Predicting mispricing of initial public offerings

This article investigates the ability of neural network models to predict mispricing of initial public offerings (IPOs). The aim is to improve the modest explanatory power of existing models that are based on the theory of asymmetrically informed economic agents surrounding post‐issue market value of IPOs. This study develops and compares linear regression and neural network models. The results show that modelling variable interactions and non‐linearity allows a potentially fruitful approach for stagging in IPOs. Neural networks have been criticized for being a black box; however, this paper shows that, by using sensitivity analysis, neural networks can provide a reasonable explanation of their predictive behaviour and direction of association between variables. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

股东权力又迈出“一步”

今年10月，南方保健公司（Healthsouth）通过一项条例，如果股东提名的董事候选人战胜公司提名的候选人成功入主董事会，那么股东可以申请对其竞选费用中的合理部分予以报销。南方保健这一做法成为股东权力在董事选举领域的最新突破。     

Contingent Valuation Versus Choice Experiments: Estimating the Benefits of Environmentally Sensitive Areas in Scotland

This paper reports results from a study of the economic value of the conservation benefits of Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) in Scotland. The main novelty of the approach taken is in comparing two direct valuation methods, namely contingent valuation and choice experiments, to value these benefits. The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is well-established as a technique for valuing the sorts of landscape and wildlife enhancements associated with ESAs. The CVM experiment reported here uses a dichotomous choice format, and includes a new correction for part-whole bias. Choice experiments are much less used as an environmental valuation technique. We note several advantages of such experiments over CVM, and then report characteristic values and ‘programme values’ estimated using the method. This application brings to light some problems in applying the choice experiment method. Finally, we discuss the issue of benefits transfer in the context of these two approaches to valuation.     

Border tax adjustments and U.S. trade

This paper reports welfare and terms of trade effects from border adjustments in the indirect taxes used by major U.S. trading partners using a numerical general equilibrium model of world trade and production due to Whalley (1985). Where the United States is a net importer of manufactures (as with Japan and the EEC) the United States gains by having these countries administer taxes on a destination rather than an origin basis. This is because the taxes involved typically have higher rates on manufactured products, and a discriminatory origin basis tax with higher rates on exportables operates akin to an export tax.     

Incorporating choice dynamics in models of consumer behavior

This paper presents a framework for organizing and discussing factors influencing consumer choice dynamics, how these factors may be incorporated into models of buyer behavior and problems that may arise in estimating such models. The paper identifies research issues and delineates possible approaches. Proceedings of Session on Choice Dynamics at the Banff Symposium on Consumer Decision-Making and Choice Behavior. All authors share equally in content and remaining errors.     

取悦客户的上上策

用户的忠实程度对于一个公司的兴衰成败意义重大,在经济发展前景不确定的情况下更是如此.对于一个公司来说,寻找一个新的用户并与之建立商业合作关系所需要的资金是维持一个现有用户的30倍～40倍,并且这种资金常常超越了公司的成本底线.因此,公司在维持与现有用户的商业合作关系上多投入5%的资金,就能够多得到25%～55%的利润回报.