Hachemeister's Bayesian regression model revisited

Hachemeister's (1975) regression model is discussed from a number of viewpoints including credibility theory, Gauss-Markov theory and the Kalman filter. The last formulation facilitates recursive premium formulae including forecast errors. Recursive estimation of structural parameters is also briefly mentioned and an illustration involving a data set is presented. The paper basically serves to unify a number of recently developed ideas rather than present new results.     

A NOTE ON INTEREST RATES AND THE RISK OF BANK AND SAVINGS AND LOAN STOCK

This study examines the relationship between interest rates and the risk of bank and savings and loan stocks. Implied standard deviations from call option prices are used as risk estimates of the financial institutions’ stocks. Results indicate that there is a positive relationship between the risk of depository institution equities and the general level of interest rates. In addition, an upward shift in their risk occurred in late 1982, coinciding with several events that were important to the financial industry (the Penn-Square Bank failure, the Mexican debt crisis, and the passage of the Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act).     

When are adaptive expectations rational? A generalization

This note presents a simple generalization of the adaptive expectations mechanism in which the learning parameter is time variant. Expectations generated in this way minimize mean squared forecast errors for any linear state space model.