“南流”管道命运与俄欧乌天然气市场变局

为摆脱对过境乌克兰输气的过度依赖,俄罗斯决定建设"南流"天然气管道直接向欧洲输送天然气。欧盟自始即反对该项目,在乌克兰危机发生后,欧对俄实施制裁,更加坚决地阻止"南流"管道建设。2014年12月,俄罗斯总统普京宣布放弃"南流"管道,似乎是为这一命运曲折的管道项目划上了句号,与此同时俄开始紧锣密鼓地与土耳其商议管道过境该国的实施方案。但"南流"管道项目的最终命运取决于俄罗斯和西方整个战略关系的发展,取决于乌克兰危机以及俄欧乌天然气合作一揽子问题的解决,目前俄欧仍在博弈过程之中,不排除未来俄重返"南流"管道方案或寻求折中方案的可能性。     

Investing Volatile Resource Revenues in Capital‐Scarce Economies

Natural resource revenues are an important financing source for public investment in many developing economies. Investing volatile resource revenues, however, may subject an economy to macroeconomic instability. This paper studies fiscal approaches to investing resource revenues, using Angola as an example. With spend‐as‐you‐go, resource revenues are spent as received, resulting in little external saving; public investment can be interrupted, driving up the capital depreciation rate and undermining stability. Gradual scaling‐up, instead, allows countries to build up external saving to shield investment from revenue volatility. The framework adopted here can be used as a planning tool to define a medium‐term fiscal strategy.     

Fiscal and Monetary Policies in a Transactions‐Based Endogenous Growth Model with Imperfect Competition

This paper's model is capable of explaining the empirical evidence on the mixed growth‐rate effects of fiscal and monetary policies and a nonlinear inflation–growth relation. When monopoly power in the product market is strong/weak, an increase in the money growth rate or the income tax rate promotes/reduces the output growth rate through lowering/raising the equilibrium gross markup and increasing/reducing the net rate of return on capital. The fact that money can generate a positive growth rate effect allows for the appearance of a nonlinear inflation–growth relation. Such a nonlinear relation cannot be caused by changes in the income tax rate.     

东盟对外贸易发展的影响因素及潜力--基于引力模型的实证研究

文章基于东盟视角,运用2000—2011年东盟主要贸易伙伴的面板数据进行分析,构建贸易引力模型对双边进出口贸易流量的影响因素进行分析,估算出东盟主要贸易伙伴的贸易潜力。结果表明,贸易双方的国内生产总值对双边进出口贸易流量有正向影响,贸易双方的人口和之间的距离对双边进出口贸易流量有负向影响。通过估算贸易潜力得出东盟最具贸易潜力的三个国家分别是俄罗斯、澳大利亚和日本,中国与东盟处于潜力开拓型关系,与俄澳日三国相比尚有差距,建议未来的研究内容可以集中分析某一特定产业或某一特定产品的贸易效应,从而改善我国出口结构,提升我国的贸易竞争力。     

东寨港红树林自然保护区生态风险自然干扰分析

本文以海南省东寨港红树林自然保护区为例,选取7个指标作为研究区主要生态风险自然干扰源,并提出度量自然干扰的指标和公式,建立综合干扰评价模型,完成了区域生态风险自然干扰源的分析与评价。研究区中各种自然干扰类型的影响强度排序依次为水淹>风害>生物灾害>冷害;风暴潮>热带气旋>病虫害>海平面上升>极端冷温>潮汐>生物自然入侵。在此基础上提出东寨港红树林自然保护区生态风险管理与应对对策。     

高速列车用铝合金焊丝的生产工艺

目前我国高速列车铝合金车体主要采用MIG自动焊接,为实现自动焊接,要求焊丝尺寸精,且具有一定的刚度。国内生产的铝合金焊丝存在严重的质量不稳定问题,高速列车的铝合金焊丝尚依靠进口。为实现高速列车用铝合金焊丝的国产化,本论文针对目前高速列车使用的ER5356及ER5183铝合金焊丝,开发了铝合金光亮焊丝生产工艺。     

浅谈污水处理厂活性污泥的水热干化+焚烧的无害化处置

随着我国各地处理污水量的增多,在处理过程中,产生的污泥也越来越多。污泥中含有大量的有机物,这些有机物很可能会腐烂变质,产生大量对人体有害的化学物质和病毒细菌,如果得不到妥善处置,将会严重影响地下水、土壤,威胁人们的身体健康。因此,为了防止污泥造成的污染扩大,对其进行无害化利用,已越来越受到人们的重视。在本文的研究中,首先分析了现阶段污泥处理方面的技术工艺,然后结合实际案例对污泥的水热干化+焚烧无害化处理工艺进行了重点论述,使污泥得到最终处置,实现可持续发展。     

中国对新兴经济体国家出口持续时间及影响因素研究

出口持续时间研究对保障出口贸易的平稳发展具有重要意义。本文基于UN Comtrade数据库1998—2010年产品层面的微观数据,客观估计了我国对新兴经济体国家的出口持续时间。结果发现,我国产品出口持续时间普遍较短,均值不到4年,且贸易关系失败的概率具有明显的负时间依存性。我们进一步利用离散时间生存模型考察出口持续时间的影响因素,结果表明,引力变量对出口持续时间的影响与其对双边贸易流量的影响一致,同时,国家风险、贸易固定成本、汇率的波动、签订人民币互换协议、贸易竞争性和互补性、初始贸易额以及产品多元化均会对出口持续时间产生显著影响。在此基础上,本文提出应积极推进21世纪海上丝绸之路的建设、逐步扩大与新兴经济体国家人民币互换协议的签订、深度挖掘贸易双方互补的潜力,并在维持和深化现有贸易关系的前提下有效实施多元化战略。     

并购与种子产业发展

并购是现代经济史上一个十分突出的现象,现代种子产业的发展就是一部种子企业的并购史。从微观层次上看,并购是企业发展和追逐利润的内在要求,是实现企业扩张和资本集中的快速有效形式,从宏观层次看,是产业结构调整,合理配置资源的手段。从并购这一企业行为对市场结构和产业发展影响的角度,对世界种子产业发展中的并购过程和并购效应进行实证分析,证实了国际种子产业的并购实践对现阶段国内种子产业的借鉴意义。     

Tourist Perceptions of Event–Sponsor Brand Fit and Sponsor Brand Attitude

Sponsorships play an increasingly important role in the viability of events, including those targeted at tourists, and sponsors typically seek to build a rapport between their brands and the event attendees. The extent to which the event-related imagery benefits the sponsor brand will depend on the alignment between the sponsor brand and the event. In addressing this issue this study examines the mediating role of event–sponsor fit between visitor event-liking, self-sponsor congruity, and sponsor brand favorability. Interviews were conducted with 1215 attendees at the 2010 Taipei International Flora Exhibition and formed a basis for hypothesis testing. An examination of three sponsor brands over nine surveys concluded that event–sponsor fit consistently mediates the effect of event-liking and self-sponsor congruity on brand favorability. Results confirmed that event organizers and sponsors can benefit from the use of perceived fit as a means of shaping brand attitudes when they sponsor art- and/or social-related events.