Partnerships and Policy in Northern Ireland

This paper evaluates the experiences of the Derry/Londonderry Partnership Board established as part of the European Union's(EU) Peace and Reconciliation Programme in Northern Ireland and suggests that it has been able to establish a distinctive approach to community consultation, strategy formulation and programme delivery. It explores the method and content of its most recent Action Plan and argues that the fealty that has traditionally informed local government discourses has been challenged by an open, pluralist and respectful analysis of positions and problems. The paper concludes by arguing that the real contribution of the Partnerships have been to create the space for civic democracy to be played out in an attempt to embed the peace process and a long-term political settlement.     

The wages of BMI: Bayesian analysis of a skewed treatment–response model with nonparametric endogeneity

We generalize the specifications used in previous studies of the effect of body mass index (BMI) on earnings by allowing the potentially endogenous BMI variable to enter the log wage equation nonparametrically. We introduce a Bayesian posterior simulator for fitting our model that permits a nonparametric treatment of the endogenous BMI variable, flexibly accommodates skew in the BMI distribution, and whose implementation requires only Gibbs steps. Using data from the 1970 British Cohort Study, our results indicate the presence of nonlinearities in the relationships between BMI and log wages that differ across men and women, and also suggest the importance of unobserved confounding for our sample of males. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non-Parametric Regression Models of Deviations from Othogonality in the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure

Regression tests of the expectations theory of the term structure typically reject the null hypothesis of orthogonality between implied forecast errors and the yield spreads. In the statistical literature on the term structure, these rejections are sometimes attributed to time-varying liquidity premia, and Engle et al . (1987) suggest that the ARCH-M model of time-variation in the liquidity premium may be sufficient to account for rejections of the expectations theory. We use non-parametric (kernel) regression to explore the regression test results on a number of data sets, and find some evidence of a persistent deviation from orthogonality for large absolute values of the spread. Incorporating ARCH-in-mean into models of the term premium indicates that this specification does explain significant time variation in liquidity premia, but the effect does not apepar to be sufficient to account for all of the deviations from orthogonality of forecast errors and spreads.     

Job quality in Europe

Promoting job quality and gender equality are objectives of the European Employment Strategy (EES) in spite of a downgrading of the attention given to both in the revised employment guidelines and the relaunch of the Lisbon Process. However, advances on both of these objectives may be important complements to the employment rate targets of the EES, as access to good quality jobs for both sexes is likely to help sustain higher employment rates. While the European Commission has a broad view of the concept of job quality in practice, it relies on a selection of labour market type indicators that say little about the quality of the actual jobs people do. Using data from the 2005 European Working Conditions survey, we analyse job quality along three dimensions: job content, autonomy and working conditions. We conclude that gender and occupational status, along with other job characteristics such as working time and sector, have more influence on an individual's job quality than the country or ‘national model’ they are situated in. Our results also demonstrate the value of developing indicators of job quality that are both gender sensitive and derived at the level of the job rather than the labour market in order to advance EU policy and academic debate on this topic.     

CARE/CEASA Roundtable on Managing Uncertainty and Risk

Two distinguished Morgan Stanley “alumni” discuss how their management of risk and uncertainty has not only preserved but increased the profitability of their businesses. In both cases—one involving a commodities trading operation and the other a long‐short hedge fund—the key has been to find cost‐effective ways to “cut off the left tails” of the distribution by avoiding naked long or short positions and creating option‐like payoffs with limited downside. In the case of the hedge fund, the combination of longs and shorts with the use of other risk‐reducing strategies has enabled the fund's managers to produce twice the market's returns with only half the volatility (and only one losing year) during the 18‐year life of the fund. In the case of the commodities trading operation, the strategy is described as combining ownership of physical assets with the use of option pricing models to create what amount to “long gamma positions in the asset” that “produce payoffs regardless of whether the asset goes up or down in value.”     

A Theory of Broadcast Media Concentration and Commercial Advertising

We analyze a model in which the interaction of broadcasters, advertisers, and consumers determines the level of nonadvertising broadcasting produced and consumed. Our main finding is that an increase in concentration in broadcast media industries may lead to a decrease in the total amount of nonadvertising broadcasting. The strength of this inverse relationship depends, in part, on the behavioral response of the consumers to changes in advertising intensities. We also present a numerical general equilibrium solution to our model and demonstrate a positive relationship between consumer welfare and the number of firms in the broadcast industry.