Domestic and international economic changes. Embarrassing correspondences

The breakdown of the socialist regimes of the east European countries has been incredibly fast. The subsequent changes in the international setting may imply much slower processes. Unified Germany is building up a vast area of influence ranging from the Baltic to the Adriatic sea. The former Moslem republics of the Soviet Union may fall instead under the influence of Turkey, supported by the USA. The presence of the USA in the Middle East and the American influence over Israel, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Iran, might help to build up a huge Moslem area controlled by the USA. This implies questioning the pre-existing national borderlines, a problem in which ethnic conflicts seem to be playing a role. The three great economic areas of the world exhibit a common tendency to become three strongly protected commercial areas. In the domestic structures of the main capitalist countries very similar changes are taking place: a general fall in the ideals of social justice, replaced by the ideology of individual effort and efficiency; a decline in the belief that any individual should be protected from the cradle to the grave, a belief replaced by the ideal of a scoiety made up of self-made men; a decline in the supply of schooling services, health care, old-age pensions and collective action in general, in favour of individual initiative and privatization. A consequence of such changes will be a sharp increase in personal and regional inequalities.     

Combining equilibrium,resampling, and analyst’s views in portfolio optimization

This paper proposes the use of a portfolio optimization methodology which combines features of equilibrium models and investor’s views as in Black and Litterman (1992), and also deals with estimation risk as in Michaud (1998). In this way, our combined methodology is able to meet the needs of practitioners for stable and diversified portfolio allocations, while it is theoretically grounded on an equilibrium framework. We empirically test the methodology using a comprehensive sample of developed countries fixed income and equity indices, as well as sub-samples stratified by geographical region, time period, asset class and risk level. In general, our proposed combined methodology generates very competitive portfolios when compared to other methodologies, considering three evaluation dimensions: financial efficiency, diversification, and allocation stability. By generating financially efficient, stable, and diversified portfolio allocations, our methodology is suitable for long-term investors such as Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds.     

The income elasticity gap and its implications for economic growth and tourism development: the Balearic vs the Canary Islands

ABSTRACT

The Balearic and the Canary Islands are two well-known tourism-led economies. They both experienced a tourism boom during the same decades, and, hence, they developed a similar productive-mix. Nevertheless, there are strong economic differences between the two regions. While the Balearic Islands enjoy a high GDP per capita, the Canary Islands show a more modest performance. The results of a panel data regression confirm our hypothesis that they differ substantially in terms of income elasticity of tourism. It is two times higher in the Balearic Islands than in the Canaries, which indicates the first is perceived as a more luxurious destination. Furthermore, the results of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model show that the Canaries would converge in GDP per capita with the Balearic Islands if they attracted tourists with a similar profile as the latter.     

Coberturas financieras con derivados y su incidencia en el valor de mercado en empresas colombianas que cotizan en Bolsa

The financial theory (Modigliani & Miller, 1958) rises that risk management was not an issue for companies because shareholders could make their own hedging management through portfolio diversification; however, further studies conflict with that statement and show that corporate financial hedging improves performance and increases the value thereof (Ahmed, Azevedo, & Guney, 2014; Allayannis & Weston, 2001; Allayannis & Ofek, 1998). Efficient management of market risks, which is based on the use of financial derivatives, demands strategic and efficient managers in hedging that adds value to the firm, especially in against shocks and imbalances from a macroeconomic and financial nature. Empirical evidence analyzes the performance of the Q-Tobin as an indicator of the effect of hedging strategies of exchange rate associated to the market value. This paper aims to find evidence in Colombia on the effect of using derivatives in the market value of the firm. Its added value lies in the analysis made by economic sectors, identified by CIIU codes and grouped into 5 sectors (Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial or Manufacturing, Services and Construction). The methodology includes several models estimating regression panel data, using a Pooled regression with estimators of fixed and random effects by maximum likelihood estimator. In general, it was found a premium due to hedging, statistically and financially significant, for companies exposed to exchange rate risks that use derivatives by an average of 6.3% on the market value. Moreover, mixed results were found regarding the analyzed variables in the model.     

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Paraná (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.      

Store and store format loyalty measures based on budget allocation

In highly competitive environments, such as retail markets, characterized by a growing heterogeneity of demand and the proliferation of new retail formats, cross-shopping behavior between stores and formats is becoming increasingly common. This process makes customer loyalty a key strategic challenge for retailers that want to consolidate their position within the market. To contribute to the analysis and comprehension of this reality, the authors propose and assess different objective indicators of store loyalty, store format loyalty, and intra-format store loyalty based on budget allocation. Specifically, they analyze the role of retail format in observable loyalty patterns in a market. Through an empirical analysis of grocery purchase patterns of a sample of 580 Spanish households, the authors find that diverse objective loyalty indicators based on budget allocations provide very similar information from a practical point of view. They also find that consumers' regular use of various formats (specifically, supermarkets, hypermarkets, and discount stores) for their purchases explain observed disloyalty better than does purchasing in several stores within these formats. The observed patterns reveal that retail formats define differentiated store profiles that relate to the benefits sought in different purchase situations.     

Public Debt,Economic Growth and Inflation in African Economies

We analyse the relationship between public debt, economic growth and inflation in a group of 52 African economies between 1950 and 2012. The results indicate that the limits of public debt are negatively related to economic growth and exhibit, from a given level of debt, an inverted U behaviour regarding the relationship between economic growth and public debt. Briefly, the high levels of public debt are coincident with reduced rates of economic growth and rising levels of inflation. Our results for three specific geographical areas resemble those of the overall analysis, despite some differences. In North African countries, the growth rates of the gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation also show an inverted U behaviour as the ratio of public debt/GDP increases. The highest rate of economic growth is recorded when the ratio of public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP and corresponds to an average inflation rate of 5.33%. An identical behaviour of the GDP growth rates and inflation also appears in Sub‐Saharan countries until the third interval (60–90%). However, the highest growth rate of the GDP and GDP per capita is registered when the public debt/GDP ratio is in the second interval (30–60%). For the countries of the Southern Africa Development Community, the highest average rate of economic growth (6.8%) is similar to North African countries, when the ratio public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP, with an average inflation rate of 11%. A number of robustness analyses were performed and the great majority of them confirm the general analysis.     

The experience of technological collaborations by MERCOSUR companies

This paper examines some of the experiences in information and knowledge sharing involving MERCOSUR firm. It finds that while technological collaborations by MERCOSUR firms are relatively few, located in low-tech sectors and taking place in an environment of little innovation, they are motivated by the need to 'fuse' their own knowledge with that of partner or to improve available information. Modes of governance vary accordingly, with equity or contractual forms being used for new developments and informal agreements for improvements. Govmments and business associations can be important facilitators of technological collaborations. The analysis of technological collaborations suggested that the better prepared a corporation entered an agreement the more successful it was likely to be. It also pointed out that where interactions were intense, well intended and transparent, included personnel exchanges, were properly assessed and involved receptive participants, learning progressed smoothly and partners were satisfied. Benefits of the collaborations included new patentable and non-patentable products new factories, as well as building trust between partners. Premature termination of some collaborations was the result of financia1 limitations unrelated to the success of the collaboration.