The effect of distance and road quality on food collection, marketing margins, and traders' wages: evidence from the former Zaire

Food price variation is typical of the food economies of many low income countries. The presence or absence of road infrastructure is perceived to be one of the main determinants of this variation. This analysis shows that in the case of the former Zaire, food price dispersion is significant both across products and across regions. It is demonstrated that transportation costs explain most of the differences in food prices between producer regions and that road quality is an important factor in the transportation costs. However, food prices decrease relatively faster than transportation costs increase and traders' wages are higher on bad roads.     

Examining the Effectiveness of Fear Appeals in Prompting Help‐Seeking: The Case of At‐Risk Gamblers

With a sample of Australian at‐risk gamblers, this research examines the impact of gender and individual difference in experiential avoidance (EA; cognitive and emotional suppression) on the processing of fear appeals. Study 1, through thematic analysis, explores fear appeal perceptions among at‐risk gamblers. The results identify that relevant threats, such as social and psychological, should be integrated into fear‐inducing advertising stimuli. Study 2 uses multigroup comparisons in structural equation modeling (SEM) to test the robustness of the revised protection motivation model (RPMM) in predicting the effectiveness of fear appeals to induce help‐seeking intentions in at‐risk gamblers. This research examines the boundary conditions of the RPMM through the moderating roles of gender and EA. The results provide evidence that fear partially mediates the impact of perceived susceptibility (PS) on help‐seeking intentions in low experiential avoiders, whereas high experimental avoiders resist fear elicitation. Furthermore, evoked fear does not lead to help‐seeking intentions in male at‐risk gamblers. In female at‐risk gamblers, while fear prompts help‐seeking intentions, PS (i.e., probability of harm) does not translate to behavioral intentions via fear. For both genders and low and high experiential avoiders, cognitive appraisals of PS significantly and positively impact help‐seeking intentions. This research demonstrates the unique roles of gender and EA on fear appeal effectiveness in at‐risk gamblers.     

Estimating international technology spillovers using technology flow matrices

Estimating International Technology Spillovers Using Technology Flow Matrices. — This paper investigates the impact of international R &; D spillovers on sectoral growth patterns in OECD countries. It applies panel regression techniques to a time-series cross-section panel. It arrives at the conclusion that knowledge spillovers are an important contributor to economic growth. The estimation results are applied in the form of a ‘simulation’ of TFP growth per country, splitting (R &; D-related) TFP into a component due to domestic R &; D and one due to foreign R &; D. The results also show that the United States and Germany are the most influential countries in terms of contributions to other countries’ TFP growth.     

Incremental approaches to establishing trust

We investigate cooperation using an incremental investment game in which the first-mover has the ability to make small, but increasing incremental investments in their counterpart. Our experiment is designed to test whether establishing trust in small increments is more effective than alternatives, including a one-shot investment game, a decrease only condition where the amount the first-mover sends to the second-mover must be less than the amount previously sent, and an unrestricted condition where the first-mover is not restricted by the amount previously sent. Although results were mixed, broadly, iteration affords greater cooperation than one-shot games and, when given the choice, participants seem to prefer to build trust gradually. Implications for institutional design are discussed.      

Information trading by corporate insiders based on accounting accruals: forecasting economic performance

In this paper, we test whether directors’ (corporate insiders) trading in Australia, based on accounting accruals, provides incremental information in forecasting a firm's economic performance. We determine that directors’ trading on negative accruals in larger firms has greater forecasting content and is associated with 1‐year‐ahead bull market phases. Moreover, arbitrage portfolios set up to mimic insider trading can earn 1‐year‐ahead excess size‐adjusted arbitrage returns of up to 12.2 per cent. Results are consistent with directors hiding their trades in liquid well‐traded firms and in providing incremental information above that supplied by a continuous information regime.     

On randomization, modeling and experimental design; a new example in an old discussion

Fisher and "Student" quarreled in the early days of statistics about the design of experiments, meant to measure the difference in yield between to breeds of corn. This discussion comes down to randomization versus model building. More than half a century has passed since, but the different views remain. In this paper the discussion is put in terms of artificial randomization and natural randomization, the latter being what remains after appropriate modeling. Also the Bayesian position is discussed. An example in terms of the old corn-breeding discussion is given, showing that a simple robust model may lead to inference and experimental design that outperforms the inference from randomized experiments by far. Finally similar possibilities are suggested in statistical auditing.     

Wrapped input selection using multilayer perceptrons for repeat‐purchase modeling in direct marketing

In this paper, we try to validate existing theory on and develop additional insight into repeat‐purchase behavior in a direct marketing setting by means of an illuminating case study. The case involves the detection and qualification of the most relevant RFM (Recency, Frequency and Monetary) variables, using a neural network wrapper as our input pruning method. Results indicate that elimination of redundant and/or irrelevant inputs by means of the discussed input selection method allows us to significantly reduce model complexity without degrading the predictive generalization ability. It is precisely this issue that will enable us to infer some interesting marketing conclusions concerning the relative importance of the RFM predictor categories and their operationalizations. The empirical findings highlight the importance of a combined use of RFM variables in predicting repeat‐purchase behavior. However, the study also reveals the dominant role of the frequency category. Results indicate that a model including only frequency variables still yields satisfactory classification accuracy compared to the optimally reduced model. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equilibrium traits of durable commodity money

A dynamic model of utility-maximizing agents explains why scarce, durable commodities are typically monetary. The model provides quantitative criteria for distinguishing between monetary and non-monetary durables, and is also used to analyze symmetallic equilibria.The model is then extended to analyze commodity-backed paper money. It is demonstrated that the backing generates trust in the paper money in the dynamic-consistency sense. The model predicts regular devaluations as an equilibrium phenomenon, but finds such behavior to be efficient. Finally, the results are integrated to make a technical point about dynamic models of pure fiat money.