Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys

Measures of households' past behavior, their expectations with respect to future events and contingencies, and their intentions with respect to future behavior are frequently collected using household surveys. These questions are conceptually difficult. Answering them requires elaborate cognitive and social processes, and often respondents report only their “best” guesses and/or estimates, using more or less sophisticated heuristics. A large body of literature in psychology and survey research shows that as a result, responses to such questions may be severely biased. In this paper, (1) we describe some of the problems that are typically encountered, (2) provide some empirical illustrations of these biases, and (3) develop a framework for conceptualizing survey response behavior and for integrating structural models of response behavior into the statistical analysis of the underlying economic behavior.     

The Campus Parking Game: A Demonstration of Price Discrimination and Efficiency

This article presents a classroom game that allows students to directly experience the welfare improvements that can result from price discrimination. The demonstration uses a very familiar decision-making scenario, campus parking, to introduce the concept of price discrimination as well as reinforce the concepts of opportunity cost, consumer surplus, and search costs. This game can be used in a variety of classes, including principles, intermediate theory, industrial organization, or environmental economics, and can be conducted in a 50-minute class period with follow-up discussion in the next class.     

Market domain and structure in regional manufacturing instability

A decomposition of regional sectoral manufacturing employment variances is used as a basis for allocating instability to the markets in which the instability originates, including national, regional and internal. The effects of such attributes of industry structure as market power and economies of scale upon manufacturing sector instability is also investigated. Using data for Arizona over the years 1965–1985, 43% of Arizona's manufacturing instability is attributable to instability in national markets. The hypothesis that Arizona's instability can be attributed to market power differentials is rejected, but the effect of scale economy differentials is supported.     

The New Accountability? Devolution and Expenditure Politics in Scotland

Devolution is seen to be a means for enhancing democratic control and accountability in the British political system (Scottish Office, 1997). Proponents of such change have presented it as offering the prospect of a more consensual, transparent and inclusive form of governance, in effect a 'new politics', with less executive dominance than at Westminster. This would be delivered in part by proportional representation, by strengthening the role of the legislature, and by adopting a more consultative approach to decision-making (Scottish Constitutional Convention, 1995). This article focuses on expenditure politics in the budget and audit processes of the Scottish Parliament.     

Sequential and multinomial logit: A nested model

A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. During the analysis a distribution function is derived, which, to the best of our knowledge, has not been used before. This distribution is shown to be a generalization of the typeI extreme-value distribution. Monte Carlo experiments and empirical applications of the model are presented.     

Relocation Opportunities and Mortgage Default

This paper presents a theoretical model of residential mortgage default when borrowers face beneficial as well as costly relocation opportunities. It amplifies and extends previous work by providing explicit conditions leading to default. The model also establishes when a borrower's relocation decision and default decision are dependent and when they are not.
A central result is that there is a range of book equity wherein the decision to default is not determined solely by the current level of equity or the borrower's ability to continue the mortgage payments. Rather, various costs and benefits, both tangible and intangible, enter into the decision. Specific conditions are identified that lead to relocation without default, default and relocation, and no default or relocation. The effects of changes in the variables upon default probability are presented.
Assuming that the borrower does not wish to retain ownership in the property, the model also predicts whether an individual borrower will choose prepayment or default when a relocation is made. The choice depends on the value of the relocation opportunity faced by the borrower, as well as financial variables such as house value, mortgage balance, and transaction costs. This finding suggests that existing empirical analyses of default may have omitted explanatory variables.     

Comparing forecasts from fixed and variable coefficient models: The case of money demand

In this paper we introduce a class of tentatively plausible, fixed-coefficient models of money demand and evaluate their forecast performance. When these models are reestimated allowing all coefficients to vary over time, the forecasting performance improves dramatically. Aside from offering insights about improved methods of analyzing time series data, the most promising direct use for point estimates derived from time-varying coefficients is as an aid in calibrating proposed models of the kind discussed here.     

Setting people up for success: How the Portman Ritz‐Carlton hotel gets the best from its people

In China, where many multinational companies face a constant shortage of talent and high employee turnover, the Portman Ritz‐Carlton Hotel has been able to attract, develop, and retain high‐quality talent to deliver excellent customer service and ensure profitable growth. Under the leadership of Mark DeCocinis since 1998, the Portman Ritz‐Carlton has not only been named as the “Best Employer in Asia” by Hewitt Associates three consecutive times, but has also rated the highest in employee satisfaction among all of the Ritz‐Carlton's 59 hotels worldwide for five consecutive years. How can DeCocinis and his leadership team achieve such remarkable results? In his interview with Arthur Yeung, Mark DeCocinis, general manager of the Port‐man Ritz‐Carlton and regional vice president, Asia‐Pacific, of the Ritz‐Carlton Hotel Company, shares his philosophy and practices on talent management in China and elsewhere. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.