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61.
Volatility Forecasting and Time‐varying Variance Risk Premiums in Grains Commodity Markets 下载免费PDF全文
Athanasios Triantafyllou George Dotsis Alexandros H. Sarris 《Journal of Agricultural Economics》2015,66(2):329-357
In this paper we examine empirically the predictive power of model‐free option‐implied variance and skewness in wheat, maize and soybeans derivative markets. We find that option‐implied risk‐neutral variance outperforms historical variance as a predictor of future realised variance for these three commodities. In addition, we find that risk‐neutral option‐implied skewness significantly improves variance forecasting when added in the information variable set. Variance risk premia add significant predictive power when included as an additional factor for predicting future commodity returns. 相似文献
62.
Athanasios G. Chymis Harvey S. James Jr . Srinivasa Konduru Vern L. Pierce Robert L. Larson 《Agricultural Economics》2007,36(1):79-88
We analyze the problem of asymmetric information between buyers and sellers in cattle auctions, using the problem of revaccinations as the point of departure. We present a simple model to show that if buyers do not know and cannot verify whether sellers have vaccinated their animals, then they may consider revaccination. Revaccination is only a part of the broader problem of information asymmetry that includes other quality issues and costs that can be saved, thereby affecting the welfare of both buyers and sellers. We consider structural characteristics of ranching, traditions, and consumers' preferences as well as proposals regarding third‐party certification to argue that the problem of asymmetric information in cattle auctions is a persistent one. We also argue for a comprehensive empirical study of the incidence and impacts of buyer revaccination. 相似文献
63.
David Hillier Patrick McColgan Athanasios Tsekeris 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2020,47(1-2):132-162
This paper examines the relation between executive compensation and value creation in merger waves. The sensitivity of CEO wealth to firm risk increases the likelihood of out-of-wave merger transactions but has no influence on in-wave merger frequency. CEOs with compensation linked to firm risk have better out-of-wave merger performance in comparison to in-wave mergers. We also present evidence that cross-sectional acquirer return dispersion is greater for in-wave acquisitions. Our results suggest that the underperformance of acquiring firms during merger waves can be attributed in part to ineffective compensation incentives, and appropriate managerial incentives can create value, particularly in non-wave periods. 相似文献
64.
Athanasios Koulakiotis Katerina Lyroudi Nicholas Papasyriopoulos 《International Advances in Economic Research》2012,18(1):53-62
This study investigates, through panel univariate GARCH models for 14 European countries the causality between inflation and
GDP and finds that inflation causes GDP at the 5% level of significance and GDP cause inflation at the 10% significance level.
Thus, there is a bidirectional effect between the above two cases which is significant at the 10% level. 相似文献
65.
Athanasios Orphanides 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2007,54(5):1406-1435
We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the central bank possess imperfect knowledge about the true structure of the economy. Policymakers follow an interest rate rule aiming to maintain price stability and to minimize fluctuations of unemployment around its natural rate but are uncertain about the economy's natural rates of interest and unemployment and how private agents form expectations. In particular, we consider two models of expectations formation: rational expectations (RE) and learning. We show that in this environment the ability to stabilize the real side of the economy is significantly reduced relative to an economy under RE with perfect knowledge. Furthermore, policies that would be optimal under perfect knowledge can perform very poorly if knowledge is imperfect. Efficient policies that take account of private learning and misperceptions of natural rates call for greater policy inertia, a more aggressive response to inflation, and a smaller response to the perceived unemployment gap than would be optimal if everyone had perfect knowledge of the economy. We show that such policies are quite robust to potential misspecification of private sector learning and the magnitude of variation in natural rates. 相似文献
66.
Hirbod Assa Meng Wang Athanasios A. Pantelous 《North American actuarial journal : NAAJ》2018,22(1):137-159
The main objective of this article is to model the losses caused by frost events and use it to price frost insurance. Since the data on frost events are either unavailable or rarely available, we have chosen to obtain a model for frost losses based on temperature by using some fundamental agricultural engineering findings on frost damage. The main challenges in modeling frost loss variables are, first, the nonlinearity of the frost losses with respect to the temperature and, second, the fruit resistance to the first few hours of low temperature. We address both issues when introducing our frost loss variable. Then after finding the loss model, we use it to price frost insurance for a general family of insurance contracts that do not generate any risk of moral hazard. In particular, we will find the premiums of stop-loss policies for losses to citrus fruits using Value at Risk, Conditional Value at Risk, and Wang's premium based on temperature data from San Joaquin Drainage in California. 相似文献
67.
The present paper analyses the forecastability and tradability of volatility on the large S&P500 index and the liquid SPY ETF, VIX index and VXX ETN. Even though there is already a huge array of literature on forecasting high frequency volatility, most publications only evaluate the forecast in terms of statistical errors. In practice, this kind of analysis is only a minor indication of the actual economic significance of the forecast that has been developed. For this reason, in our approach, we also include a test of our forecast through trading an appropriate volatility derivative. As a method we use parametric and artificial intelligence models. We also combine these models in order to achieve a hybrid forecast. We report that the results of all three model types are of similar quality. However, we observe that artificial intelligence models are able to achieve these results with a shorter input time frame and the errors are uniformly lower comparing with the parametric one. Similarly, the chosen models do not appear to differ much while the analysis of trading efficiency is performed. Finally, we notice that Sharpe ratios tend to improve for longer forecast horizons. 相似文献
68.
Open Economies Review - This paper employs a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model to investigate the relationship among financial stress, inflation and growth in 19 advanced economies over the... 相似文献
69.
Abstract The paper explores the market-oriented behaviour and performance consequences for firms operating in a market characterised by national heterogeneity. Through a case-study design, a posteriori propositions based on interview data from six multinational firms operating in a polyethnic market are developed. Findings indicate a positive relationship between the need for responsiveness and a market's polyethnicity with firms customising elements of their product strategy to ethnic segments or European consumers at large. Moreover, findings indicate that market-oriented firms that customise their product strategies to the cultural idiosyncrasies of the Greek market enjoy the highest market share among foreign consumers. As a result, the paper opens up a discussion on the performance implications of adopting a market-oriented approach in polyethnic markets, which are, increasingly, a feature of our globalised world. 相似文献
70.
Athanasios Geromichalos 《International Economic Review》2014,55(4):1043-1065
I study a directed search model of oligopolistic competition, extended to incorporate general capacity constraints, congestion effects, and pricing based on ex post demand. In the presence of any one of these ingredients, the Bertrand paradox fails to hold. Hence, despite the emphasis that has been placed by the literature on sellers' capacity constraints as a resolution to the paradox, the existence of such constraints is only a subcase of a general class of environments where the paradox fails. Specifically, Bertrand's paradox will not arise whenever the buyers' expected utility from visiting a seller is decreasing in that seller's realized demand. 相似文献