The use of consumer and business surveys in forecasting

Surveys improve forecasting performance by adding explanatory power to a model which is based on only past values of manufacturing growth. The issue addressed in this paper is whether surveys of production expectations, when added to equations that contain lagged values of a headline index pertaining to the real economy, improve forecasting performance. If so, it may be better for researchers to use not just the headline index, but production expectations or the Economic Sentiment Indicator if they wish to better predict manufacturing growth.     

Marketing Norms Measurement: An International Validation and Comparison

This article replicates a U.S. study of marketing norms in an international setting. The dimensionality and reliability of the scales are tested in the U.S., Singapore and South Africa. Support is found for the use of the scales, as modified. The norms of the current respondents are compared with those of the original U.S. respondents and each other. Differences between the three countries are found with respect to general honesty and integrity norms, but not for specific marketing-related norms. Differences between the original study results and the current findings are assessed in terms of methodological and substantive factors.     

Melamine in milk products in China: Examining the factors that led to deliberate use of the contaminant

On September 11, 2008, the Chinese government announced a recall of infant milk powder that was tainted by melamine, a chemical usually used in plastics. Consumption of melamine caused infants to develop kidney stones which, if left untreated, could cause renal failure and death. More than 290,000 people (most of them infant children) were poisoned and at least six babies are confirmed to have died from ingesting the melamine contaminated infant milk powder. The Chinese government imposed very high penalties on people and companies involved in the melamine scandal, including lifetime prison sentences and even executions. The problems in China’s dairy industry were a result of rapid growth fueled by large investments from multinational dairy firms, development of a highly modern and concentrated processing sector that obtained its raw materials from millions of small, poor and uneducated traditional farmers and government support and encouragement for growth but with little emphasis on inspection and safety issues. The melamine crisis prompted the Chinese government to bring in a new food safety law, mandate regular inspections of all companies involved in the food business with no exemptions and set new allowable tolerances for melamine in dairy products.     

Speaking to the mind or the heart: effects of matching hedonic versus utilitarian arguments and products

Message arguments influence beliefs about product benefits which influence overall product evaluations. Three studies show that matching hedonic versus utilitarian arguments and products enhance evaluations of utilitarian products, but not hedonic products. The results generalize across several argument manipulations and several product categories.     

Have health claims affected demand for fats and meats in Canada?

Chronic illness is a global epidemic and places significant economic and social burdens on societies. Research has shown that a healthy diet can be used to mitigate or significantly reduce the risk of many chronic illnesses. Health authorities around the world have begun regulating health claims on foods to encourage the consumption of healthy foods. However, the “ex post” efficacy of health claims regulations on consumers demand for healthy foods has not been assessed. The demand for fats and meats in Canada is estimated using a linear-approximate almost ideal demand system. The results indicate health claims decreased unhealthy food demand between 1.41% and 7.10% and increased healthy food demand between 1.95% and 8.50%.     

The Canadian Hedge Fund Industry: Performance and Market Timing

We analyze the risk and return characteristics of Canadian hedge funds based on a comprehensive database we compiled. We find that Canadian hedge funds have higher risk‐adjusted performance and different distributional characteristics relative to the global hedge fund indices. We investigate market timing by Canadian hedge funds and find that they do not time the Canadian or global stock and bond markets, but hedge funds in the Managed Futures strategy group time the commodity market. These results are robust to parameter instability and structural changes in the model. We also illustrate the impact of using local and global risk factors to analyze the performance of local investment firms.     

Inside the Black Box of IASB Standard Setting: Evidence from Board Meeting Audio Playbacks on the Amendment of IAS 19 (2011)

We provide evidence on the little researched internal sphere of private IASB standard setting, more specifically, on the dynamic of board discussions and the respective impact of exogenous input such as comment letters, the array of arguments evoked in IASB debates, individual board member contribution and board-staff relations. We conduct a content analysis of audio recordings of 14 IASB meetings on the amendment of IAS 19 Employee Benefits (2011) between November 2008 and February 2010. Our main findings comprise the argument-based handling of comment letters not being conditioned by the political or economic importance of the senders, the gatekeeper role of staff members in channelling exogenous input and their equal role in board discussions and the dominant reference to conceptual arguments there. We also point to the heterogeneous involvement of board members, their different attribution to key issues and to further observations regarding the meeting governance, board’s discussion culture and etiquette. Our paper adds to the literature on private IASB standard setting, pension accounting and group decision making.

Data: All data are available from the public sources identified in this paper