我国铁路客运动车组检修制度的研究

随着铁路客运专线的建设,动车组的检修工作对保障运输安全和客运专线效能有重要作用。为此建议我国客运专线动车组“以可靠性为中心”作为检修指导思想,并结合我国机车车辆制造和检修水平及传统习惯,对检修制度、检修等级、各级别的检修内容及检修顺序进行了分析设计。     

检验检疫工作管理模式的研究

检验检疫工作的质量问题事关检验检疫事业发展的大局,要想提高工作质量,必须要对现有的工作管理模式进行研究、完善。随着市场经济的发展以及中国与其他国家的贸易往来的增多,检验检疫工作对象呈现高科技化、多样化等特点,这为现行检验检疫工作模式带来了较大的挑战。针对目前中国检验检疫工作遇到的新挑战,结合对检验检疫工作中存在的问题的分析与中国检验检疫的特点,给出完善检验检疫工作管理模式的方法建议。     

The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States

We estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use a factor-augmented interacted vector autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us to capture the time-varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state, to account for the state of the business cycle and to address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification, we find that government spending multipliers in a recession range from 3.56 to 3.79 at the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers in recessions range from 2.31 to 3.05. Several robustness analyses confirm that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower and that multipliers in recessions exceed multipliers in expansions. Our results are consistent with theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB.     

镇江市现代服务业发展现状分析及对策研究

现代服务业发展程度是衡量一个地区国际竞争力和产业发展水平的重要指标。本文在分析了镇江市服务业发展现状和存在的问题基础上,指出镇江市要根据国际服务领域合作深化发展的新趋势,把握国家政策导向,同时结合自身良好资源禀赋,科学规划,分类指导,集中布局,集聚发展,增强重点行业支撑作用,大力培育新兴服务业,全面提升传统服务业。努力构建与一、二产业相支撑,与城市化进程相协调,与市民需求相适应的,布局合理、功能完备、相互连接的镇江现代服务业新体系。     

基于CGE模型的资源税改革对能源行业的影响研究——以煤炭行业为例

资源的过度使用导致经济发展不可持续和环境的恶化,税收具有较好的调节作用, 年内进行资源税改革已经列入计划日程。 由于煤炭在我国能源消耗中所占比例超过70%, 资源税改革会对煤炭需求和价格等产生影响。 基于 CGE 模型, 分析了不同资源税税率情境下我国煤炭需求和煤炭价格的变化趋势。 研究结果发现需求短期内会继续上升, 长期由于产业结构变化将会下降, 在价格上短期内将上升, 长期将下降。 因此, 应该早日推出资源税改革, 提高资源税税率, 清理煤炭企业不合理的负担等。     

Stock market development under globalization: Whither the gains from reforms?

Over the past decades, many countries have implemented significant reforms (including financial liberalization, privatization, and regulatory and supervisory improvements) to foster domestic capital market development. Despite these policies, the performance of capital markets in several countries has been disappointing. To understand the effects of reforms, we study the impact of six capital market reforms on domestic stock market development and internationalization. We find that reforms tend to be followed by increases in domestic market capitalization and trading. But reforms are also followed by an increase in the share of activity in international equity markets, with potential negative spillover effects.     

PPP如何影响地方财政风险——来自债券市场反应的证据

政府与社会资本合作(PPP)的倡导者认为PPP能够为地方政府分担财政压力,分散投资风险,提高资源配置效率;其反对者则认为PPP背后隐藏着政府的隐性担保和补贴、腐败和寻租,预算内的财政压力减小只是一种财政幻觉,反倒无形中累积了系统性风险。本文利用中国2015—2020年间的债券发行数据以及PPP在各地的落地信息,以地方政府债券为实验组,以国债和金融债为控制组,构建双重差分模型,检验PPP集中落地是否增加了地方财政风险,进而抬升了地方政府债券的发行成本。实证结果表明,2016—2017年左右的PPP集中落地使得地方政府债券发行受到来自市场的利率惩罚,5年期地方债发行利率的风险溢价为6.7个基点～29.7个基点,10年期地方债发行利率的风险溢价为21个基点～41个基点,且这种效应在PPP项目较多和较少的地区之间存在异质性。更换控制组、推后PPP项目对地方财政的实际冲击时间、假设虚假的实验组等一系列稳健性检验证明这一发现具有可信性。此外,本文还讨论了这一实证结果背后的可能原因,并提出促进PPP良性发展的措施。     

Quantificational Study on Carrying Capacity of the Regional Environment -Taking the City of Dalian as an Example

With the analysis of the connotation and charter of the regional environment＇s carrying capacity, this paper, firstly, establishes the index system on the base of the affecting factors. Secondly, this paper discusses the methods of the quantization of the environment＇s carrying capacity of Dalian. Finaly; this paper predicts the changing tendency of the environment＇s carrying capacity.     

地理分散化与企业社会责任

随着中国经济转向高质量发展阶段,上市公司作为市场经济中的重要主体,深化履行社会责任既是时代的需求,更是自身发展的需要.本文以2013-2018年中国A股制造业上市公司的地理分布数据以及企业社会责任履行的年度样本为实证基础,分析了我国上市公司的母子公司地理位置的分散化特征对企业社会责任履行的影响关系.研究发现,企业地理分散化程度与股东、员工和其它利益相关者权益责任呈倒U形曲线趋势.研究表明,企业适度的地理分散化有助于企业提升社会责任表现,而过度分散则会降低企业社会责任表现.进一步研究还发现,企业的产权性质和企业地理分散化形成的异质性市场化环境,会对企业的环境责任和社会公益责任履行形成影响.本文以上市公司六年的信息数据为研究样本,分析了地理分散化对中国企业社会责任履行的影响表现和内在机理,丰富了企业社会责任的相关理论,还为政府和市场各方洞悉企业在地理分散化条件下的社会责任履行状况提供了实证依据.     

Selection in asset markets: the good, the bad, and the unknown

In this paper, we use a series of simple examples to illustrate how wealth-driven selection works in a market for Arrow securities. Our analysis delivers both a good and a bad message. The good message is that, when traders invest constant fractions of their wealth in each asset and have equal consumption rates, markets are informationally efficient: the best informed agent is rewarded and asset prices eventually reflect this information. However, and this is the bad message, when asset demands are not constant fractions of wealth but dependent upon prices, markets might behave sub-optimally. In this case, asymptotic prices depend on preferences and beliefs of the whole ecology of traders and do not, in general, reflect the best available information. We show that the key difference between the two cases lies in the local, i.e. price dependent, versus global nature of wealth-driven selection.