Predicting direction shifts on Canadian–US exchange rates with artificial neural networks

The paper presents a variety of neural network models applied to Canadian–US exchange rate data. Networks such as backpropagation, modular, radial basis functions, linear vector quantization, fuzzy ARTMAP, and genetic reinforcement learning are examined. The purpose is to compare the performance of these networks for predicting direction (sign change) shifts in daily returns. For this classification problem, the neural nets proved superior to the naïve model, and most of the neural nets were slightly superior to the logistic model. Using multiple previous days' returns as inputs to train and test the backpropagation and logistic models resulted in no increased classification accuracy. The models were not able to detect a systematic affect of previous days' returns up to fifteen days prior to the prediction day that would increase model performance. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How Robust is the Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence

Previous literature has established a positive correlation between openness to international trade and GDP per capita growth for developed and developing economies in recent decades. However, looking at historical evidence from 1870 to the present, this paper finds no support for a positive growth-openness connection before 1970. In fact, the correlation is negative for the period 1920–1940. Cross-country growth regressions estimated for the period 1920–1990 suggest that the positive correlation between openness and growth is only a recent phenomenon. The paper provides useful conclusions regarding the robustness not only of the openness variables but also of other growth determinants.     

Myopia and Addictive Behaviour

We present a theory of addictive behaviour which can account for addicts' apparent disregard for the future consequences of their current actions. The discounting of future utility is increasing in past consumption, indicating increasingly myopic behaviour as consumption increases. The intertemporal complementarity generated by the endogenous discounting produces multiple steady states which can account for the simultaneous existence of myopic addicts and non-myopic non-addicts within a time consiste nt expected utility framework. The theory also accounts for the probabilistic incidence of addiction and successful rehabilitation and the possibility of recurrence.     

Real effective exchange rate and the constant elasticity of substitution assumption

The real effective exchange rate (REER) is an aggregation of several bilateral real exchange rates assuming constant elasticity of substitution (CES) between goods from different countries. We investigate the validity of the CES assumption by estimating manufacturing export equations for 56 countries over 26 years. Under the CES assumption, splitting the REER into two components should not increase the fit in an export equation and the coefficients on the two REERs should be equal. We reject both these implications and find that the export equations with two REERs—vs. OECD and vs. nonOECD countries—perform better than the traditional ones.     

Investigating the Types of Value and Cost of Green Brands: Proposition of a Conceptual Framework

This conceptual article applies the customer value (CV) concept in the context of green marketing aiming to provide insights on the factors that motivate and/or hinder the development of consumer–green brand relationships. The article draws upon existing literature on the streams of CV, relationship marketing and environmental behaviour and synthesises relevant findings to propose an integrated conceptual framework entailing all identified types of value and cost, psychographic characteristics, as well as dimensions of relationship quality (RQ) and loyalty. Furthermore, it addresses existing questions on the links among constructs and proposes several relationships that may lead to a better understanding of consumer behaviour towards green brands. Through the here-proposed conceptual model, the article initiates the process of empirically examining the consumer adoption of and relationship development with green brands. The CV framework adopted here may provide practitioners with knowledge on the value and sacrifice factors, as well as the dimensions of RQ that are the most important in targeting green consumers and designing relationship marketing strategies. The article also fulfils an identified gap in the literature, as it is the first that brings together and applies research findings from CV and relationship marketing fields in the green marketing context and proposes an integrated approach to understanding consumer–green brands relationships.     

The usefulness of Schwartz's ‘Values Theory’ in understanding consumer behaviour towards differentiated products

Abstract

The Values Theory adopts a generic framework whereby a set of values is employed across consumer decision-making contexts in a manner that makes no distinction among various product categories. The present study advances this theory by exhibiting the adaptation capability of the generic values instrument (the Portrait Value Questionnaire, PVQ), demonstrating that tailor-made PVQ versions can reflect consumers' motives towards differentiated products (i.e. organic foods). A questionnaire was completed by approximately 1000 households in each of eight EU countries (N?=?8171). The organic food-relevant PVQ was developed through a preliminary qualitative phase (i.e. a means-end chain analysis), and its factorial design was validated through CFA, showing high statistical performance. PVQ-based European clusters with strong self-transcendence values comprised large numbers of organic purchasers. Moreover, results point to the fact that when a circumplex taxonomy, such as the PVQ, is applied in a real context (i.e. organic food purchases), the situation-relevant value domains merge into new hierarchical dimensions in absolute respect of the original taxonomy. This conclusion points to PVQ's robustness in adaptability to different situations of human value perspective.     

Green Consumption Behavior Antecedents: Environmental Concern,Knowledge, and Beliefs

The present study adds to the evolving literature on green consumer behavior by examining through statistically robust methods the effect and interrelationships of the key constructs of environmental concern, consumer environmental knowledge, beliefs about biofuels, and behavioral intention (i.e., willingness to use and pay) in the context of biofuels. Data were collected through a survey of 1695 respondents. Hypotheses are based on a literature review and a pilot study, and the conceptual structural model developed is tested through structural equation modeling. Results show that concern for the environment has a positive and direct impact on environmental knowledge, beliefs, and behavioral intention. Also, demographics determine levels of concern for the environment and environmental knowledge. All constructs associate positively with one another delineating that the interdependencies between them are important when accounting for environmental behavior. Future research should validate present results with the use of cross‐cultural samples and investigate whether environmental concern increases due to social desirability response bias.     

Monetary policy and asset prices

The purpose of this paper is study the effect of monetary policy on asset prices. We study the properties of a monetary model in which a real asset is valued for its rate of return and for its liquidity. We show that money is essential if and only if real assets are scarce, in the precise sense that their supply is not sufficient to satisfy the demand for liquidity. Our model generates a clear connection between asset prices and monetary policy. When money grows at a higher rate, inflation is higher and the return on money decreases. In equilibrium, no arbitrage amounts to equating the real return of both objects. Therefore, the price of the asset increases in order to lower its real return. This negative relationship between inflation and asset returns is in the spirit of research in finance initiated in the early 1980s.