A Note on How and Why Growth and Unemployment Go Hand in Hand in Developing Economies

This paper develops a simple model to explain the phenomenon of persistent unemployment, even in an economy experiencing high output growth. In the model, unemployment grows at a rate identical with the growth rate of input factors and sectors. The result is primarily triggered by a pre-fixed minimum wage for unskilled workers. To corroborate our claim, we have empirically tested our model hypothesis using data for 12 developing countries and found empirical results consistent with the theory. To mitigate or reduce unemployment, history becomes crucial in deciding on the desired rate of growth in different sectors.     

Cointegration in Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross‐Section Dependence

The power of standard panel cointegration statistics may be affected by misspecification errors if structural breaks in the parameters generating the process are not considered. In addition, the presence of cross‐section dependence among the panel units can distort the empirical size of the statistics. We therefore design a testing procedure that allows for both structural breaks and cross‐section dependence when testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration. The paper proposes test statistics that can be used when one or both features are present. We illustrate our proposal by analysing the pass‐through of import prices on a sample of European countries. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WHO WILL RETURN AND WHEN? AN ANALYSIS OF RURAL-TO-URBAN MIGRANTS IN INDIA*

An analysis of temporary migration in India is presented. In particular, the author examines, within a multivariate context, the importance of various socioeconomic factors that influence the future plans of rural-urban migrants and their intended timing of return to the rural area. The data are from a 1975-1976 survey of 1,615 migrant heads of households in Delhi.     

On the specification and estimation of macro rural-urban migration functions: with an application to Indian data

The authors suggest several extensions and modifications to the existing specifications of macro migration functions as suggested by Todar through a more careful investigation of the micro theory underlying migration decisions. They use a probabilistic migration model to examine internal migration in India and present evidence that migration tends first to rise and then to fall as rural income rises     

Information flow,expectations and job search: rural-to-urban migration process in India

"Probabilistic migration models assume that search for urban jobs is entirely an urban-based activity and that employment in free-entry activities is a transitional phase during which migrants are actively searching for formal sector employment. This paper tests the empirical validity of these assumptions using data, collected by the author in a sample survey in Delhi [India] in 1975-76, on 1,400 migrants from rural areas." Evidence is presented "that the migration process postulated in probabilistic models is not realistic in the case of Delhi. Over one-half of the sample had moved to Delhi after lining up specific jobs; a sizeable proportion expected to enter on arrival activities generally considered to be characterized by freedom of entry; and the majority of entrants into free-activities did not search for alternative employment and were engaged in the same activities at the time of the survey."     

Economic liberalization, capital mobility and informal wage in a small open economy: A theoretical analysis

Empirical evidence suggests that the size of the informal sector in the developing countries has increased considerably during the liberalized economic regime. The present paper purports to analyze the consequences of economic reforms on the wellbeing of the informal sector workforce using a three-sector general equilibrium model with two informal sectors. The theoretical analysis finds that different liberalized policies produce diverse effects on the informal wage and that these results are independent of the nature of capital mobility between the informal and the formal sectors. It also shows that labour market reforms, contrary to the common wisdom, are likely to produce favourable effects on the informal wage.     

The Contribution of Wheat to Australian Agriculture from 1861 to 1939

The influence of agriculture on Australia's nineteenth and twentieth century economic development is well known. While wool's contribution is rightly celebrated, the contribution of agricultural crops has received less attention. This paper focuses on one major staple, wheat, from 1861 to 1939. Both patent data and a new measure of technological progress, the cumulative number of wheat varieties tested for local adoption, are used to quantify the contribution of agricultural innovation to growth. We find innovation in this sector made an important contribution to the growth of total factor productivity over the period.     

Inflation Dynamics in India: Relative Role of Structural and Monetary Factors

This paper examines the relative role of structural and monetary factors in the variation of inflation in India over the period 1996–1997:Q1 to 2013–2014:Q4. The paper finds that both the monetary factors and the output gap has significant role. The role of the output gap in inflation is found more prominent than the monetary factors like broad money growth, interest rate and change in exchange rate. The depreciation of exchange rate and broad money growth stimulates inflation where as the interest rate is identified as an anti-inflationary monetary instrument. In view of a comprehensive policy for price stability, it is imperative to know the role of sectoral output gap in inflation. The paper, therefore, enquires the relative role of the primary, secondary and tertiary sector output gap in inflation. Output gap of each of these three sectors provokes inflation where the contribution of tertiary sector output gap is found to be the maximum followed by the primary sector and the secondary sector output gap. The prominent role of the output gap and comparatively passive role of monetary factors does not necessarily imply a non-effective monetary policy but suggests that controlling inflation only through the monetary management may not be effective.