FT coverage and UK target price run-ups

We focus on the market expectation hypothesis to explain the increase in share prices and trading volume of target firms before their merger announcements that have conventionally been attributed to either insider trading or market expectation. We use Financial Times (FT) coverage as a proxy of merger expectation and search for relevant articles for 783 UK target firms between 1998 and 2010. We identify a total of 1049 rumour articles and find that the FT market expectation proxy explains a small percentage of the target price run-ups. Results are strong during the sample period, even though the magnitude for both returns and trading volume tends to decrease within recent years. There is also a strong contemporaneous relation between abnormal returns and trading volume. Unexplained increases in target prices and trading volume may be attributed to insider trading.     

Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility Transmission Along the Yield Curve: The Case of Kenya

This paper analyses the degree to which volatility in interbank interest rates leads to volatility in financial instruments with longer maturities (e.g. T‐bills) in Kenya since 2012, year in which the monetary policy framework switched to a forward‐looking approach, relative to seven other inflation targeting (IT) countries (Ghana, Hungary, Poland, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand and Uganda). Kenya shows strong volatility transmission and high persistence similar to other countries in transition to a more forwardlooking monetary policy framework. These results emphasize the importance of a strong commitment to an interbank rate as an operational target and suggest that the central bank could reduce uncertainty in short‐term yields significantly by smoothing out the overnight interest rates around the policy rate.     

Hybrid structures: innovative governance,judicial and sociological approaches

Quality & Quantity - The aim of this study is to examine the new trends in the hybridity research area and clarify the convergence of interests among state actors, private actors and civil...     

The physics of the city: pedestrians dynamics and crowding panic equation in Venezia

In this paper we present the physics of the city, a new approach in order to investigate the urban dynamics. In particular we focus on the citizens’ mobility observation and modeling. Being in principle the social dynamics not directly observable, our main idea is that observing the human mobility processes we can deduce some features and characteristics of social dynamics. We define the automata gas paradigm and we write a crowding equation able to predict, in a statistical sense, the threshold between a selforganized crowd and a chaotic one, which we interpret as the emergence of a possible panic scenario. We show also some specific results obtained on the Venezia pedestrian network. Firstly, analyzing the network we estimate the Venice complexity, secondly measuring the pedestrian flow on some bridges we find significant statistical correlations, and by the experimental data we design two different bridges flow profiles depending from the pedestrian populations. Furthermore considering a reduced portion of the city, i.e. Punta della Dogana, we build up a theoretical model via a Markov approach, with a stationary state solution. Finally implementing some individual characteristics of pedestrians, we simulate the flows finding a good agreement with the empirical distributions. We underline that these results can be the basis to construct an E-governance mobility system.     

Valuations and dynamics of negotiations

This paper analyzes three‐party negotiations in the presence of externalities. We obtain a closed‐form solution for the Markov perfect equilibrium of a multilateral non‐cooperative bargaining model, yielding an equilibrium value and dynamics of negotiations that are supported by experimental studies. Players’ values are monotonically increasing (or decreasing) in the amount of negative (or positive) externalities that they impose on others. Moreover, players’ values are continuous and piecewise linear on the worth of bilateral coalitions, and are inextricably related to their negotiation strategies: the equilibrium value is the Nash bargaining solution when no bilateral coalitions form; the Shapley value when all bilateral coalitions form; or the nucleolus, when either one bilateral coalition among “natural partners” or two bilateral coalitions including a “pivotal player” form.     

MACROECONOMIC LINKAGES IN MEXICO

The authors study the effects of selected macro variables on output in Mexico, following a Kaleckian framework, and using a probabilistic approach to econometrics. They find a strong positive effect of US GDP, of protection of the domestic market and of government expenditure, on Mexico's GDP, and a negative influence of higher exchange rate and credit rationing. Their results support the overall outlook proposed by the post Keynesian and the Latin American Structuralist schools of economic thought, and reject the Washington Consensus type of policies Mexico has been following during the last decades.     

Strategic complementarities and social transfers: how do PROGRESA payments impact nonbeneficiaries?

The article examines local economy effects of social transfers by focusing on food consumption and asset holdings of noneligible households in rural Mexico following the introduction of Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (PROGRESA) in 1997. The quasi experimental nature of the evaluation data collected for the purposes of evaluating the impact of PROGRESA enables comparison of welfare indicators among noneligible households in treatment areas and control areas. The analysis finds that noneligible households in treatment areas show significantly higher levels of food consumption and asset holdings following the introduction of PROGRESA, compared to noneligible households in control areas. These results are interpreted to suggest that transfers in poor rural areas in Mexico enable agents to interact more strategically such that nonbeneficiaries, as well as beneficiaries, reap consumption and production advantages.     

Deflationary shocks and monetary rules: An open-economy scenario analysis

The paper considers the macroeconomic transmission of demand and supply shocks in an open economy under alternative assumptions on whether the zero interest floor (ZIF) is binding. It uses a two-country general-equilibrium simulation model calibrated to the Japanese economy vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Negative demand shocks have more prolonged and startling effects on the economy when the ZIF is binding than when it is not binding. Positive supply shocks can actually extend the period of time over which the ZIF may be expected to bind. More open economies hit the ZIF for a shorter period of time, and with less harmful effects. Deflationary supply shocks have different implications according to whether they are concentrated in the tradables rather than the nontradables sector. Price-level-path targeting rules are likely to provide better guidelines for monetary policy in a deflationary environment, and have desirable properties in normal times when the ZIF is not binding. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 665–698.     

Dynamics of the evolution of the strategy concept 1962–2008: a co‐word analysis

The aim of this paper is to extend recent reflection on the evolution of strategic management by analyzing the field's object of study: strategy. We show how the concept of strategy has formed the backbone of the development of strategic management as an academic field and how consensus regarding it has evolved in the academic community during the stages of its historical development. We also address changes in the structure of the definition as it evolved through the growth of internal consistency, the centrality degree of the key terms that have shaped it, and how this evolution fostered the emergence of new research topics during the development of the discipline. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.