Global modelling in the 1990s : A critical evaluation of a new wave

It seems that after a ‘golden decade’ in the 1970s and a period of decay in the 1980s, global modelling is making a comeback. In particular, the report Scanning the Future seems to mark the beginning of a new era in this respect. In this article this ‘new wave’ of the 1990s is compared with the ‘old wave’ of the 1970s. Although there is progress in the scientific realm, these new models lack a deep concern for the burning problems of our time like the poverty gap between the North and the South and the ‘ecological problematique’. In many ways these new models reflect the new mood of the times, which lacks any vision of a new paradigm and which is strongly ‘northern-centric’.     

Urban sprawl and climate change: A statistical exploration of cause and effect,with policy options for the EU

This study provides a brief evaluation of the relationship between trends in transport emissions and urban land-use by analysing correlation between transport CO₂ emissions data, GDP and population data with land-use change data from the CORINE database for EU Member States between 1990 and 2000.     

The association between qualitative management earnings forecasts and discretionary accounting in the Netherlands

This paper examines whether there is an association between discretionary accounting and the accuracy of long-run forecasts of annual earnings disclosed voluntarily by Dutch companies in the directors’ report. In particular, investigations were made of the consistency in the sign and direction of discretionary accounting techniques and qualitative earnings forecasts. Long-run forecasts are defined, for the purposes of this paper, as forecasts made at least seven months before the year-end. Although not mandatory, qualitative forecasts are released by well over 60% of the listed companies in the Netherlands. Empirical results indicate that there is consistency in the sign and direction of qualitative earnings forecasts and discretionary accounting. After adopting discretionary accounting, the forecast errors are reduced if the company can reach the management earnings forecast (target). In the event that reserves are insufficient to accomplish this goal, managers choose their next best option and take an earnings bath in order to maximize reserves available for future use. By partitioning the sample in various sub-sets it is shown that earnings management and forecast errors occur most in the extreme ranges of financial performance. Overall, the study shows that management engages in discretionary accounting to present results in line with the disclosed qualitative earnings forecasts in their directors’ reports. Whilst discretionary accounting may clearly improve the consistency of companies’ earnings forecasts released via the directors’ reports and the actual earnings, managers’ earnings forecasts are sometimes disclosed in anticipation of planned discretionary accounting actions.     

Do Criminal Sanctions Deter Insider Trading?

Many developed markets have taken what appears to be a tough stance on illegal insider trading through the use of criminal sanctions. Although criminal sanctions represent a much greater penalty than civil sanctions, the higher burden of proof required makes their enforceability weaker. This trade off between severity and enforceability makes the impact of criminal sanctions ambiguous. We empirically examine this issue by studying the deterrence of insider trading following the introduction of criminal sanctions in a developed market. Significant changes in sanction regimes are rare, especially when criminal sanctions are introduced without other changes. In February 2008, New Zealand introduced criminal sanctions for insider trading. This change of law offers a unique setting in which to examine the deterrence effect of criminalization. Using measures for the cost of trading, degree of information asymmetry, and probability of informed trading, we find that the enactment of this law led to a worsening in these measures. These findings suggest that the weaker enforceability of criminalization outweighs the associated increased severity of the penalties in New Zealand.     

How does working-time flexibility affect workers' productivity in a routine job? Evidence from a field experiment

We conducted an experiment in which we hired workers under different types of contracts to evaluate how flexible working time affects on-the-job productivity in a routine job. Our approach breaks down the global impact on productivity into sorting and behavioural effects. We find that flexible arrangements that allow workers to decide when to start and stop working increase global productivity by as much as 50%, 40% of which is induced by sorting, and 60% represents a motivational effect, mainly driven by more effective working time, with workers reducing the length of their breaks. Our findings also suggest that part-time contracts can enhance global productivity, – though not significant at conventional levels –, and that this effect is also driven by a significant drop in the length of breaks taken. We hence contribute to the literature providing causal evidence of flexibility in routine jobs leading to higher productivity.     

The role of incubators in overcoming technology ventures’ resource gaps at different development stages

Although incubation is considered important for overcoming resource challenges in technology ventures’ early life, there is a doubt about its relevance in later development stages, when the initial idea is commercialized and the venture tries to grow. Building on the resource‐based view of the firm and on a stage‐based perspective of venture development, this study argues that the resource gaps facing technology ventures differ between different development stages, and that the support provided by incubators therefore needs to be adapted to the venture’s development stage. We study the interaction between the iMinds incubator, located in Flanders, and eight technology ventures in its portfolio. In the Conception and Development stage, we observe resource gaps in terms of technical knowledge and access to end users, which the incubator addresses by offering direct technical support and access to its research and end user network. The subsequent Commercialization stage is dominated by business knowledge gaps, which the incubator amends through direct coaching and trainings. In the Growth stage, ventures typically lack the necessary team members, market players, and follow‐up financiers to grow their firm. The incubator addresses these resource gaps by providing access to its network. In all development stages, the incubator’s internal knowledge base, networking capabilities, and matching focus/selectivity are crucial in order for ventures to benefit from the incubator’s support. Our study suggests that these underlying capabilities can either be developed organically, or through the merger of different research institutes. Moreover, it points to the importance of local embeddedness for the geographical extension of these capabilities. These findings contribute to the literature on incubation and on venture development. They have important implications for policy makers, incubation managers, and entrepreneurs seeking incubation support.     

Measuring Intersectoral Technology Spillovers: Estimates from the European and US Patent Office Databases

This paper presents several new methods for measuring intersectoral knowledge spillovers, and applies these methods in an analysis of productivity growth in manufacturing for a cross-country, cross-sectional sample for the 1980s. It is argued that existing methods of measuring such intersectoral knowledge spillovers are mostly aimed at measuring so-called crent spillovers'. The methods developed here are aimed at measuring knowledge spillovers—an additional aspect of the spillover process. The empirical analysis shows that there are indeed differences between these two types of spillover measure.     

The Impact of Debt Financing on Entry and Exit in a Duopoly

This article investigates the interaction between market entry,company foreclosure, and capital structure in a duopoly. Wefind that the order in which firms foreclose is determined notonly by differences in firm-specific factors, but also by commoneconomic factors, such as the interest rate and the market profitvolatility. We extend the exit model by allowing financiallydistressed firms to renegotiate their debt contracts througha one-off debt exchange offer. We find that firms with highbankruptcy costs or with prospects of profit improvement canget bigger reductions on their debt repayments. Investigatingmarket entry, we find that financial vulnerability of the incumbentinduces earlier entry.