How U.S. Farm Programs and Crop Revenue Insurance Affect Returns to Farm Land

A simulation model incorporating price and yield variability is used to examine the impact of government farm program and crop revenue coverage (CRC) insurance payments on the probability distribution of returns to land. Results indicate that Marketing Loan Program payments have the greatest impact on both the mean and standard deviation of returns. Agricultural Market Transition Act payments shift the distribution of returns without changing the variability, creating a reduction in relative risk. Market loss assistance payments increase the mean, reduce variability, and increase skewness. When combined, farm programs substantially increase the value that risk-averse producers place on the residual returns to land and substantially reduce the certainty equivalent value of CRC.     

Binomial Option Pricing Biases and Inconsistent Implied Volatilities

We evaluate the binomial option pricing methodology (OPM) by examining simulated portfolio strategies. A key aspect of our study involves sampling from the empirical distribution of observed equity returns. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we generate equity prices under known volatility and return parameters. We price American–style put options on the equity and evaluate the risk–adjusted performance of various strategies that require writing put options with different maturities and moneyness characteristics. The performance of these strategies is compared to an alternative strategy of investing in the underlying equity. The relative performance of the strategies allows us to identify biases in the binomial OPM leading to the well–known volatility smile . By adjusting option prices so as to rule out dominated option strategies in a mean–variance context, we are able to reduce the pricing errors of the OPM with respect to option prices obtained from the LIFFE. Our results suggest that a simple recalibration of inputs may improve binomial OPM performance.     

Was there too little entry during the Dot Com Era?

We present four stylized facts about the Dot Com Era: (1) there was a widespread belief in a Get Big Fast business strategy, (2) the increase and decrease in public and private equity investment was most prominent in the Internet and information technology sectors, (3) the survival rate of dot com firms is on par with or higher than other emerging industries, and (4) firm survival is independent of private equity funding. To connect these findings we offer a herding model that accommodates a divergence between the information and incentives of venture capitalists and their investors. A Get Big Fast belief cascade could have led to overly focused investment in too few Internet startups and, as a result, too little entry.     

Policy–making in the EU: the bananarama story, the WTO and policy transparency

The EU banana policy is manifestly bad. But despite a healthy policy transparency process and comprehensive public criticisms of its extreme inefficiencies, its costs have been growing progressively worse and more disruptive of international commerce. This raises serious doubts about the WTO process, and the policy transparency process itself. At the very least, the EU bananarama story told here means we should not be complacent about either.     

Economic Depreciation of Residential Real Estate: Microlevel Space and Time Analysis

Three elements in the study of real estate depreciation that warrant further consideration are uncovered: the spatial variation of depreciation on a micro scale, the variability of depreciation within a single market across time and the recognition of land value as an influence in modeling real property prices. Taken together, these three dimensions provide an opportunity to further expand the understanding of residential economic depreciation while enhancing the predictive power of real estate market models. The analytical results, utilizing a land-value-adjusted hedonic model, indicate that both the intramarket location and the year in which the property sold have significant impacts on the observed rate of economic depreciation. Such information is vitally important to policymakers and others interested in accurate modeling of real estate markets.     

Using GDSS to examine the future European automobile industry

Group decision support systems (GDSS) are interactive computer software that supports both group communication and decision making. A prototype GDSS named DELAWARE, was applied to collect judgment and opinion from experts, on the future business environment of the automobile industry in Europe. This article describes the communication processes and the decision-making content embodied within the DELAWARE application     

Legal Restrictions in Personal Loan Markets

This study examines the pricing of personal loans in the form of second mortgages to determine whether state-specific default laws have an effect on the availability and cost of that debt. We examine the pricing of loans to higher risk borrowers and whether borrowers in states that limit lender ability to seek default remedies pay higher credit costs. Our results indicate that, for the most part, lenders rationally price loans to higher risk borrowers. However, when we focus on borrowers with low credit scores, the results indicate that mean actual loan rates are higher than those predicted by our model. The results also indicate that state-specific default laws have an effect on the price of credit. Finally, the results show that there is a greater degree of error in the pricing of second mortgage loans to borrowers with low credit scores than to borrowers with high credit scores.