Agricultural decline and sustainable development on mountain areas in Greece: Sustainability assessment of future scenarios

Agricultural decline may pose an important threat to mountain biodiversity but it also constitutes a driving force of socio-economic transformation. The aim of this study is to investigate the implications of alternative agricultural policy scenarios on the sustainable development of Greek mountain areas using a case study approach (Zagori region, Greece). Two agricultural policy scenarios were explored and assessed against a list of sustainability objectives. Causal relationships among drivers of changes and sustainability objectives were explored using Network Analysis. Our analysis has shown that agricultural liberalisation is expected to have devastating effects on the development of the area and it was strongly opposed as an alternative future by the local stakeholders. The analysis of the driver's causal relationship has also revealed that in order to ensure the sustainable development of the area it is necessary to sustain low input extensive farming, to promote mild tourism development and to enhance the operational efficiency of the National Park. Moreover, in order to reconcile agricultural decline, biodiversity and sustainable development, policy-management recommendations must be drawn at multiple administrative levels and complementary policy interventions within and between levels are required. It is thus, important that EU agricultural policies are complemented by national-regional interventions in order to regulate the fragile balance between agriculture and tourism. Finally, this study has shown that the combination of scenario analysis and sustainability assessment can provide an efficient tool to inform management strategies for sustainable development.     

Dynamic relations of uncertainty expectations: a conditional assessment of implied volatility indices

This study examines the spillover effects in international financial markets with respect to implied volatility indices. The use of the latter as the basis of integration analysis means that we test market participants’ expectations and not the actual price fluctuations. The empirical analysis, which includes all publicly available implied volatility indices, employs the dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) and its findings suggest that there is significant integration of investors’ expectations about future uncertainty. Furthermore, by accounting for the dynamic volatility of implied volatility inter-dependencies, we are able to reveal possible shifts in conditional correlations of market expectations over time. More specifically, our findings show a slight increase in the conditional correlations for all the volatility indices under review over the years and prove that in periods of turbulence in the financial markets the conditional correlations across implied volatility indices increase.     

Convergence of shocks and trade in the enlarged European Union

This paper explores the relation between trade flows and cross-country symmetry of supply and demand shocks using data from the EU-27 countries. Increased bilateral trade intensity is found to have a positive impact on the correlation of both demand and supply shocks. Intra-industry trade is found to be positively linked to correlations of supply-side shocks but negatively linked to correlations of demand shocks. Our results thus provide support for the argument that aggregate demand spillovers and intra-industry trade, rather than specialization, dominate in the process through which trade flows affect the cross-country transmission of shocks in Europe. At the same time, our estimates suggest that monetary-policy convergence in Europe (the circulation of the euro), while having increased symmetry of supply-side shocks, has had no direct favourable impact on symmetry of demand shocks. By contrast, the process of fiscal-policy convergence is found to have resulted in more correlated demand shocks across the EU member states.     

‘Information communication technology’ innovation in a non-high technology sector: achieving competitive advantage in the shipping industry

The global marketplace is resulting in an ever-increasing networked and digitalised landscape where organisations compete as integrated supply chains. This paper explores the impact that the digital networked environment has on the traditional shipping services industry. The research contribution has four aspects: (1) most research efforts focus on high technology sectors; this research emphasises the need for information communication technology (ICT) adoption in a non-high technology sector; (2) the research highlights the importance of ICT in achieving competitive advantage in the complex environment of shipping; (3) complexity principles are applied to the discussion on ICT; and (4) the link between ICT and the development of dynamic capabilities is created.     

An investigation of innovation antecedents in small firms in the context of a small developing country

The present research was conducted in Cyprus, a small developing country. A large number (n=140) of manufacturing small and medium sized firms were surveyed, via a questionnaire administered during personal interviews with the firms' owners or managers. A research model based on the antecedent factor approach was used. The main variables affecting innovation according to the survey results include: strategy, expenditure on R&D, co‐operation with external technology providers, use of technological information sources and overall performance of the firm. Contrary to expectations and literature claims, some environmental variables, e.g. intensity of competition, were not correlated to innovation. Managers and public policy makers in similar contexts can increase the innovativeness of firms by paying attention to its main determinants, as identified by the above research.     

Unconventional monetary policy announcements and risk aversion: evidence from the U.S. and European equity markets

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the role of unconventional monetary policy announcements on risk aversion – as proxied by the variance premium – by using panel data analysis. The objective of this empirical analysis is to investigate the risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the major European and U.S. equity markets by studying the impact that the announcements of an unconventional monetary policy has on market uncertainty and risk perception. By measuring the difference between risk-neutral and realised and conditional variance, we estimate the variance premium, which captures the impact that pricing concerns have on the prices of options. The empirical analysis indicates that easing monetary policies can significantly reduce the variance premium. In addition, we examine the risk premium structure across markets to determine the potential differences in investors’ risk aversion.     

Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?

This paper investigates the widely held view that expansionary fiscal policy can boost consumer and business confidence, which will stimulate private spending and sustain economic activity. We find evidence in favor of this conjecture, i.e., cuts in direct taxes generate a positive effect on consumer and business confidence, while the same applies in cases of higher non-wage government consumption. However, higher government wage bills and government investment reduce confidence, with the effect being more pronounced when the Debt to GDP ratio is high, possibly because they entail a permanent increase in the size of the public sector, which would have to be financed by higher future taxes.     

Holistic investment assessment: optimization,risk appraisal and decision making

On deciding for the most appropriate investment when capital restrictions exist, investors define their alternatives and analyze each one of them. Traditionally, the definition, appraisal and analysis stages are treated separately. Herein, an innovative holistic method is proposed for bridging these stages. Within this method, investment attributes definition occurs by genetic algorithm optimization, while the analysis of the investment is realized through simulation. The method also proposes the NPV Expected Shortfall and the NPV Risk Preference Index as investment evaluation criteria. An illustrative case study of two mutually exclusive renewable energy investment scenarios is also used for demonstration purposes. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.