The effect of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle regimes

We study the impact of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle expansion and recession regimes using analytical, simulation and empirical methods. Analytically, we show that the X‐11 adjustment filter both reduces the magnitude of change at turning points and reduces the depth of recessions, with specific effects depending on the length of the recession. A Monte Carlo analysis using Markov‐switching models confirms these properties, with particularly undesirable effects in delaying the recognition of the end of a recession. However, seasonal adjustment can help to clarify the true regime when this is well underway. These results continue to hold when a seasonally non‐stationary process with regime‐dependent mean is misspecified as one with deterministic seasonal effects. The empirical findings, based on four coincident US business cycle indicators, reinforce the analytical and simulation results by showing that seasonal adjustment leads to the identification of longer and shallower recessions than obtained using unadjusted data. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Italian Socialists Warm to Vouchers

The political transfer of decision in education from producer to consumer has so far foiled in Britain. But the device to achieve it, by replacing 'free' schooling by purchasing power for parents, continues to excite discussion in the USA, Canada, Australia, Sweden — and most recently in Italy, where it has been championed by socialist politicians and academics. Professor Antonio Martino of the University of Rome analyses the reaction to the declaration by Claudio Martelli, deputy leader of the Italian Socialist Party.     

Private-to-private Corruption

The cases of corruption reported by the media tend almost always to involve a private party (a citizen or a corporation) that pays, or promises to pay, money to a public party (a politician or a public official, for example) in order to obtain an advantage or avoid a disadvantage. Because of the harm it does to economic efficiency and growth, and because of its social, political and ethical consequences, private-to-public corruption has been widely studied. Private-to-private corruption, by contrast, has been relatively neglected and only recently has started to receive the attention it deserves. The purpose of this paper is to offer some thoughts on the nature and importance of private-to-private corruption; the legal treatment it receives in some of the world's leading countries; and the measures that companies can take to combat it, with special consideration of its ethical aspects.     

Cultural Tourism And Flamenco In The City Of Cordoba (Spain)

Flamenco is a tourist product that can attract many visitors from around the world, and the city of Cordoba (Spain) has an important role in the origins of flamenco. This work studies whether the satisfaction of cultural tourists who visit the city can be influenced by cultural offers related to flamenco. To achieve this objective, fieldwork was carried out based on 709 surveys conducted in the most important flamenco “tablaos” (stages) of the city. The techniques of factorial analysis and linear adjustment were used. The results show that flamenco can be a product that complements the satisfaction of cultural tourists.     

Planning considerations for cultural tourism: a case study of four European cities

Utilising the information gathered in four European cities, this paper discusses and tests a framework of reference for visitor-friendliness, a complex concept that encapsulates the main dimensions of the urban tourism product such as its quality, accessibility and image projection. This concept is particularly relevant to assess whether investments in culture and hospitality genuinely respond to the impulses coming from the market. The case studies highlight how specific soft elements of the urban tourism product are the ones that matter most in determining the attractiveness of a city for international visitors, and yet they are often overlooked by city planners. The paper also identifies a number of “best practice” in tourism management.     

Enhancing youth's attitudes towards microcredit in the bottom of the pyramid markets

The bottom of the pyramid (BOP) market comprises a huge customer size of approximately 4 billion globally; hence, segmentation is necessary within this market. The BOP market refers to an aggregate of customers who survive on relatively low‐income levels. In this respect, youth in war‐affected regions can be considered to be a segment of the BOP market. However, there is scant research on customers' attitudes and purchase behaviours in the BOP markets or segments therein. Hence, the purpose of this research is to investigate war‐affected youth's attitudes towards microcredit and the related drivers of these attitudes. The literature revealed four types of attitudes towards microcredit: positive affect, perceived benefits, perceived deterrents and default risk perceptions. Also, knowledge of microcredit and entrepreneurial desire were considered to be the drivers of these attitudes. A total of 795 valid completed surveys were collected from youth aged 18 and above who live in the Northern Province of Sri Lanka. The findings revealed that positive affect enhanced intentions to obtain microcredit, whereas perceived deterrents reduced them. Knowledge of microcredit enhanced attitudes towards microcredit. Also, entrepreneurial desire enhanced the association between positive affect and intentions to obtain microcredit and it decreased the negative association between perceived deterrents and intentions to obtain microcredit. The implications to theory and practice have been discussed which will go a long way in enhancing the attitudes towards microcredit among war‐affected youth and possibly those in the other segments of the BOP market.     

Women on the Board and Managers’ Pay: Evidence from Spain

The current literature shows great interest in the issue of gender diversity on boards of directors. Some studies have hypothesized a direct relationship between diversity and the value of the firm, but not many examine the intermediate mechanisms that may exert an influence on such relationships. We employ two stages of GMM estimation methodology to exhibit evidences of the relationship between gender diversity and compensation of top managers in the Spanish context. Results show that gender diversity positively affects the effectiveness of boards—in terms of composition, structure, size and functioning—influencing a proper design of top managers compensation linked to company performance. Evidences suggest that legislative actions aimed at increasing the presence of women on boards of directors are justified not only for ethical reasons, but also for reasons of economic efficiency.     

A Psychological Reexamination of the Bertrand Paradox

The Bertrand paradox describes a situation in which two competing firms reach an outcome where both price at marginal cost. In laboratory experiments, this equilibrium is not generally observed. Existing empirical works on Bertrand competition have found evidence for boundedly rational models. We find that such models are useful in organizing behavior in early stages of the game, but less so in later stages. We show that a new model, coarse grid Nash equilibrium, based on the assumption that subjects discretize the strategy space, explains the data better.     

Risk-type density diagrams by crash type on two-lane rural roads

The research presented here aims to plot density diagrams per road crash risk type to identify all possible scenarios where driving is less than safe. The starting point was the prediction of injury crash rate on horizontal homogeneous segments of two-lane rural roads for three main injurious crash types (head-on/side collisions, rear-end crashes, and single-vehicle run-off-road crashes) as observed on the network. A careful analysis of the database shows that a wide variety of factors appear to be influenced or associated with the crash dynamic, as follows: the road scenario (combination of infrastructure and environmental conditions found at the site at the time of the crash), mean lane width, the horizontal curvature indicator (measurement of the curvature change rate), and mean speed. Crashes recorded from 2003 to 2010, of which 1597 were injurious, and 645 resulted only in damage to property, were analyzed on more than 3700?km of road network in Southern Italy. Generalized estimating equations with a negative binomial distribution were implemented. Risk-type density charts were plotted to thoroughly identify all possible combinations of existing explicative variables producing hazardous conditions on the road. The different shades in the diagrams represent different ranges of injurious crash rates: the white band shows low levels, while a black band shows high values. It is not possible to consider working on an explanatory variable to reduce hazardous conditions on the road network without also considering how this variation might affect the influence of the remaining explanatory variables on crash phenomena and, consequently, on the predictive model. The risk maps make it possible to keep under control in a simple and immediate approach the way each variable as a result of variations of a part or of all.