EMU and trade: A PPML re-assessment with intra-national trade flows

This paper examines the EMU effect on trade for the eleven early joiners and Greece relying for the first time on data that include both international and intra-national trade flows, in line with all the microfoundations of the structural gravity model of trade. We find that the overall EMU impact on trade is positive between its members and, specially, for trade between members and non-members. Interestingly, we further show that the effect of the EMU on bilateral trade remarkably differs across countries. For Ireland, Belgium–Luxembourg, Spain, Portugal and Austria, we find robust evidence that EMU has boosted trade both with other members and with third countries, while for Finland, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, the results suggest that only trade with third countries has been enhanced by the EMU. Greece is the only country that shows a negative impact in trade with other EMU members and no effect in trade with non-members. Finally, the results across countries according to the direction of the trade flows (exports versus imports) do not show significant differences in any case.     

A Note on Gaussian Estimation of the CKLS and CIR Models with Feedback Effects for Japan

In this note we extend the Gaussian estimation of two factor CKLS and CIR models recently considered in Nowman, K. B. (2001, Gaussian estimation and forecasting of multi-factor term structure models with an application to Japan and the United Kingdom, Asia Pacif. Financ. Markets 8, 23–34) to include feedback effects in the conditional mean as was originally formulated in general continuous time models by Bergstrom, A. R. (1966, Non-recursive models as discrete approximations to systems of stochastic differential equations, Econometrica 34, 173–182) with constant volatility. We use the exact discrete model of Bergstrom, A. R. (1966, Non-recursive models as discrete approximations to systems of stochastic differential equations, Econometrica 34, 173–182) to estimate the parameters which was first used by Brennan, M. J. and Schwartz, E. S. (1979, A continuous time approach to the pricing of bonds, J. Bank. Financ. 3, 133–155) to estimate their two factor interest model but incorporating the assumption of Nowman, K. B. (1997, Gaussian estimation of single-factor continuous time models of the term structure of interest rates, J. Financ. 52, 1695–1706; 2001, Gaussian estimation and forecasting of multi-factor term structure models with an application to Japan and the United Kingdom, Asia Pacif. Financ. Markets 8, 23–34). An application to monthly Japanese Euro currency rates indicates some evidence of feedback from the 1-year rate to the 1-month rate in both the CKLS and CIR models. We also find a low level-volatility effect supporting Nowman, K. B. (2001, Gaussian estimation and forecasting of multi-factor term structure models with an application to Japan and the United Kingdom, Asia Pacif. Financ. Markets 8, 23–34).     

Uninsured idiosyncratic risk, liquidity constraints and aggregate fluctuations

Summary. I study the role played by uninsured idiosyncratic risk and liquidity constraints in the propagation of aggregate fluctuations. To this purpose, I compare the aggregate fluctuations of two model economies that differ in their insurance technologies only. In one of these model economies liquidity constrained households vary their holdings of a nominally denominated asset in order to buffer an uninsured idiosyncratic shock to their individual production opportunities. In the other economy every idiosyncratic component of risk can be costlessly insured. I find that the limited insurance technology implies fluctuations in output that are 20% larger, fluctuations in hours relative to output that are 9% larger, fluctuations in consumption relative to output that are 18% smaller, and a correlation of hours and productivity that is 15% smaller than those that obtain under the full insurance technology. Received: March 6, 1996; revised version August 15, 1996     

地下室现浇混凝土墙板的裂缝与防控

地下室现浇混凝土墙板受多种因素影响，容易产生裂缝，影响结构的抗渗性能、损害结构的承载能力、使用功能和耐久性。为控制和减少裂缝，必须坚持“防、抗、放”相结合的原则，从设计、材料、配合比、施工、养护等全面分析裂缝产生的原则，并采取针对性预控措施，有效地控制裂缝的产生和发展。     

A Comparison of χ2, RFA and IRT Based Procedures in the Detection of DIF

Bias research began at the end of the 1960s anddeveloped rapidly in the following decades for obvioussocial and political reasons, and due to the importantimpact that this issue has on the field ofpsychological and educational measurement. Since then,several methods have been proposed for the study anddetection of item bias or differential itemfunctioning (DIF). This paper presents a simulationstudy comparing the potential of some of these methodsfor detecting DIF: two IRT-based techniques (area measures), three ²-based procedures (MantelHaenszel, Logit Model and Logistic Regression) and theRestricted Factor Analysis method. The results showthat the technique that appears to do the best job isthe Mantel Haenszel statistic. Moreover, all detectiontechniques tend to overidentify DIF items, that is,some of the items labeled with DIF may in fact bewithout DIF. This tendency is slightly reversed in theLogistic Regression procedure.     

An Approach to Support Negotiation Processes with Imprecise Information Multicriteria Additive Models

This paper discusses the possible uses of the VIP (Variable Interdependent Parameters) Analysis software and methodology in negotiation support. VIP Analysis is a decision support tool that incorporates complementary approaches to deal with the aggregation of multi-criteria performances under imprecise information. Its purpose is to support the evaluation of a discrete set of alternatives according to multi-attribute additive value functions. We propose extensions of the methodology of VIP Analysis to address explicitly the differences among the actors in terms of the weights space.     

Financing Preferences of Spanish Firms: Evidence on the Pecking Order Theory

This paper analyses some of the empirical implications of the pecking order theory in the Spanish market using a panel data analysis of 1,566 firms over 1994–2000. The results show that the pecking order theory holds for most subsamples analyzed, particularly for the small and medium-sized enterprises and for the high-growth and highly leveraged companies. It is also shown that both the more and the less leveraged firms tend to converge towards more balanced capital structures. Finally, we observe that firms finance their funds flow deficits with long term debt.     

Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques in a Decision Support System for Group Decision Making

This paper describes a group decision support system based on an additive multi-attribute utility model for identifying a consensus strategy in group decision-making problems where several decision-makers or groups of decision-makers elicit their own preferences separately. On the one hand, the system provides procedures to quantify the DMs or group of DMs preferences separately. This involves assessing the DMs or group of DMs component utilities that represent their preferences regarding the respective possible attribute values and objective weights that represent the relative importance of the criteria. On the other hand, we propose Monte Carlo simulation techniques for identifying a consensus strategy. An iterative process will be carried out, where, after the simulations have been performed, the imprecise component utilities and weights corresponding to the different DMs or groups of DMs are tightened to output more meaningful information in the next simulations to achieve a consensus strategy. Finally, an application to the evaluation of remedial strategies for restoring contaminated aquatic ecosystems illustrates the usefulness and flexibility of this decision support tool.     

Economic Efficiency and Productivity Growth in the Post-Privatization Chilean Hydroelectric Industry

Chiles hydroelectric industry was privatized in 1985, but required to operate within a regulatory framework designed to achieve a competitive outcome. A centralized dispatch center was established to ensure production at minimum cost, subject to constraints on minimum release and minimum reservoir stock. A reluctance to rapidly reduce the industry work force may also have existed. We develop a constrained cost-minimization model for thermal and hydro generation to obtain the shadow price of water and to determine the qualitative effect of these constraints on allocative efficiency. Using panel data from 1986–1997, we assess the economic efficiency of the hydro industry by estimating a stochastic distance frontier and price equations from the dual cost-minimization problem. We find dramatic increases in technical change and productivity change, with positive efficiency change for all years but the last. We also observe a dramatic decline in allocative inefficiencies over our sample period. The share of hydro generation from run-of-river and thermal plants relative to reservoir plants has increased, presumably in reaction to the water release and reservoir stock constraints, reducing the relative over-utilization of capital to water from the pre-1985 regime. Further, the over-utilization of labor to capital and water has fallen over time. However, considerable allocative inefficiencies remain, consistent with our finding of industry-wide scale economies. Substantial cost savings would result if technical and allocative efficiency were eliminated.JEL Classification: L94, D24     

对技术出口中专利壁垒的私力救济与公力破解——以DVD专利池纠纷案为切入点

在国际技术进出口中目前存在着大量的非关税壁垒措施,发达国家利用这些措施来遏制发展中国家的发展与竞争.就中国近年来看,技术出口中被国外设置专利壁垒的情况相当严重.文章以DVD专利池纠纷案为切入点,探讨应对技术出口中的专利壁垒问题,不仅需要企业自身的私力救济,同时需要政府和相应组织的公力破解.