Learning,estimation, and the stability of rational expectations

The stability of the rational expectations equilibrium of a simple asset market model is studied in a situation where a group of traders learn about the relationship between the price and return on the asset using ordinary least squares estimation, and then use their estimates in predicting the return from the price. The model which they estimate is a well-specified model of the rational expectations equilibrium, but a misspecified model of the situation in which the traders are learning. It is shown that for appropriate values of a stability parameter the situation converges almost surely to the rational expectations equilibrium.     

Response by Adults to Increases in Cigarette Prices by Sociodemographic Characteristics

Cigarette excise taxes are widely viewed by health economists as an effective tool to reduce cigarette consumption. However, those opposed to increasing cigarette excise taxes often state that the taxes unfairly target certain segments of the population, notably the poor and minorities. Some of this opposition may have been fueled by a lack of understanding of how the tax will affect the health and welfare of various demographic groups of interest. This article provides guidance to policy makers by estimating price elasticities among adults by gender, income, age, and race or ethnicity. Women, adults with income at or below the median income, young adults, African-Americans, and Hispanics are most responsive to cigarette price increases. For example, adults with income at or below the median are more than four times as price-responsive as those with income above the median.     

Tour guiding,organisational culture and learning: lessons from an entrepreneurial company

This paper examines the impacts of organisational culture on the learning and development of tour guides. Drawing on a case study of a small entrepreneurial tour company, the paper considers the nature of the organisation's culture, the tours it provides, including their narrative contents and the processes of organisational learning and socialisation. The paper suggests that the development of a learning culture within such an organisation may benefit from the provision of appropriate learning opportunities among the guides and facilitators who coordinate guide development. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.     

Industry differences in the neoliberal transformation of Australian industrial relations

This article argues that our theoretical understanding of neoliberalism and empirical understanding of the transformation of industrial relations in Australia since the early 1990s can be improved by disaggregating analysis from national to industry level, and by focusing on the dual neoliberal objectives of decollectivisation and individualisation.     

Introduction to the stability of rational expectations equilibrium

This paper surveys the literature which examines the stability of the expectations that agents are assumed to have in a rational expectations equilibrium (REE). This issue is more complex than the usual statistical estimation problem because the relationship between observable variables and payoff relevant variables is endogenous. One approach taken in the literature yields convergence to a REE but requires agents to have extensive knowledge about the structure and dynamics of the model that prevails while they learn. A second approach does not assume that agents have correctly specified likelihood functions and finds that REE may not be stable.     

SHARING THE BURDEN OF FINANCING: GOVERNMENT AND HOUSEHOLD PARTNERSHIPS FOR BASIC EDUCATION1

If the goal of achieving education for all is to be met consideration has to be given to how it is financed. States in which there is least primary education are often those with unstable governments and poor tax collection systems. In such circumstances, education for all is often best achieved by partnerships between governments, families and other bodies in both the provision and funding of education.     

University revenues from technology transfer: Licensing fees vs. equity positions

This paper analyzes the financial return of universities' taking equity in their spin-off companies, and the prevailing attitudes toward taking equity. The reasons for taking equity include: the flexibility it gives licensing managers in structuring deals, the possibility that the university will still hold something of value if their technology is replaced, and, the reduced time required to generate revenue compared to a traditional license. A traditional license is preferred when the technology is not suitable for a spin-off company, or when the technology is one of the rare jackpot licenses that bring in millions of dollars every year.The financial reward of taking equity was determined by comparing the value of equity sold in public spin-off companies to the return on an average license. A traditional license consists of a license issue fee between $10,000 and $250,000 and an annual royalty on sales. In 1996 the average annual income from a traditional license was $63,832. The average value of equity sold in 16 university spin-off companies is $1,384,242. If one assumes that half the spin-offs fail before they go public, the average value of equity is $692,121. This is more than 10 times the average annual income from a traditional license, and is significantly higher than the amount usually received as a license issue fee.The high average value of equity depends on the presence of a few million-dollar equity sales. If those sales are excluded, the average value of equity is $139,722, which is within the range that can be received as a license issue fee. There is a high correlation between million-dollar equity sales and the amount of venture capital spending in the region. The million-dollar sales in this study all occurred in the top 11 states in the country in terms of venture capital spending in 1997.From a financial viewpoint it makes sense for licensing managers to take equity in their start-up companies. Our data show that even if none of the start-ups produces a million-dollar equity sale, the financial return of equity will be within the range normally received as a license issue fee. Taking equity leaves the door open for the occasional jackpot, which will bring in significantly more money than a standard license. When combined with a strong program of traditional licensing, taking equity in start-up companies maximizes the financial return that universities realize from their intellectual property.     

Book reviews

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