The impact of cash transfers on household welfare in Namibia

Namibia has a long history of providing a universal and non-contributory old age pension, child grants using means testing and quasi-conditionalities, and other cash transfers. Multivariate analysis presented in this paper confirms that these transfers play an important role in alleviating poverty, especially for the very poor. The poverty-reducing effects of the child grants are likely to increase further as access is being rapidly expanded. However, the impact in terms of reducing Namibia's extremely high inequality is limited. The targeting of the cash transfers towards the poorest groups takes place through two main channels. For the child grant, targeting occurs as a result of the orphan status eligibility criteria, as orphans are over-represented in lower-income households. For the universal social pension, it appears that some of the relatively less poor do not receive it even if they are eligible. Means testing of child grants appears ineffective, even without considering administrative costs.     

Entrepreneurship,export orientation,and economic growth

In this paper the relationship between a country’s prevalence of new ventures and its rate of economic growth is investigated, while taking into account new ventures’ export orientation. It is generally acknowledged that new venture creation as well as export activity may both be important strategies for achieving national economic growth. However, to our knowledge no attempt has been made to investigate empirically the role of export-driven new ventures in economic growth. We focus on the national level and use data for a sample of 34 countries over the period 2002–2008. Our results suggest that, on top of a positive relation between entrepreneurial activity in general and subsequent macroeconomic growth, there is an additional positive effect of export-oriented early-stage entrepreneurship in higher-income countries. However, there is no such additional effect in lower-income countries.     

Book review

This article analyses the strategies of the agro-biotechnology industry to control and exploit plant-genetic knowledge, and the dilemmas that these strategies involve. The replicability of plants limits markets for commercial seeds, as it enables farmers to reproduce seeds themselves. The industry has therefore invented genetic-engineering techniques that will block the replicability of plants, and will effectively prevent farmers from saving their own seeds. However, this copy-protection technique— dubbed ‘Terminator’—is widely condemned in farming communities. The technology overrules intellectual property laws that exempt seed saving for private use, and it is likely to have a negative impact on medium-sized and small farming systems in developing countries. In this article it is argued that while copy protection in plants may expand seed markets, it may also seriously damage the reputation of the biotechnology industry. Corporate scientists and strategists should be more open to a public discussion about the fairness and legitimacy of seed production for private use.     

What tenure security? The case for a tripartite view

In the face of advancing urban informality in the developing world there appears to be increasing consensus that tenure security is an important engine driving settlement development. This has, however, not led to a consensus about what tenure security exactly entails. In both theory and policy, the idea of tenure security for low-income settlement dwellers is encountered in three distinct forms: tenure security as perceived by dwellers, tenure security as a legal construct and de facto tenure security. The main argument of this paper is that much controversy that surrounds the debate arises precisely as a consequence of the indiscriminate use of these different kinds of tenure security. To address this problem, a tripartite conceptualization of tenure security that incorporates its three constituent components (perception, de jure, de facto) and clarifies their interrelations is presented.     

Metaphors and the Application of a Corporate Code of Ethics

This article researches how a corporate code of ethics (CCE) implemented in local government X has influenced the behavior of its employees, middle managers, and managers. Metaphors from the existing and desired CCE elicited by these three groups provided information on how to improve the effectiveness of the CCE. This method proved to be very fruitful. It appeared that continuous systematic attention needed to be paid to the CCE after the CCE had been implemented, particularly by management. Initiatives from management to start discussions about relevant questions of integrity appeared to be also necessary to make the topic a “normal” topic which employees were no longer afraid to discuss. In this way, the possibility could be created to develop collectively a “practical” frame of reference concerning relevant questions of integrity that would help employees to make decisions in difficult situations during their work in the future.     

Economic importance and statistical significance: Guidelines for communicating empirical research

Abstract

A critical objective for many empirical studies is a thorough evaluation of both substantive importance and statistical significance. Feminist economists have critiqued neoclassical economics studies for an excessive focus on statistical machinery at the expense of substantive issues. Drawing from the ongoing debate about the rhetoric of economic inquiry and significance tests, this paper examines approaches for presenting empirical results effectively to ensure that the analysis is accurate, meaningful, and relevant for the conceptual and empirical context. To that end, it demonstrates several measurement issues that affect the interpretation of economic significance and are commonly overlooked in empirical studies. This paper provides guidelines for clearly communicating two distinct aspects of “significance” in empirical research, using prose, tables, and charts based on OLS, logit, and probit regression results. These guidelines are illustrated with samples of ineffective writing annotated to show weaknesses, followed by concrete examples and explanations of improved presentation.     

Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model

We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models in order to include macroeconomic factors. Our work benefits from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature related to the extraction of the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and the estimation of the parameters in the model. We include these factors in a dynamic factor model for the yield curve, in which we model the salient structure of the yield curve by imposing smoothness restrictions on the yield factor loadings via cubic spline functions. We carry out a likelihood-based analysis in which we jointly consider a factor model for the yield curve, a factor model for the macroeconomic series, and their dynamic interactions with the latent dynamic factors. We illustrate the methodology by forecasting the U.S. term structure of interest rates. For this empirical study, we use a monthly time series panel of unsmoothed Fama–Bliss zero yields for treasuries of different maturities between 1970 and 2009, which we combine with a macro panel of 110 series over the same sample period. We show that the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and the yield curve data has an intuitive interpretation, and that there is interdependence between the yield and macroeconomic factors. Finally, we perform an extensive out-of-sample forecasting study. Our main conclusion is that macroeconomic variables can lead to more accurate yield curve forecasts.