Volatility Forecasting and Time‐varying Variance Risk Premiums in Grains Commodity Markets

In this paper we examine empirically the predictive power of model‐free option‐implied variance and skewness in wheat, maize and soybeans derivative markets. We find that option‐implied risk‐neutral variance outperforms historical variance as a predictor of future realised variance for these three commodities. In addition, we find that risk‐neutral option‐implied skewness significantly improves variance forecasting when added in the information variable set. Variance risk premia add significant predictive power when included as an additional factor for predicting future commodity returns.     

Asymmetric information in cattle auctions: the problem of revaccinations

We analyze the problem of asymmetric information between buyers and sellers in cattle auctions, using the problem of revaccinations as the point of departure. We present a simple model to show that if buyers do not know and cannot verify whether sellers have vaccinated their animals, then they may consider revaccination. Revaccination is only a part of the broader problem of information asymmetry that includes other quality issues and costs that can be saved, thereby affecting the welfare of both buyers and sellers. We consider structural characteristics of ranching, traditions, and consumers' preferences as well as proposals regarding third‐party certification to argue that the problem of asymmetric information in cattle auctions is a persistent one. We also argue for a comprehensive empirical study of the incidence and impacts of buyer revaccination.     

Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge

We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the central bank possess imperfect knowledge about the true structure of the economy. Policymakers follow an interest rate rule aiming to maintain price stability and to minimize fluctuations of unemployment around its natural rate but are uncertain about the economy's natural rates of interest and unemployment and how private agents form expectations. In particular, we consider two models of expectations formation: rational expectations (RE) and learning. We show that in this environment the ability to stabilize the real side of the economy is significantly reduced relative to an economy under RE with perfect knowledge. Furthermore, policies that would be optimal under perfect knowledge can perform very poorly if knowledge is imperfect. Efficient policies that take account of private learning and misperceptions of natural rates call for greater policy inertia, a more aggressive response to inflation, and a smaller response to the perceived unemployment gap than would be optimal if everyone had perfect knowledge of the economy. We show that such policies are quite robust to potential misspecification of private sector learning and the magnitude of variation in natural rates.     

An investigation of innovation antecedents in small firms in the context of a small developing country

The present research was conducted in Cyprus, a small developing country. A large number (n=140) of manufacturing small and medium sized firms were surveyed, via a questionnaire administered during personal interviews with the firms' owners or managers. A research model based on the antecedent factor approach was used. The main variables affecting innovation according to the survey results include: strategy, expenditure on R&D, co‐operation with external technology providers, use of technological information sources and overall performance of the firm. Contrary to expectations and literature claims, some environmental variables, e.g. intensity of competition, were not correlated to innovation. Managers and public policy makers in similar contexts can increase the innovativeness of firms by paying attention to its main determinants, as identified by the above research.     

Chi-square Distribution as a Research Tool,and Some of Its Most Important Parametric and Non-parametric Applications

When researchers are testing the validity of claims during their research, they may use either parametric methods （if they exist） or non-parametric methods if appropriate parametric methods do not exist. The Chi-square （x2） distribution plays an important role in both parametric and non-parametric methods and many of its most important applications are explored in this paper. This paper provides an excellent summation of the properties and capabilities of the very versatile x2 distribution, and many specific applications and suggestions for additional future applications.     

GARCH modelling of banking integration in the Eurozone

We investigate the progress of integration in the European banking industry and its effects on the price of the common stock of banks listed on European stock exchanges. We estimate the overall effect of progress by comparing the changes in the stock price volatility of listed banks over the period from January 1990 to December 2005. Using univariate and bivariate GARCH models, we document that the introduction of the Euro and the enlargement of the European Union in May 2004 have contributed to the integration process of the banking industry in Europe. We also find evidence of negative volatility spillovers among bank stock returns for different groups of countries that have been involved in various recent stages of the European economic and political integration.     

What causes exchange rate volatility? Evidence from selected EMU members and candidates for EMU membership countries

We allow for monetary, real, and financial variables to assess the relevant importance of each of the variables to exchange rate volatility in the case of selected EMU members and candidate countries. Ex-ante analysis shows that volatility in the Polish zloty/euro and the Hungarian forint/euro forex markets can be influenced by the monetary-side of the economy. On the other hand, ex-post analysis shows that forex markets in France, Italy and Spain had been influenced, during the pre-EMU era, by monetary and real shocks. However, the Irish pound exchange rate per ECU had been affected by only real shocks.     

Dancing Spreads: Market Assessment of Contagion from the Crisis in the Euro Periphery based on Distress Dependence Analysis

The crisis in the eurozone periphery has so far affected markets substantially more than the size of the countries in the region would suggest. Data on direct exposures and simple correlations also fail to explain the cross-border impact of the crisis. Following Segoviano (2006), this paper uses distress dependence analysis to measure market assessment of contagion risks from Greece and Ireland to the rest of Europe during the peaks of the crises in these countries. The results provide insights to possible contagion risks through cross-border negative feedback loops between sovereigns and banking sectors in Europe that help explain the severe impact of the crisis.     

The impact of corporate governance,regulatory differences and futures contracts on movements among portfolios of cross-listed equities: The case of Germany

We test the impact of corporate governance effects on the stock price volatility of the DAX100 and find that these variables increase the volatility and decrease the error terms statistically significant. In addition, controlling for contemporaneous and next period's movements, we find that shocks can have a significant impact on the magnitude of stock return co-movements. In particular, our results show that the impact of the German mark/Euro and German bond price index futures shocks have a significant effect on spillovers, on contemporaneous and next period's co-movements related to firms or equities that cross-list on markets with different creditor bankruptcy protection rules. On the other hand, the impact of the German mark/Euro and the German stock price index shocks related to different shareholder protection rules have a smaller impact on both the next period's co-movements and contemporaneous co-movements among or between markets.