South Asia: Does Preferential Trade Liberalisation Make Sense?

This paper systematically analyses the issue of trade liberalisation in the South Asia region and offers a qualitative assessment of alternative approaches. I compare two broad approaches to trade liberalisation: non‐discriminatory and preferential. The former approach can be pursued on a unilateral basis by each country in the region, on a concerted basis by the countries in the region, or multilateral basis under the auspices of the WTO. The latter approach can take the form of criss‐crossing bilateral free trade areas between various countries in the region or a region‐wide free trade area. The view I take in the paper is that the move towards preferential trading is a mistake, at least from the viewpoint of India. India continues to have very high trade barriers so that the scope for trade diversion and the losses accompanying it are likely to be considerable. Business lobbies being relatively powerful in most of the countries in the region, they are likely to exploit the rules of origin and sectoral exceptions in these arrangements in ways that will maximise trade diversion and minimise trade creation. Inasmuch as the rules of origin give bureaucrats power, employment and opportunities to share in the rents created by tariff preferences, they too will become active parties to the diversionary tactics of business lobbies. Therefore, the member countries are better advised to proceed along non‐discriminatory lines in achieving further liberalisation.     

Gains from trade under variable returns to scale,commodity taxation,tariffs and factor market distortions

This paper examines the effect on welfare of improvements in the terms of trade and movement from autarky to free trade in the presence of variable returns to scale, production and consumption taxes, tariffs and factor market distortions. By expressing welfare in terms of a social welfare function and by considering infinitesimal changes in prices, sufficient conditions for the nonharmfulness of trade and improvements in the terms of trade are obtained which substantially weaken those obtained by Kemp and Negishi (1970).     

Bayesian Analysis of Structural Changes in a Linear Regression Model: An Application to Rupee-Dollar Exchange Rate

Journal of Quantitative Economics - The objective of this paper is to find the points of structural shift in the exchange rate model under a Bayesian framework which incorporates the possibility of...     

Is newer better? Penn World Table Revisions and their impact on growth estimates

This paper sheds light on two problems in the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP estimates. First, we show that these estimates vary substantially across different versions of the PWT despite being derived from very similar underlying data and using almost identical methodologies; that the methodology deployed to estimate growth rates leads to systematic variability, which is greater: at higher data frequencies, for smaller countries, and the farther the estimate from the benchmark year. Moreover, this variability matters for the cross-country growth literature. While growth studies that use low frequency data remain robust to data revisions, studies that use annual data are less robust. Second, the PWT methodology leads to GDP estimates that are not valued at purchasing power parity (PPP) prices. This is surprising because the raison d’être of the PWT is to adjust national estimates of GDP by valuing output at common international (purchasing power parity [PPP]) prices so that the resulting PPP-adjusted estimates of GDP are comparable across countries. We propose an approach to address these two problems of variability and valuation.     

Excessive Dollar Debt: Financial Development and Underinsurance

We propose that the limited financial development of emerging markets is a significant factor behind the large share of dollar-denominated external debt present in these markets. We show that when financial constraints affect borrowing and lending between domestic agents, agents undervalue insuring against an exchange rate depreciation. Since more of this insurance is present when external debt is denominated in domestic currency rather than in dollars, this result implies that domestic agents choose excessive dollar debt. We also show that limited financial development reduces the incentives for foreign lenders to enter emerging markets. The retarded entry reinforces the underinsurance problem.     

Currency Undervaluation and Sovereign Wealth Funds: A New Role for the World Trade Organization

Two aspects of global imbalances – undervalued exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds – require a multilateral response. For reasons of inadequate leverage and eroding legitimacy, the International Monetary Fund has not been effective in dealing with undervalued exchange rates. This paper proposes new rules in the World Trade Organization to discipline cases of significant undervaluation that are clearly attributable to government action. The rationale for WTO involvement is that there are large trade consequences of undervalued exchange rates, which act as both import tariffs and export subsidies, and that the WTO's enforcement mechanism is credible and effective. The World Trade Organization would not be involved in exchange rate management, and would not displace the International Monetary Fund. Rather, the authors suggest ways to harness the comparative advantage of the two institutions, with the International Monetary Fund providing the essential technical expertise in the World Trade Organization's enforcement process. There is a bargain to be struck between countries with sovereign wealth funds, which want secure and liberal access for their capital, and capital‐importing countries, which have concerns about the objectives and operations of sovereign wealth funds. The World Trade Organization is the natural place to strike this bargain. Its General Agreement on Trade in Services already covers investments by sovereign wealth funds, and other agreements offer a precedent for designing disciplines for these funds. Placing exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds on the trade negotiating agenda may help revive the Doha Round by rekindling the interest of a wide variety of groups.     

Why do many consumers prefer to pay now when they could pay later?

Payment timing is conceptualized as a payment characteristic useful in explaining motivations to prefer payment types. Cash, debit cards, and online banking represent consumers' preferences to pay now, while credit cards and loans represent the inclination to pay later. Based on a grounded theory study, a payment-timing model is developed to theorize consumers' choices of payment types with differences in payment timing. The model presents four motivations for payment-timing preferences: (1) the extent of rewards salience, (2) the perception of financial stress, (3) adopting heuristics for money management, and (4) the influence of perceived financial ability. Consumers choose payment-timing options that best suit their financial strategy to manage payments in pursuit of their consumption objectives.     

Agricultural Liberalisation and the Least Developed Countries: Six Fallacies

Today, agriculture remains the most distorted sector of the world economy. Therefore, agricultural liberalisation in the Doha negotiations is rightly the top priority. But the public‐policy discourse on the subject remains fogged by a number of fallacies. These fallacies probably originated with the leadership of the World Bank but have now been embraced by the IMF, OECD, Oxfam and the leading academic critics of globalisation. The paper identifies six fallacies and offers evidence and analysis to debunk them: (1) Agricultural border protection and subsidies are largely a developed‐country phenomenon. (2) Developed‐country agricultural subsidies and protection hurt the poorest developing countries most. (3) Developed‐country subsidies and protection hurt the poor, rural households in the poorest countries. (4) Developed‐country agricultural protection and subsidies constitute the principal barrier to the development of the poorest developing countries. (5) Agricultural protection reflects double standard and hypocrisy on the part of the developed countries. (6) What the donor countries give with one hand (aid), they take away with the other (farm subsidies).