Consumption and exchange rate uncertainty: Evidence from selected Asian countries

We set out to assess the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on real consumption in selected Asian countries. Consumption influences business cycles, which in turn shape short-run monetary policy decisions. Hence, understanding factors driving consumption is appealing to policymakers. To date, few studies have analysed the effects of uncertainty on consumption. The available ones generally focus on the long-run effects, in spite of the fact that the short-run persistence and adjustments to equilibrium are equally relevant. Our study takes these limitations seriously by distinguishing the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate uncertainty on consumption. Using a flexible dynamic panel data technique that allows long-run effects to be homogeneous and the short-run effects to be heterogeneous, we find that uncertainty impedes consumption in the long run. In the short run, however, the effects are immaterial. This evidence remains robust to the measure of uncertainty, asymmetric uncertainty, inflation and the global financial crisis of 2008. By decomposing uncertainty into its temporary and permanent components, we find that the latter have a stronger effect on consumption in the long run than the former. Although both components demand policy attention, the evidence suggests that policymakers should be more concerned with permanent uncertainty.     

The value relevance of comprehensive income under alternative presentation formats permitted by ASU 2011-05

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Under Accounting Standards Update 2011-05, firms can present comprehensive income (CI), defined as the sum of net income (NI) and other comprehensive...     

From volatility smiles to the volatility of volatility

Decisions in Economics and Finance - The paper reviews models of the option surface and reduced-form models for stochastic volatility in continuous time, under the risk-neutral measure. It defines...     

Optimal portfolios under worst-case scenarios

In standard portfolio theories such as Mean–Variance optimization, expected utility theory, rank dependent utility heory, Yaari’s dual theory and cumulative prospect theory, the worst outcomes for optimal strategies occur when the market declines (e.g. during crises), which is at odds with the needs of many investors. Hence, we depart from the traditional settings and study optimal strategies for investors who impose additional constraints on their final wealth in the states corresponding to a stressed financial market. We provide a framework that maintains the stylized features of the SP/A theory while dealing with the goal of security in a more flexible way. Preferences become state-dependent, and we assess the impact of these preferences on trading decisions. We construct optimal strategies explicitly and show how they outperform traditional diversified strategies under worst-case scenarios.     

The Way to the Top: Career Patterns of Fortune 100 CEOS

How have the CEOs of Fortune 100 companies worked their way to the top position? Are there several paths to the top, or have most present‐day CEOs moved up the ranks in a similar fashion? We examine the employment trajectories of all of the current Fortune 100 CEOs across their entire working careers to answer these questions. The analysis developed in this article is carried out in two steps. We first use sequence analysis to find the patterns that are characteristic of the career paths of these CEOs . We then apply clustering techniques to identify distinct groups of career paths that have led individuals to the uppermost management level. Our results show that the careers of the Fortune 100 CEOs have largely followed traditional career paths that are symbolized by steady progression toward more responsibility, little mobility between firms and industries, and a strong focus on general management functions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Creative destruction and firm-specific performance heterogeneity

Traditional U.S. industries with higher firm-specific stock return and fundamentals performance heterogeneity use information technology (IT) more intensively and post faster productivity growth in the late 20th century. We argue that this mechanically reflects a wave of Schumpeter's creative destruction disrupting a wide swath of industries, with successful IT adopters unpredictably undermining established firms. This validates endogenous growth theory models of creative destruction and suggests intensified creative destruction as explaining findings associating greater firm-specific performance variation with higher per capita GDPs, economy growth rates, accounting standards, financial system development, and property right protection.     

Bootstrap J-Test for Panel Data Models with Spatially Dependent Error Components,a Spatial Lag and Additional Endogenous Variables

We develop a bootstrap J-test method for testing a panel model against one non-nested alternative when the competing specifications are estimated by Feasible Generalised Spatial Two Stage Least Squares/Generalised Method of Moments (FGS2SLS/GMM). Both models incorporate spatially correlated error components, thus accounting for spatial heterogeneity via random effects, and accommodate endogenous regressors other than the spatially lagged dependent variable. The proposed scheme is applied to a testing problem involving non-nested wage equations as motivated by the Wage Curve literature and the New Economic Geography theory. Results show that our bootstrap test is a reliable and effective procedure for correcting asymptotic reference critical values and distinguishing between the two rival hypotheses.     

University of Texas Roundtable on Financing and Managing Energy Investments in a Low‐Price Environment

During the past 18 months, the U.S. oil industry has seen oil prices plunge from well over $100 a barrel to under $30. In a session that was part of a recent Private Equity Conference at the University of Texas in Austin, the CEO of a small independent producer and a representative of a large global oil and gas company discussed the challenges of financing and operating energy companies in today's low‐price environment with the director of energy research at a brokerage firm, the senior partner responsible for the natural resource investments of a well‐known private equity firm, and the head of the oil and gas restructuring practice of a national law firm. The panelists appeared to reach a consensus on at least the following three arguments:

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Optimal Reinsurance Arrangements Under Tail Risk Measures

Regulatory authorities demand insurance companies control their risk exposure by imposing stringent risk management policies. This article investigates the optimal risk management strategy of an insurance company subject to regulatory constraints. We provide optimal reinsurance contracts under different tail risk measures and analyze the impact of regulators' requirements on risk sharing in the reinsurance market. Our results underpin adverse incentives for the insurer when compulsory Value-at-Risk risk management requirements are imposed. But economic effects may vary when regulatory constraints involve other risk measures. Finally, we compare the obtained optimal designs to existing reinsurance contracts and alternative risk transfer mechanisms on the capital market.