Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility

Quantile forecasts are central to risk management decisions because of the widespread use of Value-at-Risk. A quantile forecast is the product of two factors: the model used to forecast volatility, and the method of computing quantiles from the volatility forecasts. In this paper we calculate and evaluate quantile forecasts of the daily exchange rate returns of five currencies. The forecasting models that have been used in recent analyses of the predictability of daily realized volatility permit a comparison of the predictive power of different measures of intraday variation and intraday returns in forecasting exchange rate variability. The methods of computing quantile forecasts include making distributional assumptions for future daily returns as well as using the empirical distribution of predicted standardized returns with both rolling and recursive samples. Our main findings are that the Heterogenous Autoregressive model provides more accurate volatility and quantile forecasts for currencies which experience shifts in volatility, such as the Canadian dollar, and that the use of the empirical distribution to calculate quantiles can improve forecasts when there are shifts.     

UNDERSTANDING MEMBER CHARACTERISTICS AND COOPERATIVE PRICE EFFECTS: THE CASE OF THE ARGENTINEAN DAIRY SECTOR

Since the 1990s, Argentinean dairy‐processing cooperatives have lost considerable amounts of members and market share. We analyse their current role by investigating the characteristics of farmers who continue delivering to them and price differentials between cooperatives and investor‐oriented firms (IOFs). A probit regression model applied to 917 farmers suggests that cooperative farmers are more disadvantaged than farmers delivering to IOFs in terms of education, farm size and productive technology. Moreover, t‐tests applied to data representing 70 per cent of national volume indicate that farmers delivering to cooperatives are between 11 per cent and 29 per cent smaller than those delivering to IOFs, depending on province. A hierarchical multilevel regression model applied to 9,720 transactions among farmers and processors shows that, after controlling for quantity and quality, cooperatives pay lower (3.5%) but more stable prices than IOFs. In a context of rapid structural change, we observe a market in which larger farmers deliver to IOFs and smaller farmers deliver to cooperatives and conclude that, at the expense of paying lower prices, cooperatives may act as buyers of last resort for otherwise disadvantaged farmers.     

CAPM and APT-like models with risk measures

The paper deals with optimal portfolio choice problems when risk levels are given by coherent risk measures, expectation bounded risk measures or general deviations. Both static and dynamic pricing models may be involved. Unbounded problems are characterized by new notions such as (strong) compatibility between prices and risks. Surprisingly, the lack of bounded optimal risk and/or return levels arises for important pricing models (Black and Scholes) and risk measures (VaR, CVaR, absolute deviation, etc.). Bounded problems present a Market Price of Risk and generate a pair of benchmarks. From these benchmarks we introduce APT and CAPM-like analyses, in the sense that the level of correlation between every available security and some economic factors explains the security expected return. The risk level non correlated with these factors has no influence on any return, despite the fact that we are dealing with risk functions beyond the standard deviation.     

Cost-effectiveness of 3-month paliperidone treatment for chronic schizophrenia in Spain

Background: A 3-month long treatment of paliperidone palmitate (PP3M) has been introduced as an option for treating schizophrenia. Its cost-effectiveness in Spain has not been established.

Aims: To compare the costs and effects of PP3M compared with once-monthly paliperidone (PP1M) from the payer perspective in Spain.

Methods: This study used the recently published trial by Savitz et al. as a core model over 1 year. Additional data were derived from the literature. Costs in 2016 Euros were obtained from official lists and utilities from Osborne et al. The authors conducted both cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analyses. For the former, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was calculated. For the latter, the outcomes were relapses and hospitalizations avoided. To assure the robustness of the analyses, a series of 1-way and probability sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results: The expected cost was lower with PP3M (4,780€) compared with PP1M (5,244€). PP3M had the fewest relapses (0.080 vs 0.161), hospitalizations (0.034 v.s 0.065), and emergency room visits (0.045 v.s 0.096) and the most QALYs (0.677 v.s 0.625). In both cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses, PP3M dominated PP1M. Sensitivity analyses confirmed base case findings. For the primary analysis (cost-utility), PP3M dominated PP1M in 46.9% of 10,000 simulations and was cost-effective at a threshold of 30,000€/QALY gained.

Conclusions: PP3M dominated PP1M in all analyses and was, therefore, cost-effective for treating chronic relapsing schizophrenia in Spain. For patients who require long-acting therapy, PP3M appears to be a good alternative anti-psychotic treatment.     

Human approach in the quality management system of manufacturing SMEs in Mexico Theoretical review and proposal of a conceptual model

Currently, globalization and competitiveness exert an enormous pressure on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector in Mexico, for that reason they must be more effective and flexible to meet customer demand. In this article, we reviewed the literature on the subject according to the level of significance of variables like human factor, quality culture, quality management system (QMS) and innovation, considered as key elements of a latent competitive scale as from their exploration and explanation. The main objective of this research is to carry out a critical analysis by relating the importance of the human factor of QMS, through research on socio-emotional, intellectual factors and ethics values for achieving the effectiveness of QMS at all organization levels; it also provides a link between variables of quality culture, value propositions, and innovation. Finally, this work discusses the design of a human factor-based quality model to ensure the value propositions for customer and stakeholders’ satisfaction.     

The client as co-manufacturer and environmental entrepreneur: a research agenda

The purpose of this article is to detect issues of greatest interest and to establish a proposal that can be used as a basis to study the client's environmental entrepreneurship in service sector companies. The study is based on the existing literature on service innovation and the bibliography dedicated to environmental management specific to these innovations. This study poses a few questions that, together with many others, must be addressed in the future. These studies will inevitably contribute to improve the environmental performance of service companies.     

Asymmetric Behaviour of Spanish Regional House Prices

In connection with the housing market, which is presently raising a great deal of concern among the general public, this paper investigates regional housing prices in Spain using variable co-integration techniques. It analyzes the asymmetric behavior in real house prices among the Spanish regions focusing on the study of the long-term relationships over time. This paper raises an important question of the national averages masking important regional asymmetries. Results indicate evidence of co-integration, which suggests a broad grouping of regions based on physical proximity or similar economic characteristics.

Management and employee involvement in achieving an environmental action-based competitive advantage: an empirical study

The objective of this work is to conduct an empirical study that shows whether certain management and human resource factors influence the achievement of an environmental action-based competitive advantage in a company. To this end, we have taken a sample of 110 factories. Management's deep involvement and its strategic integration, as well as employee motivation and participation, have a positive impact on the achievement of an environmental action-based competitive advantage in a company.     

The diffusion of exporting in Brazilian industrial clusters

The present research aimed at understanding the process by which firms in a cluster start to export based on systemic interactions, and the process of diffusion of exporting as a business strategy within the cluster. Diffusion was defined, following Rogers’ (1995: 5) seminal work, as ‘the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system’. The research method used was industry case studies and the unit of analysis selected was the cluster. Two manufacturing industries were chosen to be investigated, and within each geographic area clusters were identified as the origin of dynamic export growth in the industry. Players in each industrial cluster, as well as other significant actors, were interviewed. Extensive secondary data research was done to study clusters’ historical development. Detailed analysis and a comparison of the experiences permitted the extraction of some general conclusions concerning the similarities and differences between the clusters in terms of the adoption and diffusion of exporting. Results showed that the diffusion of exporting in an industrial cluster is quite similar to the dissemination of technical innovation. Social ties were important to facilitate the diffusion of exporting in one of the clusters studied. Also, the role of domestically-owned flagship firms in leading the internationalization process proved to be important in only one of the clusters, while the role of external actors was fully supported in the two industries studied. Finally, a number of support institutions, private and public, interfered in different stages of the internationalization process. In both industries, the federal government had only a late and limited impact on export initiation and development.