Testing for Vertical Fiscal Externalities

The purpose of this paper is to design a test of whether the vertical external effects associated with tax base sharing among local and regional governments have become internalized via the intergovernmental transfer system. Such tests are important in the sense that the income tax rates chosen by different levels of government will generally be correlated, even if the resource allocation is optimal from society's point of view. By using panel data for the Swedish local and regional public sectors, the results imply that an increase in the regional income tax rate induces the municipalities in the region to decrease their income tax rates. In addition, we are able to reject the null hypothesis that the vertical external effects have become internalized.     

Expectations,substitution, and scrapping in a putty-clay model

The paper presents a framework for analyzing the effect of changing expectations about future prices on a firm's choice of technique, and on its anticipated scrapping of capital equipment. Assuming a putty-clay technology, particular attention is paid to the way in which the scrapping age depends on the degree of ex ante input substitution. Numerical illustrations — based on data for Norwegian manufacturing for the years 1964–1983, an ex ante technology represented by a Generalized Leontief cost function in materials, energy, labor, and capital, and an ARMA representation of the price expectation mechanism — are presented. The results indicate that the price changes in this period may have had a substantial impact on planned scrapping, and on the chosen production techniques.     

Risk as feelings or risk and feelings? A cross‐lagged panel analysis

This article focuses on affective and cognitive processes underlying the perception of risk. A limitation with most process models of affect/cognition is that they include only concurrent emotions. By following a group (n?=?129) of military sailors prospectively during an international operation, we explored longitudinal relations between perceived risk and related feelings.

Longitudinal cross‐lagged path models were estimated to explore the relationships between perceived risk, worry, and emotional distress. Results gave support to earlier studies by showing that cross‐sectional measures of risk and worry were weakly related. Across time, worry and emotional distress were reciprocally related. Perceived risk had impact on worry but not on emotional distress. Neither worry nor emotional distress influenced perceived risk.

The risk‐as‐feelings hypothesis postulates a direct effect of feelings onto behavioural choice, and a reciprocal relation between cognitive evaluations and feelings.

Our findings do not support a reciprocal relation between judgements of risk and feelings, but an impact from risk on to worry. Between various measures of feelings reciprocity seems to exist. Further replications, including also behavioural measures, are needed.     

Detrending methods and stylized facts of business cycles in Norway – an international comparison

This paper analyses the stylized facts of business cycles in Norway, by comparing different detrending methods. As the choice of the appropriate data transformation depends on the nature of the underlying dynamic properties of the time series, a set of unit root tests are first applied to the data. The detrended data are analysed, both in the time domain and the frequency domain. The evidence suggests that whereas some variables (e.g. consumption and investment) behave consistently procyclically with GDP, for other variables (e.g. real wage and prices), the business cycle properties vary considerably with the detrending methods used. The results are evaluated from a real business cycle perspective, but overall, there is little evidence to support a (supply driven) real business cycle. Symmetries in business cycles are finally analysed by comparing the business cycles in Norway and selected countries. First version received: April 1997 / Final version received: November 1999     

No progressive taxation without discrimination? On the generality of the law in the classical liberal tradition

Any liberal theory that would take seriously the question of equality before the law is bound to engage with discrimination-related matters, and so long as one is a liberal one should oppose all discrimination coming from the state. This, however, may be a double-edged sword since many classical liberals have quite readily opposed progressive taxation by invoking its discriminatory nature. Some liberals will therefore conclude that one cannot establish different tax brackets, lest taxation be illiberal. This paper endeavours to refute this assumption. Progression may be compatible with the classical liberal concern for the rule of law, provided legislative discretion on tax-related matters is duly limited by the principle of generality, as well as by a certain standard of reasonable lawmaking. Through a careful distinction between four concepts of differential treatment, this paper demonstrates that progressive tax arrangements do not necessarily discriminate against the well-off, and that it can efficiently fulfill some legitimate classical liberals objectives.     

Quelques questions concernant les principes de la théorie des probabilités

Abstract

Il y a environ deux ans qu'avec un ami j'ai fait une vi site chez un mathématicien allemand, un adepte des mathématiques pures. En nous promenant dans la vieille ville d'université, notre hôte a exprimé quelques pensées qui ont resté dans ma mémoire. Il lui semblait, disait-il, que les mathématiques de nos temps devraient de plus en plus s'approcher des applications. Après l'activité intense des derniers lustres dans le domaine des théories bien abstraites des mathématiques pures — nommons p. ex. les théorèmes d'existence, la théorie des ensembles, l'intégrabilité des fonctions etc. — ce domaine avait besoin d'être laissé en repos pour quelque temps. Il était à attendre, que les intérêts des mathématiciens se tournent vers les questions qui, — sans être moins dignes du nom de mathématiques pures, — sont plus approchées des mathématiques appliquées, et en premier lieu vers la théorie des probabilités. J'ai souvent dit, qu'il y avait deux criterès pour l'admissibilité économique ou sociale des recherches scientifiques: ou la recherche doit-eUe s'attacher à la solution de qnelque question pratique, dont l'importance est évidente, ou qu'elle do it être utile pour 1a formation de nos idées générales sur la vie et sur l'univers. Sans nous arrêter sur la question si ce sont les difficultés économiques du temps qui causent ladite tendance de la science, nous autres actuaires, nous pouvons constater avec satisfaction que la branche des mathématiques pures qui nous intéresse spécialement, la théorie des probabilités et ses ramifications, satisfait d'une manière toute particulière à l'un et à l'autre de ces critères. En effet, les principes de notre science touchent aux extrêmes régions de la pensée humaine, et nous appliquons la théorie encore à nos soucis quotidiens.     

A Tutorial on Palm Distributions for Spatial Point Processes

This tutorial provides an introduction to Palm distributions for spatial point processes. Initially, in the context of finite point processes, we give an explicit definition of Palm distributions in terms of their density functions. Then we review Palm distributions in the general case. Finally, we discuss some examples of Palm distributions for specific models and some applications.     

The impact from changes in stock market valuations on investment: new economy versus old economy

This paper investigates whether there is a different impact from changes in ‘new’ and ‘old’ economy stock valuations on private investment for seven OECD economies. A vector autoregressive model is estimated for each individual country, using quarterly data over the period 1990–2000. It is found that the impact from changes in valuations of new economy stocks to investment is roughly the same in North America and in the United Kingdom as in continental Europe. By contrast, the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on investment is, in general, larger in North America and in the United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on investment from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than for old economy stocks, whereas for North America and the United Kingdom, the impact is more similar.     

The market’s view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons

Hall and Miles (1990) suggest an approach of estimating default probabilities of banks using stock market information, and in this paper we apply an aggregated version of their approach to banking sectors around the world in both developed and emerging economies. We study the market’s assessment of the probability of systemic banking crises world wide over the last decade, including the Asian crisis 1997–1998. In addition, we investigate whether there is a relationship between the failure probability and institutional features of the actual banking sector. The quality of governance and the degree of law and order in a country is found to be significantly negatively related to the market based failure probabilities as is an explicit deposit insurance during periods of crisis.     

Strategic Regulation Policy in the Internet

Some countries are importers while others are exporters of global backbone connectivity. At the same time, input components such as local access are non-traded. This paper analyzes a non-cooperative regulatory game between importing and exporting countries, assuming that the prices of both traded and non-traded inputs can be regulated. We show that exporting countries choose a more restrictive regulation of non-traded goods than importing countries do. We further show that a requirement of international non-discrimination may hurt importing countries, and give firms producing traded inputs incentives to invest in quality degradation.