Global production networks and China's processing trade

This paper unveils a systematic pattern in China's processing trade. In a cross-section of Chinese provinces, the average distance traveled by processing imports (import distance) is negatively correlated to the average distance traveled by processing exports (export distance). To explain this pattern, we set up a three-country industry-equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms from two advanced countries, East and West, sell their products in each other's markets. Each firm can use two modes to serve the foreign market. It can directly export its products from its home country. Alternatively, it can indirectly export to the foreign market by assembling its product in a third low-cost country, China, which is located in the vicinity of East. Our model establishes two theoretical predictions relating China's geographical location to its processing trade patterns. First, China's processing exports are negatively affected by both an increase in import distance and a rise in export distance. Second, China's processing exports to East Asian countries are more sensitive to export distance and less sensitive to import distance than its processing exports to non-Asian countries. We find empirical support for both predictions.     

Active labour market policies and job tenure

In this paper, we study the effect of subsidised on-the-jobtraining, training for the unemployed and pure wage subsidieson job tenure. Correcting for selection biases, we find thateach of the labour market policies increases the length of jobtenure. Despite the sensitivity of the estimates to the parametricassumptions with respect to the unobservables, the effect ofsubsidised on-the-job training schemes is always found to besignificantly positive. Training programs for the unemployedand pure wage subsidies always have a positive, but statisticallynon-significant effect Our results provide some support forhuman capital theories as opposed to matching theories.     

Does GDP Distort Mexico's Economic Performance?

Between 1961 and 1980, Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita grew nearly 3.50% annually. During the 1980s, however, it shrank about 0.50% per year. GDP figures suggest that there was sustained economic growth for the 1960s and 1970s, changing suddenly to contraction in the 1980s. This impression may be misleading. GDP does not account for housework or informal production outside households. Further, GDP also may be distorted by transactional activities, which are expenditures to support transactions, not actual output consumed. This study recalculates output for Mexico for the 1961-1990 sample period, controlling for transactional activities and nonmarket production. We find that GDP misstates Mexico's “actual” economic growth. In the 1960s, the economy expanded more quickly than GDP suggests. But in the 1970s, growth was less than half that of the 1960s. The economy indeed slumped in the 1980s, but not as terribly as the official figures indicate. Mexico's economy did not collapse suddenly in the early 1980s; actual economic growth had slowed dramatically during the 1970s.     

Input specificity and global sourcing

This paper identifies a new industry-equilibrium channel through which a firm’s productivity affects its organizational choice. In a two-country model with firm heterogeneity and incomplete contracts, we show that the degree of input specificity and the hold-up friction in an outsourcing relation become a function of the final good firm’s productivity when inputs are not completely specific. We examine the implications for the equilibrium international sorting pattern of firms.     

Entry,spending and firm size in a stochastic R&D race

A model is developed to explain participation and spending on R&D as a function of firm size. The R&D process is represented as an n-participant race with a Poisson incidence of success, where the winner takes all during some protection period. Four effects of scale are taken into account: a sunk fixed threshold cost of entry; a flow cost of expenditure for the duration of the race, which affects both the profitability of winning and the speed of development (the Poisson parameter), both with diminishing returns; allowance for an effect of firm size on the effectiveness (profit/cost) of development. The operational decision concerning the level and intensity of commitment in case of participation is modelled in a traditional fashion as the maximization of expected returns. The strategic decision whether or not to participate (at an optimal level and intensity) is modelled as a stochastic process of deliberation between different makers and influencers of decisions in the firm. The latter is to be seen as an introduction of the political and resource dependence views of organisations. The resulting model of R&D participation as a function of firm size is tested empirically on data from an R&D survey in the Netherlands.     

Aid Effectiveness,Debt Relief and Public Finance Response: Evidence from a Panel of HIPC Countries

Substantial amounts of debt relief have been granted to a set of low-income countries, as an alternative aid modality. Although the theoretical case for debt relief is firmly established, only empirical analysis can show whether debt relief is indeed a (more) effective mode of aid delivery. We investigate the linkages between debt relief and other fiscal variables such as current expenditure, government investment, taxation and domestic borrowing, in comparison to the effects of grants and concessional loans. We find that the fiscal impact of HIPC debt relief follows fairly complex dynamics. For example, debt relief initially reduces government investment, but the effect becomes positive after two years, well outperforming other modes of aid delivery. JEL no. F34, F35, O11, O19     

Unemployment and Catching Up: Europe Vis-à-vis the USA

This paper develops a two-region two-sector endogenous growth model with a dual labour market based on efficiency wages. Growth is driven by research done in the (high-tech) tradeables sector. The follower region tends to catch up in terms of labour productivity with the leader region. Differences in unemployment compensation systems can lead to relative convergence, i.e., a steady state with the backward region lagging behind the leader region. The reason for this is that high social welfare compensations generate high unemployment and reduce the amount of labour employed for R&D purposes.     

Exceptional performance of multinational suppliers: theory and evidence

Review of World Economics - This paper focuses on an unexamined area of trade—the behaviour of heterogeneous intermediate suppliers facing final producers of different ability and pursuing...