Trend-cycle correlation, drift break and the estimation of trend and cycle in Canadian GDP

Abstract.  Univariate correlated trend cycle models are highly sensitive to the specifications of breaks in the data. This paper argues, using Monte Carlo experiments, that a bivariate correlated unobserved components (UC) framework with breaks delivers substantially more accurate results for the trend-cycle parameters than the corresponding univariate frameworks in a finite sample size. The paper estimates stochastic trend and cyclical fluctuations in Canada from a bivariate UC model. Results show a fairly volatile stochastic trend after the drift break and the negative trend-cycle shock correlation are accounted for. The estimated cyclical component is large, persistent, and consistent with ECRI denoted Canadian recessions.     

Predicting Downturns in the US Housing Market: A Bayesian Approach

This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate), for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1–1994:Q4; and then forecasts one-to-four quarters-ahead real house price growth over the out-of-sample horizon of 1995:Q1–2006:Q4. The forecasts are evaluated by comparing them with those from an unrestricted classical Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the corresponding univariate variant of the same. Finally, the models that produce the minimum average Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs), are used to predict the downturns in the real house price growth over the recent period of 2007:Q1–2008:Q1. The results show that the BVARs, in whatever form they might be, are the best performing models in 19 of the 20 states. Moreover, these models do a fair job in predicting the downturn in 18 of the 19 states.     

An Empirical Examination of the Divergence between Managers’ and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts

We study circumstances when analysts’ forecasts diverge from managers’ forecasts after management guidance, and the consequences of this divergence for investors and analysts. Our results show that investors’ return response to earnings surprises based on analyst forecasts is significantly weaker when analyst and management forecasts diverge, and that this attenuating effect is stronger when the management forecast is more credible. When the divergent management forecast is more accurate than the analyst consensus forecast, the subsequent‐quarter analyst consensus forecast is significantly more accurate than that of the current quarter, and exhibits less serial correlation. Overall, our findings suggest that, when analyst and management forecasts diverge, investors find the two sources to contain complementary information, and analysts learn to improve their subsequent forecasts.     

Price convergence across regions in India

The paper attempts to examine whether there is price convergence across various regions in India. Using panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-sectional dependence, it is found that relative price levels among various regions in India are mean-reverting. Further, we decompose each series into a set of common factors and idiosyncratic components. The decomposition enables us to test stationarity and estimate half-lives of the common factors and the idiosyncratic components separately. Both these components are found to be stationary. Idiosyncratic price shocks, however, are found to be more persistent as compared to the common factor. Results also indicate that transportation cost proxied by distance can explain a part of the variation in prices between two locations in India. The authors would like to thank Dibyendu Bhaumik for arranging the data for this study. Views expresed in the paper are personal and do not reflect the views of the organizations.     

SOUTH–SOUTH TRADE: BEYOND GEOGRAPHY

Starting from a low base, south–south trade has picked up momentum over the last two decades. It is emerging as a new dimension of the global economy and can potentially usher in several benefits for developing economies. The emerging economies of the dynamic south (EEDS) not only provided a striking impetus to south–south trade but also contributed to the changing mise-en-scène of the global economy. However, given the moribund state of the Doha Round, additional policy measures need to be taken by the EEDS.     

Financial deregulation and efficiency: An empirical analysis of Indian banks during the post reform period

The paper investigates the performance of Indian commercial banking sector during the post reform period 1992-2002. Several efficiency estimates of individual banks are evaluated using nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Three different approaches viz., intermediation approach, value-added approach and operating approach have been employed to differentiate how efficiency scores vary with changes in inputs and outputs. The analysis links the variation in calculated efficiencies to a set of variables, i.e., bank size, ownership, capital adequacy ratio, non-performing loans and management quality. The findings suggest that medium-sized public sector banks performed reasonably well and are more likely to operate at higher levels of technical efficiency. A close relationship is observed between efficiency and soundness as determined by bank's capital adequacy ratio. The empirical results also show that technically more efficient banks are those that have, on an average, less non-performing loans. A multivariate analysis based on the Tobit model reinforces these findings.     

Is sexy better than funny? Disentangling the persuasive effects of pleasure and arousal across sex and humour appeals

Although it is well known that sex and humour can help sell products, hardly any research has examined whether there is something particular about sexual advertisements that makes them more persuasive than other appeals. The present research proposed an empirically robust way to test the persuasiveness of different emotional appeals (sex, humour, control) by matching them on pleasure and arousal levels. Two experiments (N = 162; N = 301) examined the combined persuasive effects of different levels of pleasure (moderate, high) and arousal (moderate, high) for sexual and nonsexual appeals. Study 1 used a 3 (appeal: sexual, humorous, control) × 2 (pleasure level: moderate, high) between-subjects design. Study 2 employed a 2 (appeal: sexual, control) × 2 (arousal level: moderate, high) × 2 (pleasure level: moderate, high) design. The main dependent measures were attitudes towards the ad, attitudes towards the brand, and purchase intentions. The results showed that highly pleasant ads increased persuasion regardless of arousal and content, and that sexual appeals outperformed nonsexual appeals only under conditions of moderate pleasure and high arousal.     

Convenience,Satisfaction, and Post-Purchase Behavior in India's Health Insurance Market

ABSTRACT

Understanding the antecedents and implications of “service convenience” has acquired added importance with consumers' growing desire for ease during product or service exchange. Although the effects of service convenience, as a first-order construct, on post-purchase behavior have been studied in different business contexts, not much has been done in the case of a second-order construct which has been attempted here. The present study seeks to examine the mediating role of consumers' satisfaction as well as the moderating role of organizational and consumer personal factors that have not been sufficiently explored in the marketing literature. Structural equation analysis is adopted to test the hypothesized relationships using responses from 424 consumers who have purchased health insurance from six leading insurers in India. The findings validated that the service convenience affects consumer satisfaction, which, in turn, plays both a direct and mediating role in influencing consumers' repurchase intention. However, the role of organizational and consumer personal factors as moderators between service convenience and consumers' satisfaction could only be established indirectly through post-hoc analysis, which calls for further research. The results have important implications for planning, designing, and managing the health insurance business.