Constant market shares analysis: uses,limitations and prospects*

In this paper, we generalise the constant market shares (CMS) framework, with particular attention to the underlying theoretical conditions required for diagnostic interpretation. The approach is applied to the analysis of the export performance of the Australian processed food sector in South‐East Asia over the period 1980–2003. We conclude that the usefulness of CMS analysis for evaluating a country's international trade performance depends upon the empirical validity of the aggregation assumptions implicit in the diagnostic interpretation.     

Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence*

Over the past decades, growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) has stimulated significant attempts at developing theories that explain this trend. One line of this research explores the relationship between exchange rates and FDI. There is no consensus about the nature of this relationship in either the theoretical or empirical work. In this article, we critically appraise this body of work, and find the theoretical studies to be making ground in exploring the complexities of FDI, but the empirical evidence to be constrained by data problems.     

Oil exports and the Iranian economy

This paper presents an error-correcting macroeconometric model for the Iranian economy estimated using a new quarterly data set over the period 1979Q1–2006Q4. It builds on a recent paper by the authors, Esfahani, Mohaddes, and Pesaran (in press), which develops a theoretical long-run growth model for major oil exporting economies. The core variables included in this paper are real output, real money balances, inflation, exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, although the role of investment and consumption are also analysed in a sub-model. The paper finds clear evidence for the existence of two long-run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy for the (missing) market interest rate. The results show that real output in the long run is influenced by oil exports and foreign output. However, it is also found that inflation has a significant negative long-run effect on real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies and is matched by a negative association between inflation and the investment–output ratio. Finally, the results of impulse responses show that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports, which could be partly due to the relatively underdeveloped nature of Iran's financial markets.