia'. This iron, steel and tinplate firm, situated in Piombino, is observed over the period 1865-1940, i.e. during the central phase of the industrial revolution in Italy. We find that several factors influenced the implementation of a cost accounting system at Magona, including efficiency control, strategic decision making, and stock valuation. We also find a strong British influence on Magona's strategy, organization and information system, particularly in respect of finance, managers, technology and accounting practices. There is little evidence that Italian accounting traditions and practice played much of a role.