Assessing a Perfect European Optimum Currency Area: A Common Cycles Approach

In this paper we introduce a new definition for an optimum currency area (OCA) which is more restrictive than the previous ones. Indeed, using both a cointegration and a common cyclical feature analysis in a VAR(p)framework, a set of countries is said to constitute a perfect OCA if theshort-run dynamics is perfectly correlated while long-run relationships arenot constrained. Using seasonally unadjusted industrial production indicesfor the period 75:M1 to 97:M4, we show that European countries are notsufficiently related to fit our definition.     

Housing crowding in developing countries and willingness to pay for additional space: The case of Korea

The very rapid rates of urban population growth in developing countries is placing great strain on their housing stock. Housing policies which are aiming at reducing or eliminating crowding are generally based on notions of ‘needs’ and ‘standards of adequacy’ which are more often based on arbitrarily selected criteria than on domestic economic conditions. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the willingness to pay for the additional housing space by households and the validity of target housing standards. The three methods used show consistently that — at least in Korea — the willingness to pay for additional space is less than 25 percent of the value of an extra unit of space, everything else being equal.     

White Flight or Flight from Poverty?

The phenomenon of White flight is often illustrated by the case of Detroit whose population dropped from 1.80 to 0.95 million between 1950 and 2000 while at the same time its Black and Hispanic component grew from 30 to 85%. But is this case really representative? The present paper shows that the phenomenon of White flight is in fact essentially a flight from poverty. As a confirmation, we show that the changes in White or Black populations are highly correlated which means that White flight is always paralleled by Black flight (and Hispanic flight as well). This broader interpretation of White flight accounts not only for the case of northern cities such as Cincinnati, Cleveland or Detroit, but for all population changes at county level, provided the population density is higher than a threshold of about 50 km² which corresponds to moderately urbanized areas (as can be found in states like Indiana or Virginia for instance).     

COMPOUNDING FINANCIAL REPRESSION WITH RIGID URBAN REGULATIONS: Lessons of the Korean Housing Market*

This paper explores the interactions between financial and urban policies, and their joint impact on the performance of the housing sector during the course of economic development. The central hypothesis is that extended periods of financial repression and the scarcity of mortgage lending have generated significant distortions in the output of the Korean housing sector. In addition, combined with very restrictive urban planning and land use regulations, this financial situation may have led to under-investment in the urban sector of Korea during much of the past two decades.     

On the smoothness of optimal paths

Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the differentiability property of optimal paths in dynamic economic models. We address this problem from the point of view of the differential calculus in sequence spaces which are infinite-dimensional Banach spaces. We assume that the return or utility function is concave, and that optimal paths are interior and bounded. We study the C ^r differentiability of optimal paths vis-à-vis different parameters. These parameters are: the initial vector of capital stock, the discount rate and a parameter which lies in a Banach space (which could be the utility function itself). The method consists of applying an implicit function theorem on the Euler–Lagrange equation. In order to do this, we make use of classical conditions (i.e., the dominant diagonal block assumption) and we provide new ones. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 90A16, 49K40, 93C55 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: C161, D99, O41     

Do misalignments predict aggregated stock-market volatility?

This paper considers forecasting regressions of “realized volatility” on a misalignment measure. Results show that this misalignment measure is useful to predict in and out-of-sample stock-market volatility at monthly horizons. The analysis also suggests a threshold effect.     

Is there Value-Added Information in Liquidity and Risk Premiums?

Size has become a significant factor in explaining returns. According to the size effect, smaller capitalization stocks on average outperform larger capitalization stocks over long periods of time. This paper first documents the traditional size effect on the French market for the 1986–1998 period. It introduces a new proxy for size, free float, which is argued to be the appropriate measure of size and liquidity for most non‐US markets. Evidence is presented of a negative link between historical returns and free float. The link is significant even outside of the month of January, a notable divergence from results obtained on the NYSE. The rest of the paper is an attempt to take advantage of this 'ex‐post' phenomenon on an 'ex‐ante' basis, with an empirical study of the link between expected return, risk, and liquidity in a sample consisting of the main 150 stocks quoted on the Paris Bourse between January 1986 and January 1998. Liquidity premiums are estimated for portfolios from both a univariate and a multivariate perspective. The paper shows how risk and liquidity premiums can be used separately or in tandem for market timing and asset allocation. In all cases, the use of both premiums together leads to superior performance. Results confirm our measurements of liquidity and liquidity premiums and supply evidence that liquidity premiums together with risk premiums are useful in active asset management.     

The Diversion of Order Flow on French Stocks from CAC to SEAQ International: a Field Study

The competition between SEAQ International and Continental European equity markets to attract transactions in the most actively traded European stocks has intensified since the late 1980s. Because their transactions are organised in a different manner, and because reporting standards are not the same, comparisons of official transaction volumes from SEAQ International and the French CAC market system are misleading. The objective of this paper is to scrutinise the order flow for French stocks and the reporting procedures on both market systems, so as to ascertain the effective transactions on each market and estimate actual market shares. Based on both the observation of official statistics and a field study of order flows conducted among five large and active brokerage houses with a book on both markets, SEAQI's market share in French stocks as reported in previous studies using only official volume statistics seems largely overstated.     

Standardization of Network Technologies: Market Processes or the Result of Inter‐Firm Co‐operation?

As recent studies on the evolution of a technology indicate, the role of a standard, or dominant design, is highly significant in a number of contemporary industries such as computer, telecommunications and consumer electronics. Following Katz' and Shapiro's pioneering works (1985), our paper rationally evaluates the concepts and results developed over the past ten years in this field. It is grounded on a typology of two types of models: the first is based on users' anticipatory behaviour, and the second, on the collaborative behaviour of existing firms. The article initially discusses the specificity of network technologies, then analyses market standardisation models, and finally, studies the different actors models. Our conclusion builds upon existing works in network technologies. We next propose a research agenda